November 2009 Archive for The Lean Hog Perspective

Hog & Corn Comments – 11/30/09 The buying continues in grain

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CORN – Mar ‘10 Electronic
Open – $4.12, High – $4.20 1/4, Low – $4.07 1/4, Close – $4.17 1/2 Up $.04
Thoughts – Long Term (into February) – Sideways

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Mar ‘10: The corn market was relatively indecisive today as we traded both sides of unchanged.  The outside markets are still trying to assess the damage if any from the Dubai debt issues so the Dow Jones was under pressure for most of the trading session and the dollar held steady around unchanged.  The March '10 corn contract currently has a double top in place at $4.25 so with that in mind I want to stay neutral in positions until the market makes two consecutive closes above the $4.25 level.

The reason we need to pay attention to the affects of the Dubai issue is because investors may seek to buy the dollar as a "flight to safety" trade.  If this is the case then we could see pressure on the commodities markets as traders could unwind some of the long commodities due to a weak dollar trade.  Thus far the Dubai issue has been just news and if you listen to some of the financial news channels out there you will probably find as many bulls and you will bears when it comes to the stock market so only time will tell with this one.

The European banks have much more exposure to this potential problem compared to the United States.  Today a strategist on CNBC estimated the debt that is being considered at risk from a United States standpoint is $10 billion where AIG was around $180 billion in an attempt to quantify the potential issue.

We can look for the markets to become more and more volatile between now and the first of the year as we have to move through the holidays.  Nothing has really changed in my opinion, the funds will decide where this market goes and that is why I think the Dubai news is worth paying attention to.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Mar ‘10 Corn – Support/Resistance for 12-01-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.41
(R2) Resistance 2: $4.28
(R1) Resistance 1: $4.22 3/4
Today’s close: $4.17 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $4.15
(S2) Support 2: $4.09 3/4
(S3) Support 3: $3.89
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MEAL – Jan '10 Electronic
Open – $314.20, High – $318.50, Low – $312.50, Close – $315.20 Up $.70
Thoughts – Long Term (into February '10) – Sideways

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Jan ‘10 meal: Meal has moved higher as a benefactor of fund buying but the million dollar question is will it continue.  There is some resistance at $316.70 in the Jan '10 contract and if we get two consecutive closes above this level we could see additional upside.  The next target would be $336.00 but again we need to see the market close above $316.70  a couple of times first.  I have been saying for awhile that 74.94 was a key level of support in the Dollar and it continues to hold.

The market traded below 74.94 for the last four weeks, this week included but it has always closed above 74.94 for the week.  Again, for me the dollar is searching for a bottom in this area if it can't close two consecutive weeks below 74.94.  If traders end up buying the dollar as a "flight to safety" trade then this could be what the market needs to provide a short-term bottom for the dollar.

We are still on the sideline in meal and will continue to be for now as we begin to move through the holiday season.  As always if there is profit in a group of hogs with corn and meal prices at current levels just lock it in!

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high on tomorrow.

Jan ‘10 Meal – Support/Resistance for 12-01-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $327.40
(R2) Resistance 2: $321.40
(R1) Resistance 1: $318.30
Today’s close: $315.20
(S1) Support 1: $312.30
(S2) Support 2: $309.40
(S3) Support 3: $303.40

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HOGS – Feb ‘10 GLOBEX
Open – $67.55, High – $67.70, Low – $66.35, Close – $66.875 Down $.45
Thoughts – Long Term (into February) – Neutral

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Hog margins are starting to show some good profit for the coming year.  If you would like to run a profitability crush for your operation, email us at leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com.

Feb ‘10 hogs: The Feb '10 contract sold off today in conjunction with weaker cash bids.  I had a cycle high projection for November 23rd in the Feb '10 contract but the market has rallied nearly another $2.00 cwt from that point.  The market has been overbought on the daily chart for several days now and is due for a correction back toward the $64.525 area in the Feb '10 contract.  Again like all of the commodities we are at the mercy of the dollar, if it goes lower the hogs go higher and if the dollar moves higher we could see hogs move lower.

There is news of a mutated strain of the H1N1 flu in several countries around the world, the United States included.  It has been both milder and worse than the 2009 H1N1 strain so not much is known about this mutated variety at this time but the World Health Organization is monitoring it.  The Feb '10 contract has a nice uptrend going since the August low but there are some indicators pointing to a retracement lower.

$66.55 is an area of support for the Feb contract and if we close above this price on Friday we should target $70.675 in the near future.  There is a POTENTIAL sell signal on the weekly chart at $65.00, if Feb '10 closes below $65.00 this Friday that would trigger the sell signal.  If the market does NOT settle below $65.00 by this Friday the signal is null and void.  This signal is only good if the market gets as low as $65.00, it is not good at current levels.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Feb ‘10 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 12-01-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $69.675
(R2) Resistance 2: $68.325
(R1) Resistance 1: $67.60
Today’s close: $66.875
(S1) Support 1: $66.25
(S2) Support 2: $65.625
(S3) Support 3: $64.275
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

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Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Hog & Corn Comments – 11/25/09 Hogs trade higher on good volume

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THERE WILL BE NO COMMENTS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK.  There are no markets Thursday and grains and livestock close at noon on Friday.

CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $3.77 1/4, High – $3.93 3/4, Low – $3.77, Close – $3.92 Up $.16
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09: The corn market did a complete 180 from yesterday.  The U.S. Dollar Index made a fresh low today getting things rolling in the overnight session and it carried through to the day session as well.  If the dollar closes below 74.679 this week and next, the dollar could be in serious trouble.  If the dollar does continue its decline we should see more fund buying come into the market which will create more volatility.

For now the same rule applies for me, $4.13 1/2 is the area Dec '09 corn has to close above before I get excited about another big move higher.  Fundamentally I'm not bullish at these levels but the outside influences have more money than those that trade fundamentals therefore they move the market.  I still have some negative setups on the weekly chart for Dec '09 corn as long as we close below $4.03 on Friday.

Today's trade was very thin as a lot of people who are normally in the market are taking time off for the holiday so it is easy for a market to get volatile when there are fewer participants.  The market made it back above the key level of resistance at $3.84 1/4 so this area will now become support once again.  We are still on the sideline with corn at this time and will be here until the market tells us differently.  If you have good margins in hogs purchased don't waste time, lock in your profits and use options for opportunity if it works for you.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low on Friday.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-27-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.21
(R2) Resistance 2: $4.04 1/4
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.98 1/4
Today’s close: $3.92
(S1) Support 1: $3.81 1/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.70 3/4
(S3) Support 3: $3.62
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MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $315.70, High – $319.90, Low – $312.50, Close – $318.00 Up $2.60
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09 meal: Meal started off higher then sold off but found support around noon and traded higher into the end of the day.  The Dec '09 contract is looking like it is prepared to top but once again it is hard to make that case with the fund buying that has taken place.  The dollar dropped hard after the grain session close which should add to the trader's appetite for commodities.  I don't have much more to say about meal other than watch the dollar as it's at an important level.

Technically speaking, even though the market seems balanced, the overall look of the way we have traded the last several days makes me think we are still vulnerable to a retracement to lower levels.  We are still on the sideline in meal and will continue to be for now.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low on Friday.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-27-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $332.00
(R2) Resistance 2: $324.40
(R1) Resistance 1: $321.20
Today’s close: $318.00
(S1) Support 1: $313.60
(S2) Support 2: $309.20
(S3) Support 3: $301.60

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HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $59.00, High – $60.075, Low – $58.825, Close – $59.425 Up $.80
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

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Hog margins are starting to show some good profit for the coming year.  If you would like to run a profitability crush for your operation, email us at leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com.

Dec ‘09 hogs: The Dec '09 hogs are on a roll!  We had good volume for a day before a holiday trade.  The cash prices were once again higher at noon along with an encouraging cutout report.  I would expect both cash and cutout to be higher tonight and I believe that is what the market was trading today as well.  If the Dec '09 contract closes above $59.225 on Friday and preferably next Friday too, we could see a test of $64.675 which is our next probable target.

Like a broken record, the dollar is a key player in higher hog prices.  If the dollar continues its weakness we could see additional buying in hogs.  This may also be a great opportunity to scale into  some sales if you can make a profit.  Pardon the pun but I wouldn't go hog wild with sales unless you are wildly profitable.  The dollar is at a VERY key level and needs to rally back above 74.679 by next Friday otherwise we could see it start another leg lower toward 70.69.

We continue to hold our short futures long call option position in the Dec '09 contract for now and will do so for the time being so we have downside risk protected in the market and the upside opportunity is completely open.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early high on Friday.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-27-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $61.925
(R2) Resistance 2: $60.70
(R1) Resistance 1: $60.05
Today’s close: $59.425
(S1) Support 1: $58.80
(S2) Support 2: $58.20
(S3) Support 3: $56.925
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Hog & Corn Comments – 11/24/09 Feed grains continue their sell off

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Hog margins are starting to show some good profit for the coming year.  If you would like to run a profitability crush for your operation, email us at leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com.

CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $3.86, High – $3.87 1/4, Low – $3.74 1/2, Close – $3.76 Down $.11 1/4
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09: The corn market followed through to the downside today breaking through a key support level of $3.84 1/4 and $3.78.  With the Dec corn closing below $3.78 it builds a case that $3.59 1/4 could be tested, however, I would like to see tomorrow close below $3.78 as well.  I'm not sure if the index funds are taking a break for the holiday or if they have finished their buying in corn.  It is so tough to say because yesterday's market suggested that all grains should have been higher judging by the outside markets but it didn't happen.

Technically speaking I see the corn market going lower but as I've said before the funds have a lot to say about what direction the market moves.  $3.57 3/4 is the actual target area that Dec corn should shoot for if it makes a 50% retracement back to the $3.02 low.  We already tested $3.59 1/4 once a few weeks back so if $3.57 3/4 doesn't hold this time we could see more selling to get the market to $3.44 1/2 and ultimately $3.02 but I'm not sure funds will let the market drop as far as $3.02.

We are still on the sideline with corn at this time and will be here until the market tells us differently.  If you have good margins in hogs purchased don't waste, lock in your profits and use options for opportunity if it works for you.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-25-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.92
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.84
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.79 1/4
Today’s close: $3.76
(S1) Support 1: $3.71 1/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.66 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.53 3/4
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MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $315.60, High – $317.30, Low – $311.20, Close – $315.40 Down $.20
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09 meal: Meal experienced continued weakness today but not near as much as the corn market.  The sell signal from yesterday at $319.50 is still in place but the market is acting like it is comfortable with the price level it currently at.  Yesterday we started higher and sold off and today we started lower and experienced buying at lower prices so the market seems content with its current price level for the time being.

Even though the market seems balanced the overall look of the way we have traded the last several days makes me think we are still vulnerable to a retracement to lower levels.  We are still on the sideline in meal and will continue to be for now.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-25-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $326.80
(R2) Resistance 2: $320.70
(R1) Resistance 1: $318.00
Today’s close: $315.40
(S1) Support 1: $311.90
(S2) Support 2: $308.50
(S3) Support 3: $302.40

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $58.30, High – $58.95, Low – $57.775, Close – $58.625 Up $.325
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

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Dec ‘09 hogs: The Dec '09 hogs added to yesterday's rally in quiet fashion today as volume was low due to the Thanksgiving holiday.  I spoke yesterday of a POTENTIAL island top if the market opened below yesterday's low of $57.975 but it didn't, it opened at $58.30 so that thought is null and void.  The market did fill the gap it left on yesterday's open which is healthy for the market to do, however, the daily range from open to close is getting smaller as it moves higher and is a bit concerning for higher prices.

We are close to the $59.225 level of resistance I spoke of a few weeks ago but failed to reach.  The high for today was within $.275 of this resistance level and I would expect an actual test of the $59.225 at some point in the near future.  The cash market was higher this morning in IA/MN and if the cash market does continue to move higher we should see the lean hog index move higher and support the Dec '09 prices at current levels. 

In my opinion, the weak dollar has provided the hog export business a boost and hopefully the exports will grow and get this industry back on its feet.  The downside is if the dollar bottoms and moves higher we could see the exports back off but we could also see fund money leave commodities bringing both feed and hog prices down.  Another downside thought would be as soon as profits return to the industry production may increase to try and make up for lost equity which could send us right back down the path of negative returns.

We continue to hold our short futures long call option position in the Dec '09 contract for now and will do so for the time being so we have downside risk protected in the market and the upside opportunity is completely open.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early high tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-25-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $60.80
(R2) Resistance 2: $59.625
(R1) Resistance 1: $59.125
Today’s close: $58.625
(S1) Support 1: $57.95
(S2) Support 2: $57.275
(S3) Support 3: $56.10
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Hog & Corn Comments – 11/23/09 Feed grains show signs of a short-term top

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THERE WILL BE NO COMMENTS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK.

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Hog margins are starting to show some good profit for the coming year.  If you would like to run a profitability crush for your operation, email us at leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com.

CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $3.91, High – $4.03, Low – $3.85, Close – $3.87 1/4 Down $.03 3/4
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09: The Dec '09 corn contract looked like it was going to make a run at last week's high of $4.09 1/2 but it only made it to $4.03 then fell to new a new session low.  The weekly chart is currently showing three potential signals of a top in the corn market.  We need to see confirmation but if the Dec '09 contract settles below $4.03 on Friday then one is confirmed.  $3.84 1/4 is a 50% retracement back to the $3.59 1/4 low we saw on Nov 2nd, 2009.  The $3.84 area should provide some support but if it doesn't we could see $3.78 and then back to $3.59 1/4.

We are on the sideline with corn at this time; we made an early purchase of corn this morning but by the end of the day were stopped out.  The Dow Jones was higher, crude oil was higher and the dollar was much weaker this morning but it seems as though index funds must be scaling back on their purchases because the recipe was ripe for higher prices today. 

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-24-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.27 1/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $4.09 1/2
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.91 3/4
Today’s close: $3.87 1/4
(S1) Support 1: $3.80 1/2
(S2) Support 2: $3.73 3/4
(S3) Support 3: $3.55 3/4
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MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $316.90, High – $322.50, Low – $314.10, Close – $315.60 Down $1.50
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09 meal: Meal posted a sell signal today at $319.50 with a risk management buy stop at $324.00.  The Ag markets had a tough day today trying to get something going to the upside and with the sell signal we had today I want to be very cautious about meal.  The tough part about saying this is this sell signal goes out the window if the funds decide they want to own more!  If profitability works for you then you should purchase some call options or if you are happy with your profits then lock in the price, always do what is right for your operation. 

Like corn we entered some long positions in meal today but by the end of the day we were stopped out and are on the sidelines again.  Today's close concerns me from a price perspective because it looks like we could move lower for the time being.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-24-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $325.80
(R2) Resistance 2: $320.70
(R1) Resistance 1: $317.40
Today’s close: $315.60
(S1) Support 1: $312.30
(S2) Support 2: $309.00
(S3) Support 3: $300.60

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HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $58.825, High – $56.75, Low – $57.975, Close – $58.30 Up $.70
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

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Dec ‘09 hogs: The Dec '09 hogs continued to climb today off of a weak dollar and packers being short bought for this week.  The opening was a negative one in the sense that the market opened above Friday's high (gap higher) and typically when the market does that it is a warning that a top may be close by; however, the actual sell signal comes when the market trades below the previous high.  Friday's high was $57.85 but the market never traded that low today so now there is the POTENTIAL for an island top if the market opens below today's low of $57.975. 

The Dec '09 contract still has a good lead on the cash index which is at $53.92 so the market must be pretty comfortable thinking that the cash will come up to meet the futures into the December expiration.  The intra-day charts suggest that we will have an early high and a late low tomorrow.  Cash was higher at noon and I would expect it to be higher this afternoon as well which could lend more support to the market.

We continue to hold our short futures long call option position in the Dec '09 contract for now and will do so for the time being so we have downside risk protected in the market and the upside opportunity is completely open.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-24-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $59.825
(R2) Resistance 2: $59.10
(R1) Resistance 1: $58.70
Today’s close: $58.30
(S1) Support 1: $57.975
(S2) Support 2: $57.65
(S3) Support 3: $56.925
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Hog & Corn Comments – 11/17/09 Dec hogs have a bullish reversal

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CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $4.00 1/2, High – $4.04 1/4, Low – $3.96 3/4, Close – $4.02 Down $.00 1/4
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09: The Dec '09 corn contract made a new high at $4.04 1/2 today which triggered a sell signal at $4.02 1/4 on a stop which was hit.  The risk management buy stop for this position is $4.06 1/2.  If this sell signal is good we could see the Dec '09 corn market drop hard, however, it is tough to say that right now with amount of outside buying that has come into the market.  It is hard to get a handle on these markets when they don't respect your indicators.  This happens from time to time and is usually for a short period in the grand scheme but it isn't fun to go through while you are there.

As mentioned yesterday $4.13 1/2 is still the big number the market needs to get above before we get off to the races again.  Nothing has changed in with our position we are still on the sidelines for now and having upside in hogs allows us to do so.  If the market makes a run for $4.13 1/2 then my attitude may change but for now the sideline is where we are.  The buying we have experienced has been, in my opinion, U.S. Dollar related and the comments from Chairman Bernanke yesterday seemed to have given some the dollar some support as it traded a lot higher today.

I've made comments over the past month or so that the dollar could be taking a breather from the downside unless we had two consecutive closes below 74.94 which we have failed to do thus far.  As long as 74.94 holds we could see a short-term rally in the dollar.  I will say if we have two weekly closes below 74.94 all bets are off; we could see a test of 72.18 but for now I'm considering the 74.94 area as good support.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-18-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.16
(R2) Resistance 2: $4.08 1/2
(R1) Resistance 1: $4.05 1/4
Today’s close: $4.02
(S1) Support 1: $3.97 1/2
(S2) Support 2: $3.93 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.86
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MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $304.00, High – $307.60, Low – $302.20, Close – $308.70 Up $4.30
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09 meal: Meal again struggled today as soybeans traded higher for a good portion of the market session as meal lagged.  As I said yesterday $312.50 is a key level of resistance as I see it and right now we are holding a neutral position in meal.  If the market closes two consecutive days above $312.50 I may change my mind but for now we are waiting.  Dec '09 meal has traded above $307.30 eight times since the beginning of October 2009 but has failed to get a daily close above this price with the exception of today.  If we close above $307.30 again tomorrow then we could be poised to go for the $312.50 target.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-18-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $319.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $312.70
(R1) Resistance 1: $310.20
Today’s close: $308.70
(S1) Support 1: $303.80
(S2) Support 2: $299.70
(S3) Support 3: $293.20

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $55.05, High – $56.075, Low – $54.55, Close – $56.50 Up $1.45
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

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Dec ‘09 hogs: The Dec '09 managed to get a nice rally going around noon as the noon cutout report showed some possible support for cutout values this afternoon.  The problem with the noon cutout report and the afternoon report is there isn't always a correlation; however, it does give some general direction or feel.  The volume today was good and it seemed as if

had an up and down kind of day as we were up early until the noon cash report came out with weaker cash quotes.  The problem with the noon report is you really can't believe much that is on it because it changes so much by the end of the day especially if the noon report is at an extreme either up or down.  Today the quotes came in a couple dollars lower in the Midwest and I wouldn't be surprised to see the afternoon report come in down less than a dollar.  It is purely a guess on my part but that's the way the reporting seems to work.

I said the market hadn't taken out last Thursday's high of $55.60 but today we did in conjunction with a reversal day back to the upside.  The market will need follow through buying tomorrow to provide me with good evidence that we have turned.  Our next level of resistance is $56.825 and then $58.40 becomes the next number but I would like to see the market close above $56.325 again tomorrow before I look toward $58.40 again.

The intra-day chart looks like we could see the needed follow through buying tomorrow to keep the momentum rolling to the upside.  I'm expecting an early low again tomorrow and look for the market to strengthen as the day progresses.

We continue to hold our short futures long call option position in the Dec '09 contract for now and will do so for the time being so we have downside risk protected in the market and the upside opportunity is completely open.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-18-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $59.40
(R2) Resistance 2: $57.80
(R1) Resistance 1: $57.10
Today’s close: $56.40
(S1) Support 1: $55.825
(S2) Support 2: $55.125
(S3) Support 3: $53.85
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Hog & Corn Comments – 11/16/09 More buying in corn

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CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $3.93, High – $4.02 1/2, Low – $3.90 3/4, Close – $4.02 1/4 Up $.11 3/4
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09: The corn market wanted to be firm today and got off to an excellent start but then failed to hold its gains early.  Corn harvest has made good strides in the days that have been allowed for harvest activity.  If there is one thing certain about the American farmer, it's their work ethic.  If they are given a window of opportunity you can be assured they will rise up and work as long and hard as they need to accomplish the task at hand and this year's harvest is no exception.

$4.13 1/2 remains a key number in the Dec '09 corn, if the market can close above this level for two consecutive days then we open the hatch for more upside but until then we are sitting on the sidelines.  The buying that is happening is due to U.S. Dollar Index related inflationary hedging.  The money moving into the market has no bias based on the crop in the field it is all based on one simple rule, dollar weak, commodities strong.  The tough part about trying to read a market in this environment is you need to through logic out the window.  The reasons for buying are that of issues that don't necessarily have anything to do with the industry.

Fed. Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke today and said interest rates will stay low for an extended period of time but also the Gov will be monitoring the weak dollar very closely as well.  Here is a link to an article from CNBC that will give more details; click here for story.  When Mr. Bernanke was speaking is when the corn market declined to its lowest level of the day session but after the speech was finished the market rebounded back toward its previous levels.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-17-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.22
(R2) Resistance 2: $4.10 1/4
(R1) Resistance 1: $4.06 1/4
Today’s close: $4.02 1/4
(S1) Support 1: $3.981/2
(S2) Support 2: $3.94 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.86 3/4
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MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $305.70, High – $308.70, Low – $301.90, Close – $304.40 Up $3.30
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09 meal: Meal struggled the most out of the feed grains today.  Meal was also the one that rallied the most last week when there were concerns over mold in corn and the thought was livestock producers would have to feed more meal to replace the reduction in DDG's (Dried Distillers Grain).  Like corn we are on the sideline for now in soybean meal as we have stepped aside to allow the influx of funds come into the market.  $312.50 is a key number for me and if we close above this level for two consecutive days then it will get my attention but for now we wait.

Dec '09 meal has traded above $307.30 eight times since the beginning of October 2009 but has failed to get a daily close above this price.  $307.30 has been good resistance so we will continue to monitor the meal as it continually fails against $307.30.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-17-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $318.60
(R2) Resistance 2: $311.80
(R1) Resistance 1: $308.10
Today’s close: $304.40
(S1) Support 1: $301.30
(S2) Support 2: $298.20
(S3) Support 3: $292.40

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $54.90, High – $55.50, Low – $54.80, Close – $54.95 Down $.05
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

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Dec ‘09 hogs: The Dec '09 had an up and down kind of day as we were up early until the noon cash report came out with weaker cash quotes.  The problem with the noon report is you really can't believe much that is on it because it changes so much by the end of the day especially if the noon report is at an extreme either up or down.  Today the quotes came in a couple dollars lower in the Midwest and I wouldn't be surprised to see the afternoon report come in down less than a dollar.  It is purely a guess on my part but that's the way the reporting seems to work.

As of right now the Dec '09 contract is still trending lower off of our last swing high of $58.40 and we have yet to take out the high from last Thursday of $55.60 which tells me the market remains in retreat mode for now.  The market has tested the $55.25 area of resistance the last two day's but has failed to close above it, this tells me we should test $54.30 and if we close below that we could see $52.10 again in the near future.

There was another animal cruelty video that surfaced today as a worker used a hidden video camera to document some of the activities that went on in a hog farm in Central Pennsylvania.  The video was posted on Foxnews.com as the main headline for at least a half an hour or more before it was moved to a secondary headline that was still at the top of the web page.  I don't think this video will have any effect of the market but the hog industry sure doesn't need any more negativity!

We continue to hold our short futures long call option position in the Dec '09 contract for now and will do so for the time being.

We remain in our synthetic put positions for now so we have downside risk protected in the market and the upside opportunity is completely open.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-17-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $56.475
(R2) Resistance 2: $55.75
(R1) Resistance 1: $55.35
Today’s close: $54.95
(S1) Support 1: $54.65
(S2) Support 2: $54.375
(S3) Support 3: $53.675
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Hog & Corn Comments – 11/10/09 Corn stands firm on its own today, hogs lower.

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CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $3.84, High – $3.97, Low – $3.79 1/4, Close – $3.94 1/2 Up $.08 1/2
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09: The market traded both sides of unchanged today with a slightly friendly report from the USDA this morning.  The report was somewhat offset because the soybean portion of the report was negative and hindered a higher opening for corn.  The market opened lower then traded higher before backing off again until noon when it managed to find new life to the upside again.  It is interesting when you look for correlations between corn and the dollar or crude.  Sometimes it is there and sometimes it isn't, like today for example crude was lower and the dollar was higher as corn rallied at noon to turn the market positive again.

We are on the sidelines in corn right now as the weather forecast is now drier again for the weekend, the forecast has flip flopped so many times in the past month it is hard to keep track!  Logic would say we should experience good harvest progress for the next week or so and logic would suggest pressure on the market but as I've said before sometimes logic is an irrational word.  We are going to remain on the sidelines for now until this market settles down.  There seems to be buying coming at times that don't make sense and I feel there will be opportunities to own corn at a lower price that we have today however I could change my mind tomorrow so as always do what is right for you and your operation!

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-11-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.13 1/2
(R2) Resistance 2: $4.08
(R1) Resistance 1: $4.01 1/4
Today’s close: $3.94 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.901/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.83 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.72 1/2
_________________________________________________________________________

MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $293.40, High – $294.20, Low – $284.00, Close – $288.20 Down $6.10
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09 meal: Meal took it on the chin today as it tested the support area of $283.40 I spoke of in my last my last post.  It feels like the $283.40 area wants to hold as our low for now but I need more confirmation to be comfortable with it.  If $283.40 doesn't hold then we could see a test of $266.10 but I'm not confidant we are going to reach that level but we have also gotten a bearish soybean report since I made this comment last week.

For now I'm sticking with my thought of the $283.40 area holding support but if we closed two consecutive day's below $283.40 then we could certainly test $266.10.  We will look for an opportunity to establish our long meal positions when the market dictates this type of move and it could come sooner rather than later judging by the way the charts are setting up.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-11-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $309.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $299.00
(R1) Resistance 1: $293.60
Today’s close: $288.20
(S1) Support 1: $283.40
(S2) Support 2: $278.60
(S3) Support 3: $268.40

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $55.65, High – $56.075, Low – $55.225, Close – $55.625 Down $.175
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

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Dec ‘09 hogs: The Dec '09 hogs were very quiet today as today marks day three of the Goldman roll which typically makes a mess of the market as they try to execute their business.  The last day of the roll should conclude on Thursday of this week.  The market looks like it could be slowing down and looking for a small pop higher as we move forward over the coming day or two.  The intra-day charts suggest higher prices for tomorrow which I would agree with.

I still have the market moving lower over time into the beginning of next week but that isn't to say we will not have fluctuation between now and then.  Today's low was exactly 50% of the way back to the $52.10 low we had on Oct 20th.  Typically the markets will retrace to 50% of a move to see if it can find more buyers if the market is trending higher or more sellers if the market is trending lower.  Thus far the market has found support at the $55.25 area although I think we could have one more test of this level to make sure the market wants to make another move higher.

This Friday's close will give us more indication of market direction.  If the market closes below last week's low of $55.625 it will be the first time since the week of Aug 3rd that we have done so in the Dec '09 contract.  If we close below $55.625 on Friday I will be looking for more downside next week but if we don't then this setback that we've had for the last few trading sessions could just be profit taking action.

We remain in our synthetic put positions for now so we have downside risk protected in the market and the upside opportunity is completely open.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-11-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $57.40
(R2) Resistance 2: $56.55
(R1) Resistance 1: $56.175
Today’s close: $55.625
(S1) Support 1: $55.325
(S2) Support 2: $54.85
(S3) Support 3: $54.00
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Hog & Corn Comments – 11/05/09 Another downside reversal in Dec ‘09 hogs

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CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $3.83 3/4, High – $3.87 1/2, Low – $3.76, Close – $3.76 1/2 Down $.07 1/2
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09: Again we falter with good harvest weather in the forecast, the fund buying all but dead and the dollar index trading higher. The excitement wasn't there this morning before the market opened.  The overnight session traded higher but ultimately settled unchanged going into the day session.  As mentioned the weather is benefits better harvest progress for next week and if producers can get in the fields and actually keep going we could knock out a lot of corn in the coming days.  Assuming the bushels are still there, we could/should see some hedge pressure come into the market due to the presumed excess of bushels that can't be stored on the farm.

As stated yesterday we exited our long corn futures and are waiting for an opportunity to jump back in, we haven't yet but we are monitoring it closely.  We will see how the market acts around the $3.74 to $3.78 area over the next day or two and decide from there.  If we close below $3.78 for two consecutive days, today being day one, then we have some support at $3.74 but ultimately $3.59 1/4.  Don't be fooled, I'm sure we can change things back to the upside again if the weather should turn wet again but for now assuming it doesn't $3.78 needs to hold if the market wants to rally.

If you have no coverage I would suggest you talk with your broker and buy some out of the money calls for catastrophic protection if this thing really gets moving.  If $4.13 1/2 is breached and we close above it for two consecutive days the markets next target is the summer high of $4.73 1/2.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-06-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.03
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.91 1/2
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.84
Today’s close: $3.76 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.72 1/2
(S2) Support 2: $3.68 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.57
_________________________________________________________________________

MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $300.60, High – $301.50, Low – $291.20, Close – $291.20 Down $10.30
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09 meal: Meal finally broke today and we exited our long meal position near where we got in around $297.50 basis the Dec '09 contract.  The market looks like it wants to test the $288.80 number that it flirted with last week and if $288.80 doesn't hold support then we could test $283.40 and ultimately $266.10.  I'm not confident that $266.10 is attainable at this point but it isn't out of the question.  I feel we should see good support at $283.40 if we get there.

We will look to re-enter our meal hedges at a lower level unless the market tells us to do it before.  Soybeans were hit hard today and got to almost 50% of a limit move which is how far the Dec '09 meal got, down over $10.00/ton at one point.  Longer-term the weekly charts still point to higher meal prices as long as $266.40 holds in the Dec contract so any price breaks deserve attention if you need to lock in meal.  As always make sure these statements hold true to you and your situation, I am purely giving opinions on market price and not the actual profitability of your operation.

Again as mentioned before it is basically up to the funds if they want to keep this market at this level, if their appetite for meal has expired then I would look for the market to back off but they are ultimately in control right now.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-06-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $311.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $305.00
(R1) Resistance 1: $298.10
Today’s close: $291.20
(S1) Support 1: $287.80
(S2) Support 2: $284.40
(S3) Support 3: $274.10

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $58.00, High – $58.40, Low – $56.575, Close – $56.60 Down $1.20
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

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Dec ‘09 hogs: The Dec '09 hogs rallied on the open but that was as far as they got, it was all downhill from there.  I was expecting an early low today which was the exact opposite of what happened.  As I've been saying for the last couple of days we have been showing signs of a top but it is hard to make a call anymore because the funds buy when they want to buy regardless of fundamentals or technical considerations. 

We had a downside reversal in hogs similar to the one we had on October 20th and we all know that was a good signal (insert sarcasm here).  If the signal indeed is good then we should expect more selling tomorrow and begin trending lower from here.  Again I have a tough time saying the rally is done because I don't know what the funds appetite for lean hog futures is so I'm hesitant.  I've been saying for some time now to get hedge coverage in place via a known risk strategy and I still agree with that logic as the futures still have a lead on cash. 

I hear rumblings of weaker product values coming but the cutout remains solid inching higher almost daily so this is another reason to have your upside open in case we see demand pick up further. I am expecting an early low tomorrow and we could rally back to $57.47 in the Dec '09 contract and if we fail to trade above that level for an hour or so then we could fall back toward today's low of $56.57 and try to make a new low.  So watch for $57.47 tomorrow and if the market manages to trade above it for around an hour then we could remain firm the balance of the day but if it can't trade above this level for the same amount of time then we could fall off at the end of the day.  

Under normal (what's normal anymore?) market conditions I would typically say that the $59.225 upside target area is off the table with the downside reversal we had today but I'm not going to say that just yet, I want to see how we close tomorrow first.  The U.S. Dollar Index was hardly a factor today as it traded higher but nothing significant compared to the movement in recent days.

We remain in our synthetic put positions for now so we have downside risk protected in the market and the upside opportunity is completely open.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-06-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $59.075
(R2) Resistance 2: $57.90
(R1) Resistance 1: $57.25
Today’s close: $56.60
(S1) Support 1: $56.00
(S2) Support 2: $55.40
(S3) Support 3: $53.60
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Hog & Corn Comments – 11/04/09 Feed grains fall and hogs are stable

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CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $3.88 1/4, High – $3.98 3/4, Low – $3.75 1/4, Close – $3.84 Down $.06
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideway/Lower

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Dec ‘09: Enthusiasm was once again on the prowl prior to the market open but follow through to the upside didn't last for very long as the market topped within the first five minutes of trade posting a high of $3.98 3/4.  As mentioned yesterday it is hard to get a good grasp on what the market is going to do because of the irrational (as it pertains to fundamentals, weather and some technicals) buying that has come into the market place via the funds.

Today the steam ran out of the locomotive early, not to say that it won't be back but for today it faltered.  We exited our long corn futures that we own against our long $3.70 puts at $3.90 1/2 and will look to buy the market at a lower level.  This could change tomorrow but for now we are on the sidelines until we see good reason to jump back in. 

If you have no coverage I would suggest you talk with your broker and buy some out of the money calls for catastrophic protection if this thing really gets moving.  If $4.13 1/2 is breached and we close above it for two consecutive days the markets next target is the summer high of $4.73 1/2.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-05-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.04
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.94
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.88 1/2
Today’s close: $3.84
(S1) Support 1: $3.78 1/2
(S2) Support 2: $3.72 3/4
(S3) Support 3: $3.57
_________________________________________________________________________

MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $306.50, High – $311.00, Low – $300.00, Close – $301.60 Down $4.80
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09 meal: Meal was weaker than the corn market today as it followed soybeans lower before corn broke as much as it did on the end of the day.  I said I was looking for the meal market to experience an early low but that wasn't the case as the low came near the end of the day.  We are still long our meal contracts around $297.00 and will continue with this position for now but will monitor it closely.

The meal market tested the old high of $311.40 and failed to close above it.  This type of behavior suggests that we should see a slight pullback in the market and then take another run at it.  I believe we will need the help of funds in order to do this but they didn't show up today like they have the past couple of days.  Again as mentioned before it is basically up to the funds if they want to keep this market at this level, if their appetite for meal has expired then I would look for the market to back off but they are ultimately in control right now.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-05-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $315.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $308.40
(R1) Resistance 1: $304.20
Today’s close: $301.60
(S1) Support 1: $297.40
(S2) Support 2: $293.20
(S3) Support 3: $282.20

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $57.70, High – $58.15, Low – $57.175, Close – $57.80 Up $.25
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

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Dec ‘09 hogs: The Dec '09 hogs looked tired again today as we had a $1.00 trade range which is relatively narrow for this market.  The cash prices at noon were much higher and actually came in near the same high levels this afternoon.  The market is once again giving signs of being top heavy at these levels but there really isn't much resistance between current levels and $59.225 so that remains an upside target.  We are starting to see the same type of action we had in the middle of October, it seemed like every day was a warning sign but the market didn't break. 

I am holding off on saying we are topping because of the way the market acted in October but the way we've traded the last two days is making me wonder.  The market has shrugged off the H1N1 in the hogs on an Indiana farm which is good; let's hope China and Russia see it the same way.  The U.S. Dollar Index broke hard today but is still above my line in the sand of 74.94, we are trading at 75.70 as I write this article.  

The intra-day charts are suggesting an early low for tomorrow and then it shows the market providing strength for the balance of the day.  This is quite possible as cash was up today and cutout was up slightly but not enough to keep pace with the big jump we had in cash.  We remain in our synthetic put positions for now so we have downside risk protected in the market and the upside opportunity is completely open.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-05-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $59.70
(R2) Resistance 2: $58.70
(R1) Resistance 1: $58.30
Today’s close: $57.80
(S1) Support 1: $57.325
(S2) Support 2: $56.75
(S3) Support 3: $55.80
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Hog & Corn Comments – 11/03/09 Feed markets are firm while hogs take a breath

NEW!!! – If you would like to receive delayed market quotes and/or weather forecast text messages at a time(s) during the day that you designate, please send an email to leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com to get setup.  There is no cost for this service.

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CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $3.80 1/4, High – $3.96 1/2, Low – $3.75 1/4, Close – $3.90 Up $.07 3/4
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideway/Lower

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Dec ‘09: Oh how things can change, yesterday's end of day rally was fueled by fund buying.  The problem with fund buying is there are no fundamental reasons for major buying other than the index funds need to move money into commodities for inflationary hedging purposes.  They are big enough so it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things if the market closes $.10 against them; they are here for the long-term.

The Dec '09 looks like it wants to challenge the $4.13 1/2 high we had a couple of Friday's ago.  The fundamentals aren't necessarily the driver in this market so it is hard to tell when the steam will run out of the locomotive that is the funds.  The technical picture looks good as of now and the market is rallying through a period where my cycle indicator says we should be moving lower.  Things indicators and fundamentals don't seem to work in justifying price when money is moving for reasons other than what the market is typically used to.

We still have our upside needs covered via a $3.70 synthetic call option and will remain in this position until the market states otherwise.  If you have no coverage I would suggest you talk with your broker and buy some out of the money calls for catastrophic protection if this thing really gets moving.  If $4.13 1/2 is breached and we close above it for two consecutive days the markets next target is the summer high of $4.73 1/2.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-04-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $4.08 1/2
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.99 1/4
Today’s close: $3.90
(S1) Support 1: $3.87 1/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.78
(S3) Support 3: $3.66
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MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $302.50, High – $312.50, Low – $300.10, Close – $306.40 Up $3.70
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

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Dec ‘09 meal: Meal has also been a benefactor of the influx of fund buying and popped this market higher as well.  We exited our long positions last week around $294.00 but we were stopped back into the market at $297.00 on Friday and continue to be long the market as we need price protection on meal if it moves higher.  If the Dec '09 meal contract is going to continue to move higher it will need to close above $311.40 for two consecutive days.

We made a new high above $311.40 today but failed to hold the higher prices as the market drifted into the close unlike yesterday when we rallied.  We will continue to hold our long meal positions because we need the coverage and things are moving based on outside forces instead of the directly related news as it pertains to the Ag sector.  Weather is still an issue for prices but we can make good harvest progress with a few days of dry weather.

The weather forecast brought some more small yet burdensome rains in for next week across the entire Corn Belt which again could keep producers out of the fields and away from the harvest finish line.  Intra-day charts suggest we see more follow through buying tomorrow but, in my opinion, it is up to the funds and what they decide to do our a much wetter forecast.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-04-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $326.60
(R2) Resistance 2: $318.70
(R1) Resistance 1: $312.60
Today’s close: $306.40
(S1) Support 1: $300.20
(S2) Support 2: $293.90
(S3) Support 3: $286.40

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HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $57.65, High – $58.275, Low – $57.15, Close – $57.55 Down $.175
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

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Dec ‘09 hogs: The hog industry was dealt another wild card yesterday afternoon when the USDA confirmed hogs in a commercial hog farm in Indiana tested positive for 2009 H1N1.  The news report states that the hogs have recovered as well as the producer.  You can read the article from Reuters here.  The market didn't seem to get too worked up about this news story as we were down early and found support that started the firm tone that held for most of the session. 

The market action today showed us a sign of balance which means the trade seems to be okay with where the price is as of today.  We took out yesterday's high but failed to find buy stops above the market, there were good sized sell orders entering the market around $58.30.  We entered back into some of our short futures positions against our long $52.00 call which gives us a synthetic put.  I am not trusting of the market with news coming out about H1N1 in a commercial herd and as I've mentioned before I'm sure there will be more surfacing as time passes. 

The fund buying that has been taking place makes it hard to manage risk in the market place because you need the downside of the market covered yet the index funds can push prices much higher and most hog operations need the higher prices if they can get them.  We entered back into our hedges because we need to make sure the downside of this market is covered and with the call options in place we have the upside open so there is no reason for us to risk this type of news pushing the market lower.  As mentioned before this news hasn't affected the market thus far but we will see how things go in the coming days.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-04-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $59.975
(R2) Resistance 2: $58.85
(R1) Resistance 1: $58.325
Today’s close: $57.55
(S1) Support 1: $57.20
(S2) Support 2: $56.60
(S3) Support 3: $55.475
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

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Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.