Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for March 29, 2017.
Grain markets are steady to higher on bargain hunting. The outside markets are mostly green as the US Dollar and crude oil are higher.
Thanks to the great crowd who listened to the Allendale Monthly Webinar last night. If you were unable to attend last night, you missed some great perspective on Friday's USDA reports, but you are welcome to get the recorded version FREE by clicking Here.
USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports will be released on Friday at 11:00 am. Historically this report will cause price volatility.
Planted acreage poll by Reuters: Corn 90.969 million acres, Soybeans 88.214 million acres, and wheat 46.139 million acres. USDA 2017 Outlook Forum estimated 90 corn, 88 soybeans and 46 million acres of wheat.
Quarterly stocks analyst poll by Reuters: Wheat 1.627 billion bushel (Last Year 1.372), corn 8.534 (LY 8.205) and soybeans 1.684 (LY 1.627).
Price reaction study done by Allendale’s very wwn, Rich Nelson shows over the past 15 years July corn has closed higher 9 times after the report. The average of the higher priced years was 15 cents.
Funds were net sellers of 9,000 corn contracts on Tuesday, 4,000 soybeans and 2,500 wheat during the session of relatively light overall volume.
U.S. soybean export program is going to be challenged from here on out with Brazilian premiums running at a $10 discount to Gulf offers out through July. Argentina owns the meal bargain with a $10 to $14 discount.
Senate Ag Committee says it will vote today on whether to favorably report Sonny Perdue's nomination to be USDA Secretary to the full Senate.
Market consensus for today's EIA report is for a 1.4 million billion barrel rise in U.S. crude oil inventories, a -2.0 million billion barrel decline in gasoline inventories, a -1.1 million barrel decline in distillate inventories.
Fed Cattle Exchange has 3,963 head of cattle offered at today's auction.
Feedlot managers are suggesting there are a lot of cattle contracted for April. This could give the packers the upper hand for a few weeks.
June live cattle futures have a gap on the charts at 111.20 to 111.25. Futures traders will be watching the electronic auction today for further direction.
USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Thursday. Trade average estimates are All Hogs March 1, 103.9%, Kept for Breeding 101.8% and Kept for Market 104.0% of a year ago.
Pre report adjusting combined with the bird flu worries increasing competition from poultry has traders establishing short positions.
Technical support crosses at 72.00 in June lean hogs. Technical indicators are signaling an oversold condition going into the H&P report. Look for choppy trade before report.
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down .34 and select down .60. The CME Feeder Index is 133.26. Pork cutout value is down 1.51.
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