Grain TV by Grain Hedge
Grain TV is a daily recap after the market close, providing opinions on fundamental analysis of market direction, influences and expectations. This daily program is produced by Grain Hedge, a discount brokerage firm that provides farmers and elevators with agricultural intelligence including live market quotes, cash bid data, the Grain Hedge Optimizer™ and mobile trading platforms, all for $7 commission per side. Grain Hedge provides tools to allow farmers the ability to trade when the markets move without having to wait for a broker and the information to execute a marketing strategy with confidence.
Turnaround Tuesday Fails to Support Grains
Nov 13, 2012
Grains are sliding lower after a tough Monday that saw corn trade down 20 cents, and soybeans down 43 cents. At the moment we have corn down 2, soybeans up 3 1/4, and wheat trading 11 cents lower. At 10 AM Central Time the USDA will release the weekly export inspections report. Market Expectations are as follows:
Corn: 13.0-17.0 million bushels
Soybeans: 53.0-59.0 million bushels
Wheat: 12.0-14.0 million bushels
Last Friday's November WASDE report showed the USDA raising their projection for soybean exports by 80 million bushels for the current marketing year. It will be important to see confirmation of these expectations in the weekly export inspection and export sales report moving forward. Corn was left unchanged, and projected wheat exports were lowered by 50 million bushels in Friday's Report.
27 period RSI in "Oversold Territory"
Technically we saw the January soybean contract reach oversold territory according to the RSI indicator. The picture below was taken from Firetip, and you can see with yesterday's action the 27 period RSI reached 26, with any point below 30 being considered "oversold". This was the first time we have seen the RSI below 30 since October 2011. Not surprisingly we are seeing a snap back in today's trade, and it might not be a bad idea to look at picking up puts for downside protection on any rally. In yesterday's trade we saw a $14.00 January soybean put trade up from 18 to around 34 cents, highlighting the importance of buying puts on rallies rather than on down days in the market.
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