JAN Soybeans Test $14 as Fundamentals and Technicals Turn South
Nov 12, 2012
Grains are trading lower across the board this morning with January soybeans leading things to the downside. Right now we have JAN beans down 36, DEC corn down 5, and DEC Chicago Wheat down 9. Outside markets are quiet this morning, with the Dollar Index, gold, and crude oil all trading relatively unchanged. The grain market has turned back to fundamentals, and this week should provide good conditions for Southern Brazil and Northern Argentina to make progress on getting their corn and soy crops planted. In Friday’s WASDE report the USDA left production estimates out of both countries unchanged for corn and soybeans, giving the bulls little incentive to buy on questions about production as we are still very early in their growing season. South American production is expected to help replenish short global grain stocks, so production will be watched very closely.
With it being Veterans Day we will get the export inspections report tomorrow, which will be looked at closely after the USDA raised soybean and lowered wheat export expectations in Friday's WASDE report.
Technically we have the 50 day moving average crossing the 100 day moving average on the front month of corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat in the coming days. Technical traders are going to look at this as a very strong sign that we are now in a bearish market move for the grains, but from a fundamental standpoint you can’t ignore the very tight corn and soybean stocks right now. Look for strong technical support at $14 / bu. On the January soybean contract from highs printed in August of 2011 and April/May of 2012.
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