The Lean Hog Perspective
This lean hog and feed commentary contains thoughts from Jeremy Knutson, a commodity broker with Hurley & Associates.
Hog & Corn Comments 04/22/09 - Pork cutout can't catch a break lately.
Apr 22, 2009
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If you have questions, comments or suggestions, contact me at 1-877-212-2564 or email me at email@example.com. To read what I was thinking at the highs and lows of the market go to www.leanhog.net to view my archived posts.
CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.74 1/2, High - $3.78 1/4, Low - $3.70, Close - $3.73 1/2 Down $.00 1/2.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “As mentioned I am not bearish at these levels give the decline we've had. Today was actually a pretty quiet day as it relates to volume so I'm not buying into this rally attempt. As of right now I am keeping my options open to purchase corn at a lower level with a preference of $3.67 1/2 if I can. I will be looking for this number tomorrow as I think the market has potential get near it tomorrow.”
May ‘09 corn: $3.76 seems to be the golden number that May '09 corn can't seem to get through and close above. May is range bound between the 50% and 62% retracement level back to the early March '09 low. As I have said in some of my more recent posts I have a cycle low due near the 29th of April and I will hold a skeptical attitude toward corn until then and review then. I am still looking to buy corn at $3.67 1/2 if I can.
Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high tomorrow. As I said I will continue to try and buy May '09 corn around $3.67 1/2.
May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-23-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.83 1/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.78
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.76
Today's close: $3.73 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.72
(S2) Support 2: $3.70
(S3) Support 3: $3.68 1/2
MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $325.50, High - $329.80, Low - $324.30, Close - $329.80 Up $4.50
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: "I said it yesterday and I will say it again today; I am not willing to chase the meal market at these levels. I have confidence in saying this because I have call spreads in lace to allow me to be wrong directionally but still keep business under control. May '09 meal still needs to get back above $326.00 on a daily close before I think we can test our old high of $333.90 so that said, I will maintain my negative bias toward the meal market.”
May ‘09 meal: I am surprised May '09 meal did what it did today; we sold off as the day was progressing but it came back strong into the close. The overnight market set off an INTRA-DAY sell signal on the hourly chart (very short-term) at $328.20 with a protective buy stop at $330.50. The important number to keep in mind right now is $326.00 as the market settled above it today and if it does again tomorrow then I would say a test of the most recent high of $333.90 is likely.
Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high tonight/tomorrow.
May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-23-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $341.00
(R2) Resistance 2: $333.90
(R1) Resistance 1: $331.00
Today's close: $329.80
(S1) Support 1: $327.90
(S2) Support 2: $326.00
(S3) Support 3: $324.10
HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $72.75, High - $72.80, Low - $71.325, Close - $72.375 Down $.025
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Yesterday I said: “June really didn't do much today as we traded within yesterday's range and
failed to show anything of significance to change my mind on the market which is lower. I need to see the June '09 contract close above $72.75 for a couple days before I will say we could test $73.85 again. I am still of the opinion the market has more downside for the time being. "
June ‘09 hogs: I am still looking for that close below $72.175 which looks like it should come tomorrow and then I would be looking for a test of $70.525. My short-term target on June '09 hogs is $70.525 on gut feel but technically we need a couple of closes below $72.175. I still have my cycle indicator saying we should stay weak into May 4th so I will remain hedged for now with my upside open until $80.00 if we should get that high. Once we get closer to May 4th or reach some downside objectives ($69.525 in June '09) I may adjust my positions to become more of a bullish position meaning open the upside completely.
Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be lower tonight/tomorrow and experience an
early low and a late high and I'm staying hedged for now. If we close below $72.175 tomorrow and Thursday then I am looking for a test of $70.52.
June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-23-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $73.95
(R2) Resistance 2: $73.20
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.90
Today's close: $72.375
(S1) Support 1: $71.95
(S2) Support 2: $71.35
(S3) Support 3: $70.525
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