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December 2012 Archive for Grain Hedge

RSS By: Brock Schimbeno, AgWeb.com

Grain Hedge is a self-directed discount brokerage that saves farmers money when trading in the futures and options market. For $7 commissions per side producers can execute their marketing strategy with authority, any time the markets trade.

Export Sales Do Little To Support Grains

Dec 31, 2012

Grains are selling lower into the New Year, with corn down 3 1/2 cents, soybeans off 15 1/2, and Chicago wheat down 9. Soybean export sales of 140,000 MT  were reported to unknown destinations this morning, but this news gave little to support a market that remains focused on macro concerns. Negotiations continue in Washington as law makers struggle to find a compromise as we reach the edge of the "fiscal cliff". Expect more can kicking by politicians in the coming days, but the grains will have to start turning attention back to the fundamentals as we approach the January 11th USDA WASDE and Crop Production report.

Export inspections were released this morning, and once again corn missed the mark as soybeans met trade expectations. Right now are models indicate that export sales of corn are 50 million bushels behind the pace needed to meet USDA expectations while soybeans are roughly 180 million bushels ahead of pace. With this in mind, we expect the USDA to revise their export sales projections for soybeans higher and corn lower in the January WASDE report. Below are the trade expectations and reported figures from this morning's export inspections report.

Export Inspections 12/31/12 (Million Bushels)
  Expectations Reported
Corn 11-13 7.91
Soybeans 35-38 35.54
Wheat 12-15 7.76

 

The market will close at 2PM Central Time today and resume trading at 9:30 AM central time on Wednesday. Everyone have a great New Years and we will see you back here on Wednesday!

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

 

Wheat Export Sales / Fiscal Cliff Both Grain Market Movers

Dec 28, 2012

We had a lot of fundamental news to talk about today, with both the EIA ethanol and export sales report being released today. Wheat export sales crushed market expectations giving wheat a break from recent selling pressure. Ethanol production moved up by 12,000 BPD for the week, but our models are still projecting 100 million bushels less corn going to ethanol than what the USDA is currently projecting. On today's show Brock and Logan discuss these issues and the looming fiscal cliff.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Macro Markets Pressure Grains, When Do We Get Back To Fundamentals?

Dec 27, 2012

Grains traded lower across the board today as macro forces continued to weigh on the grain market. Brock and Logan discuss today's action, and speculate on when the grain market's attention will be back on the fundamentals.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Sell into the Close on Light Volume

Dec 26, 2012

Grains traded lower across the board today, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all losing 10 cents or more. More technical damage was done to the corn market, while continued precipitation in South America pressured the US bean market. Export Inspections met market expectations, but how does today's inspections compare to the pace needed to meet USDA expectations? Kevin and Logan discuss all of the day's events on today's GrainTV.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Positive End to the Week, But Will the Rally Continue Next Week?

Dec 21, 2012

Logan and Brock discuss the day's action in the grain market with corn and soybeans having a positive end of the week. Cattle on Feed was released after the close and weekly basis trends are discussed. Tune into for full analysis of today's action.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Export Sales, Cancellations Drive Grains Lower

Dec 20, 2012

Cody and Brock discuss the day's action in the grain market with corn and soybeans falling again. Exports for corn disappoint, soybeans met expectations, and wheat was at the high end of expectations. China canceled another 540,000 MT of soybeans. Technical and fund selling accelerated the downturn. Tune into for full analysis of today's action.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Morning Grain Call

Dec 20, 2012

Click Play to Hear the Morning Grain Call

Cody and Brock discuss the early action in the grain markets.  At the time of this writing we have MAR corn down 15 1/4, JAN soybeans down 23 1/2, and MAR CHI wheat down 19 1/2 cents.  USDA announced that China cancelled another 540,000 MT which accelerated the selling.  Some key technical levels are also discussed.

Ethanol, Informa Numbers Push Grains Lower

Dec 19, 2012

Cody and Brock discuss the day's action in the grain market with corn and soybeans falling again. Ethanol production and stocks sparked a mid-session sell off today. Informa's 2013 planted acreage estimates furthered the selling pressure. The technical landscapes are looking shaky at this juncture. Export sale figures will be released on Thursday morning. Tune into for full analysis of today's action.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Soybeans Lead Lower, Will Fundamentals Support?

Dec 18, 2012

Cody and Logan discuss the day's action in the grain market, with soybeans falling over 30 cents. There were net cancellations of 310,000 MT today, but that is a small percentage in relation to the amount of sales made this year in beans. The pace of sales and soy crush margin continues to provide fundamental support for the oilseed complex. Tomorrow EIA ethanol numbers are released. Tune into for full analysis of today's action.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Corn/Wheat Move Lower -- Beans Barely Hold On To Positive Territory

Dec 17, 2012

Brock and Logan discuss the day's action in the grain market, with corn ending the day down 6 1/4, soybeans up 1/2 cent, and wheat off 5 1/4. Soybeans climbed above $15 per bushel during the night session before being pressured lowered by South American precip and export inspections which came in below trade expectations. With this said, we feel this bean market has some legs into the New Year looking at the full demand picture.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Close Week Positively But Will the Rally Continue?

Dec 14, 2012

Cody and Logan discuss today's trade action as the markets closed for the weekend. The grains, in general, finished the week on a high note with corn, soybeans and wheat ending trade on positive ground today. NOPA crush numbers were released and were supportive of the soybean complex. Demand for corn and wheat continue to be a concern. Is there firmness in the cash market? These topics and more are discussed in today's GrainTV.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Export Sales Strong for Soybeans; Next Up, NOPA Crush Numbers

Dec 13, 2012

Cody and Logan discuss today's trade action coming on the heels of the USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report. Wheat met expectations, corn hit the high end of expectations, and soybeans far exceeded expectations once again. Some key technical levels held today for corn, soybeans and wheat. Tomorrow, NOPA releases there November crush estimates. These topics and more are discussed in today's GrainTV.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Mixed Trade Day After Strong Export Sales Reported

Dec 13, 2012

PRESS THE PLAY BUTTON TO HEAR THE CLOSING GRAIN CALL

This morning's Export Sales Report showed that demand for US soybeans remains exceptionally strong, with 1.319 million metric tons of soybean reported sold last week. This again exceeded trade expectations of sales coming in between 600k-850k metric tons. China accounted for just over 1 million of the total sales from this week reports. Soybeans traded 19 cents higher at one point following the report before finding technical resistance from the 50 day moving average sitting at 1490. Soybeans drifted lower toward the close, ending the day up just 3 1/2 cents on the January contract.

Corn and wheat followed soybeans higher after the report was released, with both corn and wheat coming in at the high end of trade expectations. Like soybeans, corn and wheat were unable to hold positive terriorty into the close, with corn closing down 4 3/4 and wheat off 3 3/4 on the March contracts. Outside markets pressured grains at at mid-day, with Standard and Poors cutting their outlook for the UK to negative. This move is the first step toward a credit rating downgrade we have seen hit many countries in the Euro Zone.

For soybeans expect 1490 to continue providing technical resistance to the top side, and fundamentally tomorrow's NOPA crush numbers will be watched closely by the soy complex. Technically this corn chart is going to take on a bearish outlook if we have a strong close below 720 on the March contract. (pictured below)

Yellow line showing 720 price level on March '13 corn futures.

720 march corn

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR FULL RISK DISCLOSURE AT WWW.GRAINHEDGE.COM.

Follow-through Selling for Corn and Wheat; What Technical Levels Should Be Watched?

Dec 12, 2012

Brock and Logan discuss today's trade action coming on the heels of Tuesday's USDA WASDE Report. Wheat continued to sell off, dragging corn along, as ending stocks were raised 50 million bushels yesterday. For wheat, oversold territory has been hit on the daily chart and we are approaching support from the 200-day moving averge. Also sitting right below the market is the psychological support level of $8. As for corn, ethanol production disappointed this week leading the market to test the $7.20 support area. These topics and more are discussed in today's GrainTV.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Bearish Report for Wheat, How Low Can the Market Fall?

Dec 11, 2012

Cody and Logan discuss today's trade action coming on the heels of Tuesday's USDA WASDE Report. Wheat had the biggest surprise of the day with ending stocks being raised 50 million bushels. All of the increase was due to a decrease in exports of the same amount. No revisions were made to corn supply and demand, but soybean crushings saw a 10 million bushel increase. Wheat was really the leader to the downside in today's trade, so how low can we trade? Tune in to find out.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

USDA Report First Take

Dec 11, 2012

PRESS THE PLAY BUTTON TO HEAR THE MORNING GRAIN CALL

USDA Ending Stocks:

  • Corn unchanged at 647 million bushels
  • Soybeans down 10 million bushels to 130 million bushels
  • Wheat up 50 million bushels to 754 million bushels

 

This morning corn and soybeans are trading on either side of unchanged after the USDA WASDE report gave little new fundamentals to traders. Wheat is down 16 cents at the moment after US ending stocks were raised 50 million bushels as a result of a 50 million bushel revision lower to export sales. Notable for the wheat market was a .95 million metric ton revision higher to Russian ending stocks.

The USDA left the corn balance sheet unchanged, keeping all production and demand figures from the November report. This only raises for bar for the demand scenario moving forward, with the USDA leaving exports and ethanol crush unchanged in the face of weak export sales and historically low ethanol crush margins. We will be keeping a close eye on the weekly Export Sales Report and EIA Energy Stocks report for direction on this corn market.

Soybean ending stocks were revised 10 million bushels lower, meeting trade expectations. The USDA left export sales unchanged which came as a surprise to many after the furious pace of US export sales to date. Pushing ending stocks lower was crush projections which were raised 10 million bushels. South American soybean production estimates were left unchanged for both Argentina and Brazil in this morning's report.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

USDA Report Expectations - 12/10

Dec 10, 2012

Cody and Brock discuss today's trade action coming into Tuesday's USDA WASDE Report and what the market is expecting out of that report. Corn has been drifting lower but has the market fully accounted for the weak pace of export sales?

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Drift Lower into Tomorrow's USDA Report

Dec 10, 2012

TM

The grains are lower across the board this morning, with corn down 6 3/4, soybeans down 11 1/4, and Chicago wheat off 12 cents. South Korea excluded the US from a corn tender this weekend, indicating that US prices still need to move lower to remain competitive on the export front. Right now ethanol crush margins are sitting about $1.00 per bushels, well below the $2.30 we saw them last year at this time. On average, the trade is expecting a 16 million bushel increase to corn ending stocks, but we are not going to be surprised if the USDA releases a bearish surprise tomorrow for the corn market. Considering the pace of export sales and ethanol production we are looking for a 50 million bushel addition to corn ending stocks in tomorrow's report. Technically, 720 is going to be a important area of support for the March corn contract, but technicals will certainly be trumped by any fundamental surprises out of tomorrow's numbers.

March '13 Corn Chart -- Support at 720

marchchart

Soybeans look to be a different story, with trade estimates looking for a 10 million bushel reduction to soybean ending stocks. Exceptionally strong US export sales have us well ahead of pace to meet the USDA projections. In their November report the USDA projected 1.345 billion bushels of soybeans exported during the current marketing year, and we have already booked 78% of this total. If you want live quotes for tomorrow's report at your home or office take a no-obligation demo of Grain Hedge's trading platform today!

grain hedge topper

 

What Do Analysts Expect Out of Tuesday's Report?

Dec 07, 2012

On today's show we break down analysts' expectations for next Tuesday's USDA/WASDE reports. Domestic ending stocks are discussed as is South American production. What demand figures are we looking to see revised? Tune in for a breakdown of these topics and more.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

China is Buying Soybeans, Is the Rest of the World Too?

Dec 06, 2012

Export sales of soybeans led to another rally for the oilseed. Corn exports were terrible and wheat got a boost from a sale to Japan. We know China is buying soybeans this year, but is the rest of the world buying too? Tune in for a breakdown of these topics and more.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

China's Economy Strengthens, Ethanol Production Increased...Will this Allow the Rally to Continue?

Dec 05, 2012

Ethanol production was up 32,000 BPD to 835,000. Going along with the increase in production was a large uptick in ethanol stocks, which increased about 5.5% from last week. Chinese economic conditions improved driving global equity markets higher. These factors and more drove the grains in today's trade. Tune in for a breakdown of these topics and more.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

What Will Be the Catalyst to Drive Grains?

Dec 04, 2012

What will be the catalyst to drive the grain markets in upcoming sessions. Will ethanol numbers? What about export busines? USDA/WASDE report next week? Tune in for these topics and more.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Egypt Buys Wheat, China Looking for Soybeans

Dec 03, 2012

Wheat export sales to Egypt and rumors of China shopping for soybeans drove the markets early on. Export inspections missed expectations for corn and soybeans leading to a slightly lower trade mid-session. Want find out how to protect yourself heading into the new year? Tune in for these topics and more.

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

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