Jul 10, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions| Sign UpLogin


August 2012 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Traders Prepare For Long Weekend

Aug 31, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 31, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are lower across the board. Russian Ag Minister says there will be no ban on exports as long as he is in charge. Even with a large reduction in Russian wheat production, domestic supplies will be adequate this year. Bernanke speaks at 9:00 AM central time with many hoping to hear an announcement of QE3. There may be some disappointment adjusting ahead of the long weekend. Corn and soybean basis on the interior was down another 5 cents on Thursday. Harvest is in full swing in many areas. Path of Isaac is still projected to move through the Midwest this weekend. The US and Euro models are projecting rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches through most of Midwest. Traders are concerned about the potential damage to the soybean crop due to heavy rains. By Tuesday morning we should have a better assessment of any damage. On August 29th, last year, a top was put in on soybeans. We made a contract high yesterday in the November soybean contract. Traders will likely even up some positions going into a long weekend. Grain futures will begin trading at 7:00 PM Monday evening. By Monday we will have many of these questions answered. The macro influence will be watched closely while waiting for headlines out of Europe. Draghi is expected to announce some kind of stimulus package for the EU next week. A few cattle traded at 188 in the north which was steady strong compared to last week. Bids and offers in the south are 4 to 6 dollars apart. We expect one side or the other to bend a little today. August Live Cattle stop trading today at noon. Boxed beef was lower on Thursday with choice was down .09 and select was down .92. Pork cutout values continue the price slide going into the Labor Day holiday with Thursday value down .99. Today is the last day to participate in the Allendale Yield Survey. We will be releasing the results of the survey on Tuesday Sept 4th.
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    -3 3/4
Nov Beans   -8 3/4
Sep Wheat   -6 3/4
Oct Cattle +.60
Oct Hogs    +.10
Sep S&P     +5.50
Sep Dlr     -.31
Oct Crude   +.42
Dec Gold    +3.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s trade in Dec Wheat has opened up the market to more questions than answers. Was Wednesday’s strong price action the start of a recovery attempt to new highs? Or was it one day of short covering and yesterday’s high is the new pivot high that we must respect as we start a leg lower? Due to the amount of questions in Dec Wheat and the sideways nature of the chart we feel that a neutral stance would be the best approach…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Hurricane Isaac is making its slow path Northward through Louisiana. The Northern half of the state will see rains between 3 and 5 inches. That will subside it is moves into the Midwest.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Friday An Important Day For Market Confidence

Aug 30, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 30, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn again following wheat’s strength. Remnants of Isaac are headed toward the Midwest, the exact path is still to be determined but the moisture will be much appreciated. Ethanol production number yesterday was below last week and below the amount needed to hit USDA target. Geoff Cooper from RFA mentioned on the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar on Tuesday night that ethanol production facilities have become more efficient and the USDA could find excess corn in that category on the balance sheet. Friday is becoming a very important day for market news this week. Russia will be holding a news conference, Chairman Bernanke will be speaking in Jackson Hole, WY at 9:00 CDT and it is first notice day for September contracts at the CBOT. All this news will be followed by a long weekend where trading will not begin until 7:00 PM on Monday evening. Weekly export sales will be announced this morning at 7:30. Trade estimates are: corn 250,000 to 450,000 tonnes, soybeans 600,000 to 800,000 tonnes, soymeal 150,000 to 250,000 tonnes, soyoil 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes and wheat 450,000 to 600,000 tonnes. Money flow was a driver to price yesterday as funds bought 12,000 corn, 8000 beans and 5,000 wheat contracts. Will they be back buying today as we end the month? Basis for beans in the interior was weaker by as much as a dime at most processors. August live cattle futures last trading day is Friday at noon. The strength in futures is providing confidence for feedlots holding out for stronger prices this week. A few cash cattle trade in the north at steady money. Cash bids in the south are 117 to 118 while offers are 122 to 123. Cattle feeding losses are still running about $150 per head. Product values are lower, choice down .99 and select down .99. Pork cutout values were down .67. Livestock futures have been supported by fund buying. Only a few days left to participate in the Allendale Yield Survey, we will stop collecting data at 2:00 pm Friday,
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +3 1/4
Nov Beans   -3 1/4
Sep Wheat   +2 1/2
Oct Cattle +17.5
Oct Hogs    -.02
Sep S&P     -4.00
Sep Dlr     -.06
Oct Crude   -.20
Dec Gold    -3.60
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Oct Lean Hogs put in an outside range day up. This implies a loss of negative momentum. Going forward, in order to negate the down trend and enter into a base and reversal phase, we need to see a close above the 8/14 $77.77 1/2 pivot high.  However, if the contract low of $72.07 ½ does not hold we should not be surprised by the continuation of the down trend…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Hurricane Isaac, at 200 miles wide, is 40 miles Southeast of New Orleans. Storm surge of 6 to 12 feet are expected off the coast of Louisiana. Winds could reach 100 miles per hour. The grain industry will watch for any damage to export locations.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Traders Now Look To Fed Chairman Speech

Aug 29, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 29, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are higher on short covering from an oversold market. Tuesday’s December corn close was the second close below the 30 day moving average and the fifth consecutive day of a lower settlement price. Thanks to all that attended the Allendale August Ag Leaders Webinar last evening. The storms in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Pacific have turned out to be less threat than earlier forecast. Hurricane Isaac is headed for land and the ruminants are on the way toward the Midwest with heaviest rains projected for the southern IL, IN, and OH. These rains would come at a perfect time for winter wheat seeding. Some late soybeans would benefit from late season rains. Typhoon Bolaven has been downgraded to a tropical storm and did most of its damage across Korea. The market is running out of new supply news making it difficult to push through old highs. Traders are now focusing on the Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech scheduled for Friday at 9:00 AM central time. Many are expecting rhetoric that will show their hand for another round of quantitative easing. It is starting to concern us that if the trade doesn’t get an announcement of QE3 very soon they may give up on the long side of commodities. The Allendale yield survey is going on this week and we appreciate all the participation. As Frank La Placa mentioned last evening in the webinar, the technical picture is starting to look like a near-term top. In recent weeks we have talked about the revenue that producers have at risk with crop insurance. The fall price option is based on the average of December futures during the month of October. Will that average price be higher or lower than today’s December futures price? We will be happy to discuss some strategies to protect your potential revenue.  Cash cattle are inactive with very little demand. Boxed beef was lower on Tuesday. Choice beef was down .07 and select was down .23. Retailers seem to have their needs for the Labor Day Holiday. Pork cutout values drop another 1.46 yesterday. Futures markets will be closed Monday with grains opening at 7:00 PM Monday evening. Only a few days left to participate in the Allendale Yield Survey.
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    +9
Nov Beans   +11 1/4
Sep Wheat   +13 3/4
Oct Cattle -.02
Oct Hogs    -.17
Sep S&P     -.50
Sep Dlr     +.04
Oct Crude   -.70
Dec Gold    -2.20
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s inside range day does imply that we are losing momentum to the downside. We have seen a break in short term momentum with the violation of 8/02 $123.55 low. Yesterday’s price action implies that we may be going into an sideways market here for the time being.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
US: The Monday Crop Progress report showed corn good to excellent ratings falling 1% to now 22%. Poor to very poor ratings gained 1% to now 52%. As a whole, the nation’s corn crop is 26% mature while 6% has been harvested.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

3 Reasons to Be Concerned About a Top in Corn

Aug 28, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 28, 2012 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are lower this morning. USDA lowered crop conditions for corn and soybeans by 1% in the good to excellent category. Corn harvest is progressing as the national average is now 6%. The rains that moved through the Midwest yesterday and over the weekend have improved attitude of producers as much as it benefited the soybeans and any corn that is still green. It now appears some moisture from Hurricane Isaac could reach the Midwest by the weekend. Bernanke will be giving a speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. Traders are expecting an announcement on QE3. This is where in 2010 the second quantitative easing was announced. It is likely the Fed will wait for the employment data in September to be released. Processors are saying they have enough beans until harvest gets into full swing. Yesterday afternoon Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist shared three facts that are important for everyone to know. There were seven years where it was extremely hot during pollination and a dry growing season which are being compared to this year. One: The Right Timing in hot years: during those years, 5 topped with an average date of August 12. Current high for Dec corn was made on August 10. When using all 7 years the average high date would be Sept 15. The average sell-off was 22% for the 5 normal years and 18% for all 7 years. Two: The Right Price Rally: when looking at price and yield comparisons, a 25% drop in yield equates to a 59% rally. Currently we have had a 60% rally in price. Three: The Right Timing per last year: in 2011, we topped the corn market on August 28th which thereafter ensued a 28% decline. Using this year’s high of 8.49, it would suggest a possible decline as much as 2.37 or to 6.12 in December futures. These observations have nothing to do with supply and demand but more to do with psychology. Call your Allendale representative today and get all the details. Hog slaughter is very heavy compared to a year ago which is causing pork supplies to be large. The bright spot is hogs have improved performance the last few weeks with cooler temps. This should create smaller numbers for October. Beef producers are selling breeding herds as pasture conditions are poor and feed supplies tight. Boxed beef was lower today as buyers have filled their needs for Labor Day. Choice was down.16 and select was down 1.36. Pork cutout values were down 1.60. The Ag Leaders Webinar is this evening at 8:00 pm sign up today.
 
 
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Dec Corn    -1
Nov Beans   -1
Sep Wheat   +1 3/4
Oct Cattle -.07
Oct Hogs    -.07
Sep S&P     +1.75
Sep Dlr     -.23
Oct Crude   +.64
Dec Gold    -10.10
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s wild trade in Nov Soybeans put in a new all-time high of $17.60 ½. This new high does continue to validate the strength in the Nov Soybeans. However the fact that we closed 40 cents off the highs does indicate weakness in a market that made new highs on selling. If we do see a close below the 8/23 pivot low of $17.04 ¼ we could see the start of a peak and reversal process that could leave yesterday’s high in its wake as we begin the process of correcting from these levels. 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Allendale’s 23rd annual Farmer Yield Survey is rolling ahead with full steam. We are now entering the halfway point in this year’s two week long survey which runs between August 20 and 31. We urge all producers to make your voice heard by submitting your numbers either online at www.allendale-inc.com or by phone 800-262-7538!
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Weather will be focus again this week

Aug 27, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 27, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher this morning as traders adjust positions after option expiration. Now that the ProFarmer tour is over, the focus turns to the Allendale Annual Yield Survey. You can participate in this survey by going to www.Allendale-inc.com and sharing with us your farm’s production. This survey has been extremely accurate in years past. This week has several issues to deal with. Hurricane Isaac will be moving on shore in the gulf and now is likely to bring moisture by next weekend into the drought stricken Midwest. This will be beneficial to late soybeans and winter wheat plantings. Typhoon Bolaven will hit China midweek and damage to crops should be limited with the rain providing greater benefit to dry areas. The Fed will be meeting in Jackson Hole, WY and we have to expect more talk of QE3. Crop conditions and harvest progress will be out this afternoon at 3:00 PM. CFTC showed funds were big buyers in corn and soy products last week. Traders will be remembering the corn and soybeans topped this week last year. First notice day is Friday for September CBOT grain contracts. Boxed beef prices closed lower on Friday. Choice was down 1.69 and select was down 1.40. Pork cutout values continued the slide on Friday with prices down .73. With grain price higher we would expect continued pressure on nearby livestock prices. Sign up today for the August 28th Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar .
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    +2 3/4
Nov Beans   +19 1/4
Sep Wheat   -1
Oct Cattle Stdy-Lwr
Oct Hogs    Stdy-Lwr
Sep S&P     +1.75
Sep Dlr     -.01
Oct Crude   +.96
Dec Gold    +.02
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Friday’s trade in the Dec corn did find follow through selling. While we have not seen a breakdown on the chart, we have seen a slowdown in upside momentum. The 8/10 pivot high of $8.49 is the major level of resistance that this market must overcome in order to resume the bull market. Going forward, we feel that continued sideways trade should be expected…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Generally dry conditions for next week, and the government’s current warm forecast for September, should insure spring wheat harvest gets wrapped up without a hitch…Rich Nelson

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Hurricane Isaac May Provide Rain to Lower Midwest

Aug 24, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 24, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are higher as traders adjust positions ahead of the tour data release. Headlines and option expiration should be the driving force for grain markets as we close out the week. Technical chart points will be watched going into the close today. The results of the ProFarmer’s crop tour will be released at 2:00 pm CDT. Option expiration today and Sept stops trading at the close, traders will have to decide if they want to exercise out of money strikes. We expect traders will also be focusing on the weather systems in the Atlantic and typhoon off of the coast of China as we close out the week. Forecasters are moving landfall of Hurricane Isaac further west; latest models are placing it to come on shore in southeastern Mississippi. With current projections to bring well need rain to the delta and Ohio River basin by mid to late next week. It should not be a factor for the Republican Convention in Tampa; FL starting Monday. Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc., believes Typhoon Bolaven which is expected to hit China next week will likely provide more benefit than harm. Weekly export data was neutral compared to trade expectation on Thursday. Details of the EU leader’s shuttle diplomacy meetings should provide some headlines as we go into the weekend. Livestock producers struggle with poor margins and difficulty finding feed supplies. Cash cattle traded steady to 1.00 higher than last week at 121. Dressed trade in NE was reported at 2.00 to 3.00 lower at 187 to 189. Boxed beef was slightly higher with choice up .10 and select up .07. Cash hogs remain weak while cutout values were .47 higher on Thursday. Your help would be appreciated by filling out the Allendale Yield Survey. No one knows your field’s production like you do. Sign up today for the August 28th Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar .
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    +4 1/2
Nov Beans   +14 1/4
Sep Wheat   +7
Oct Cattle -.02
Oct Hogs    -.40
Sep S&P     -.25
Sep Dlr     -.11
Oct Crude   -.29
Dec Gold    -2.20
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday in the Oct Crude Oil we put in a new high and closed lower creating an outside day down on the chart. In the short, term, this is a negative pattern that does imply a loss of momentum at higher prices. While we have not seen major support violated we must be cautious at these levels.  A close below the 8/10 $91.97 pivot low would indicate that the major uptrend has been violated…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The crop tour estimated Illinois corn yield at 121.6 bushels per acre. This puts them actually above USDA’s 116 yield posted on the August supply/demand report. This would also suggest Illinois will not be as worse as 1988. A similar nationwide yield as in 1988, -28% from trend for the nation, would put nationwide yields at 116 from USDA’s current 123.4.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Major Tropical Storms Headed for U.S. and China

Aug 23, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 23, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are lower on profit taking. Fund buying has been a major factor this week. Open interest in corn, beans and wheat has jumped which suggests new money with no-fear type buying is stepping into the market. Will they be there to buy as we close out the week? The crop tour will end today and a final tally will be released tomorrow. Today the tour should be getting into some much better corn in southern Minnesota. Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc. has Typhoon Bolaven moving into China’s Dalian port sometime next Thursday. The current path projection has this storm missing all land before getting to China. This is likely to cause the system to carry full force when hitting China’s major ports and corn growing area. In the Atlantic, Hurricane Issac’s path now is projected to bring moisture to the southeastern US and keep the Midwest dry. The Fed minutes from yesterday put some language that opens the door for QE3 talk again. EU leaders are beginning their shuttle diplomacy meetings today. Spain’s bonds rates are continuing to stay under the 7% mark as the ECB buys bonds. Weekly export sales estimates for the 7:30 USDA report are: corn 200 to 350 tmt, soybeans 500 to 650 tmt, meal 125 to 250 tmt, bean oil 10 to 35 tmt and wheat 400 to 550 tmt. September option expiration is Friday. High feed costs are getting credit for the oversupply of pork. The losses pork producers are incurring is causing liquidation at a time where meat demand slows after the Labor Day holiday. Boxed beef was down slightly on Wednesday. Choice was -.09 and select was -.44. Cold storage report numbers released yesterday afternoon were in line with estimates for pork. However the sharp rise in feed cost is leading to liquidation causing pressure on pork prices. Cutout values were down another 2.98 on Wednesday. Go to Allendale Survey and answer the few questions. No one knows your field’s production like you do. You can sign up for the August 28th Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar today.
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    -2 1/4
Nov Beans   -1 1/4
Sep Wheat   +2
Oct Cattle -.20
Oct Hogs    +.27
Sep S&P     +4.00
Sep Dlr     -.11
Oct Crude   +.75
Dec Gold    +24.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
The down trend is still very healthy in Oct Lean Hogs as we made new contract lows yesterday of $73.15.With zero levels of technical support, the weakness in Oct Hogs should not surprise us by its strength going forward. In order to negate the bearish momentum, we must see a close above the 8/14 $77.77 ½ pivot high…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Tuesday night ProFarmer suggested its crop tour results for Indiana at 113.3 bpa. That would be over USDA’s latest 100 bpa estimate.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Markets Lower Overnight

Aug 22, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 22, 2012 at 5:05 am. Grain futures have backed off a little bit this morning after two days of sharply higher markets. Today we will be getting the third day of tweets from the crop tour. Can the bullish news continue to drive futures to new all-time highs? It seems that the tour should be getting into an area today where yields are a little better. The world corn supply is being threatened by a typhoon off the coast of China. It is projected to hit land in the Dalian port area and could affect 20% of China’s corn producing area. This will be watched closely early next week. Stats-Canada will be releasing their production estimates later this morning. September option expiration will occur on Friday. Macro markets provided support to commodities yesterday with the collapse of the dollar. The Euro has found confidence again as the ECB is providing liquidity to keep the Spanish bond rate below 7%. The EU leaders are planning a week of shuttle diplomacy starting tomorrow. The hope is they will figure out some answers for the building debt crisis of the region. Livestock are being negatively impacted by high feed cost. Boxed beef was lower on Monday with choice down .03 and select was up .05. Pork cutout was down 2.09 yesterday. Allendale is continuing to gather data for the Allendale 23rd Annual Yield Survey. Your help is very important to making it a success. Please go to www.allendale-inc.com and fill out the online survey. Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar is scheduled for August 28 at 8:00 PM Central time.
 
 
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Dec Corn    -2 3/4
Nov Beans   -8 1/2
Sep Wheat   -7
Oct Cattle -.05
Oct Hogs    -.42
Sep S&P     -3.00
Sep Dlr     +.04
Sep Crude   +.71
Dec Gold    +.80
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s short term momentum failure in Oct. Live Cattle has set the market up for a challenge of the 8/02 $123.55 pivot low. If we do see a close below this level, we would have to assume that the rally attempt has failed and we will see a resumption of the bear trend…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The week of last year’s crop tour provided a rally of 41 3/4 cents in Dec corn and the corn market topped on August 28, the following Monday. The soybeans topped on August 31. The ensuing sell-off was significant.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Harvest Results and Headlines Are Drivers

Aug 21, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 21, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher as more harvest results are known. The USDA improved soybean conditions by 1% to 31% nationally while holding corn at 23% G/E. Soybeans in IL and IN showed a response to recent rains as the G/E improved by 2% in IL and 3% in IN. Grain futures are being driven by headlines as the well promoted crop tour crosses IN, IL, NE and IA; yields of 40 to 50 bushel an acre for corn has rekindled buying interest. A reminder: the week of last year’s crop tour provided a rally of 41 3/4 cents in Dec corn and the corn market topped on August 28, the following Monday. The soybeans topped on August 31. The ensuing sell-off was significant. We are working with producers to protect their crop insurance payments as insured fall price is determined during October. Stats-Canada will be releasing crop data on Wednesday and we have September option expiration on Friday. Macro markets are taking the back seat but the undertow could have an eventual impact on commodities as the EU zone struggles with debt and the fulfillment of austerity plans. Livestock producers are dealing with high feed costs and the availability of feed supplies. Will we see more herd reductions? Boxed beef was higher with choice up .82 and select up .53. Pork cutout values were up .46 on Monday. This week is a very important week for pricing opportunities, stay in touch with your Allendale representative and the Allendale Advisory on the web. Allendale is conducting the 23rd Annual Yield Survey and your help is needed. You know your fields better than anyone else. Go to www.Allendale-inc.com and fill out the survey.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +7 3/4
Nov Beans   +13
Sep Wheat   - 1/4
Oct Cattle stdy-lwr
Oct Hogs    stdy-lwr
Sep S&P     +1.00
Sep Dlr     -.02
Sep Crude   -.05
Dec Gold    -2.80
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s strength in Nov. Soybeans has set the 8/10 $16.91 ½ contract high in the crosshairs. We feel that it is only a matter of time before we see this high taken out. If we do see a failure at the highs, we would like to see the 8/14 low of $15.87 hold in order to prevent a potential peak and reversal threat…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed the following changes in fund positions between August 7 and 14…corn +17,216, soybeans +5,811, wheat -872, live cattle +7,330, lean hogs -302.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains Consolidate as Supply Battles Demand

Aug 20, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 20, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher as traders are looking at the weather forecast and news headlines for direction. Most forecasts are for cool temps this week and mostly normal precipitation for late August. The Pro Farmer crop tour through central OH, IN and IL will likely provide friendly headlines as those areas were some of the hardest hit by the drought of 2012. Out of the last 10 years, their estimate was below the USDA final number 6 times for corn and 5 times for soybeans. Crop ratings will be out this afternoon and most are expecting a steady number for corn and some improvement in soybeans. The CFTC commitment of traders report showed managed money adding to long corn positions by over 17,000 and adding to longs in all contracts in the soy complex. An observation: We have taken a further look at crop insurance protection for corn in IL and IN. They are two of the states hardest hit by drought. There is approximately 5.9 million acres between the 2 states that have no crop insurance protection. The producers in IL and IN have 70% and 65% of the corn crop protected by some type of crop insurance with nearly 78% covered by revenue protection plan. The takeaway from this information is that the agricultural community will likely have some dark spots in the months ahead. Another point is producers need to consider ways to protect the current price level as the fall option for the insurance is calculated by taking the average for December futures during the month of October. Cattle-on-feed report was neutral and should have little impact on futures when they open. Traders will be focused on grain prices and action in the equity markets at 9:05. Boxed beef was higher again Friday. Choice was up 1.55 and select was up .32. Pork cutout values were up .36 to close out the week. Stay in touch with Allende Advisory as we start our annual Allendale Yield Survey. You know your fields better than anyone. You can call us with your yields or fill out the survey form on our homepage. Thanks in advance for your help.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +7 3/4
Nov Beans   +13
Sep Wheat   - 1/4
Oct Cattle stdy-lwr
Oct Hogs    stdy-lwr
Sep S&P     +1.00
Sep Dlr     -.02
Sep Crude   -.05
Dec Gold    -2.80
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec. Corn is attempting to recover from the major rejection that was put in on 8/10. However this recovery attempt is beginning to slow down at higher levels. The smaller ranges and lower volume numbers are implying that buyers are beginning to lack conviction at these higher levels.  Structurally this leaves the Dec Corn chart looking very weak at these levels. While the uptrend is still intact we are showing signs of fatigue above $8.00 a close below the 8/15 $7.86 low we would advise neutral stance for speculators and a priced stance for producers…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The market is looking for confirmation of USDA’s 123.4 August yield estimate. It may get that confirmation from the Allendale Inc. annual yield survey. Respondents come from all geographic regions of all key Cornbelt states. This year’s two week survey starts on today! Share your estimates here
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Crop Insurance May Not Save All Producers

Aug 17, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 17, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed in a narrow trading range overnight. The weather forecast is cooler with chance of showers for next 10 days. We realize that will not change corn dramatically but will slow the dry down hopefully add a bit more quality. Soybeans should benefit from the moisture and cooler temps. Futures markets have been quiet this week as traders deal with the transition from a focus on supply to a focus on demand deterioration. Corn, beans and wheat are now cheaper for export in other countries than in the US. Many have commented that the farmer will be saved this year by crop insurance. We have looked at the data from RMA that shows only 65% of the planted acres of corn are covered by Revenue Protection insurance with the majority of those acres covered by the 75% or less plan. There are a total of approximately 76 million acres covered by some type of crop insurance plan. We are hearing stories of farmers already advising landlords that they were not going to get paid for rent this year. We are also hearing of producers without a crop and without crop insurance preparing for bankruptcy. It might be time to analyze the bushels you have sold and the bushels your crop insurance protects and lock in some revenue. Ex: 180 APH X 75% RP insurance X 8.00 Dec futures = $1080 per acre revenue. Talk to your Allendale Rep to help you with calculations and strategies for your operation. The USDA will be releasing the cattle on feed report this afternoon. Trade is looking for a decrease in July placements. However with the drought spreading west during July, pasture conditions may have forced more cattle to the feed yards. Boxed beef was higher again on Thursday with choice up .96 and select up 1.16. While pork cutout values were down .88. Sign up for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar on August 28.
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    -1 1/4
Nov Beans   +8 1/2
Sep Wheat   +7
Oct Cattle -.15
Oct Hogs    +.52
Sep S&P     -1.00
Sep Dlr     -.02
Sep Crude   -.45
Dec Gold    -.20
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s close in Dec Wheat is what is classified as a "throwback" day. A throwback day in when we trade back inside of the formation that we broke out of in this case a triangle formation. We have violated the 7/24 pivot low of $8.64 ¼ which we were using as our level to place bearish/priced decisions. However based on yesterday’s rejection of the downside breakout we must revert to a neutral position in the Wheat in fear of continued whipsaw risk…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Strategie Grains, an EU based analysis firm, lowered its expectation for EU corn production sharply, from 65.2 million tonnes to 58.1. They see problems for the Eastern areas such as Hungary, Romania, and the Czech Republic. This is even lower than USDA which on Friday lowered their EU production estimate from 65.5 to 61.5 mt.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corn Quality a Concern in Drought Areas

Aug 16, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 16, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed this morning in quiet overnight trade. Weather forecasts are remaining the same as earlier advertised. Cooler temps and some rain is slowing maturation of crops. We are getting reports from producers who are starting to harvest. A corn grower in IN is reporting mold and aflatoxin in corn that is 22% moisture and 51# test weight, yield guess about 50 bpa. Western IL producer opened a few fields with moisture levels too high to continue. He was estimating yield at 100+. Yields out of the delta have been excellent. The Allendale Yield Survey will begin on Monday and we will be asking for your participation in the survey. Yesterday, the market was filled with talk of China buying several cargos of soybeans for fall delivery. This morning we will be getting the weekly export sales from USDA. The range of estimates are: wheat 450-550 tmt, corn 350-550 tmt, soybeans 750-950 tmt, soymeal 150-250 tmt, and soyoil 10-20 tmt. Wednesday’s low will be watched by technical traders as major support. A close below those levels could trigger more selling. Cattle markets are waiting for packers to come looking for cattle. Boxed beef prices continue to move higher this week which should allow for at least 1.00 higher to be paid for cash cattle. Friday’s Cattle-on-feed report should show placements for July below a year ago levels. Choice beef was up 1.31 and select was up 1.40. Hog slaughter is running 75,000 head above last week. High feed cost is likely causing some of the increase in slaughter. Product is under pressure as pork cutout values were down 1.31 on Wednesday. Sign up for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar on August 28.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    + 3/4
Nov Beans   -5 3/4
Sep Wheat   +11 3/4
Oct Cattle -.12
Oct Hogs    -.07
Sep S&P     +1.00
Sep Dlr     +.15
Sep Crude   -.11
Dec Gold    -1.00
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s short term momentum failure in Oct Lean Hogs has the base and recovery attempt on the ropes. If we do see continued selling pressure and a close below the 8/08 $74.82 ½ low this would negate the recovery attempt as a correction in a bear market and could open up the Oct Lean Hogs to surprising losses…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Ethanol production in the latest week was 9% lower than last year. That is only marginally better than the 10% lower production made last week.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Last Week’s Lows Key Support For Grains

Aug 15, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 15, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher this morning as technical buying develops near last week’s lows. Rain should fall over the cornbelt with 70% coverage on the next 10 days. The Australian government announced that they now believe El Nino has arrived. Japan made the official announcement that it started last Friday. This could be why we are seeing moisture show up in the Midwest. Cash grain markets were weaker at the gulf but interior basis was higher for both corn and soybeans. Harvest in the delta is filling the demand for the slow export market at the gulf. Farmer selling has come to a standstill in the Midwest due to lower futures prices. Technical traders are keying in on last week’s low as critical support. A close below that level could open the door for more selling. News is limited as traders transition from the focus on supply side concerns to demand losses. Boxed beef prices have been on a steady climb. On Tuesday choice was up 2.32 and select was up 2.42. Demand from exports, Labor Day buying and government purchases are all helping support beef product. A close above the May 18th high is the next hurdle for Oct futures. Pork cutout values were .67 higher on Tuesday being supported by strong beef prices in recent weeks. October Lean Hog Futures will likely run into resistance near 78.00. Allendale is preparing for the Annual Yield Survey which will begin next week. Your participation in years past has been very helpful in getting an accurate reading on the corn yield going into the September USDA Report. The Allendale Team is also getting ready for the August Ag Leaders Webinar which will held on August 28; sign up today.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +4 1/2
Nov Beans   +15 3/4
Sep Wheat   +6 3/4
Aug Cattle +.77
Oct Hogs    +.15
Sep S&P     -2.75
Sep Dlr     +.20
Sep Crude   -.30
Aug Gold    -3.40
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s trade in Nov Soybeans found balance between buyers and sellers at lower levels. I feel that we should continue to see a consolidative trade until we see a confirmed break out of the triangle pattern that is shown in the chart below. Until we do see this breakout I feel that the whipsaw risk is too high to take a directional stance in the Soybeans…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The NOPA soybean crush report was very respectable. 137.380 million bushels of soybeans were crushed last month. That is a full 12% over last year and beat the 132.5 million bushel estimate. August is left and is the last month of the marketing year. If August runs just 10% higher than last year, which is reasonable, total year crush will end 1.702 billion. That beats USDA's 1.690 expectation. This is actually a big deal. If we beat USDA hopes by 12 million, that brings ending stocks (115 million new crop) down quite a bit closer to the important 100 mark.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crop Conditions Improve In Soybeans

Aug 14, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 14, 2012 at 4:50 am. Grain futures are higher after a sharp 2 day sell off. The USDA crop conditions report out yesterday afternoon held the G/E at 23% this week for corn however the P/VP category did increase by 1% from last week. Soybean conditions showed improvement by 1% in the G/E category with P/VP dropping 1% from a week ago. The weather forecast is keeping most of the cornbelt cool for the next 9 days then a ridging pattern could develop for a few days. Moisture will vary throughout the Midwest and provide a chance for soybean yield improvement. Corn futures seem to be changing focus from the hot, dry weather and production loss to demand destruction and technical chart patterns. It is important for bulls to stop the profit taking retreat in grains. A few observations: Dec corn as of last night’s close was .63 off the contract high and Nov soybeans were .70 off of Friday’s high. A close today either side of the 20 day moving average should be watched for potential direction indicator. Contact your Allendale Rep for more details. Livestock futures put in a strong performance on Monday as President Obama announced a government buying program for pork, lamb, chicken and catfish. The lower corn price translated into potentially less liquidation of herds and bull spreading in futures. Grain prices will likely impact spreading in the pork complex. Boxed beef was higher again on Monday. Choice beef was up 1.94 and select was up 1.77. Pork cutout values were down .33. Allendale will begin the Annual Allendale Yield Survey next week. We appreciate your participation.
 
 
Markets as of 4:50 AM
Dec Corn    +5 1/4
Nov Beans   +9
Sep Wheat   +4
Aug Cattle +.22
Aug Hogs    -.07
Sep S&P     +3.00
Sep Dlr     -.10
Sep Crude   +.36
Aug Gold    +4.20
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s strong trade in Oct Live Cattle has set the stage for a run at the 5/21 pivot high of $127.50. Yesterday’s close above the 7/30 $126.45 ½ high has taken out the nearest technical resistance ahead of the pivot high. However, a setback at these highs where we have found sellers in the past could set up a correction to the 8/02 lows of @123.55.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
USDA indicated the spring wheat crop is a full 65% harvested. This is far past the normal level of 24% in this week. We have a good crop, US prices are too high compared with competitors, and exports are running far too low to meet USDA’s hopes
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spike High Raises Concerns Of Blow Off Top

Aug 13, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 13, 2012 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are lower on follow through profit taking after Friday’s USDA Report. The dramatic drop in yield for both corn and soybeans by the USDA makes the report very believable. We would not be surprised to see further reduction in months ahead. The drop in demand due to high prices and expected supply tightness has caused traders to take profits on rallies in December corn. The weather forecast is cooler than expected for the next ten days with chances of showers which also is providing a reason for profit taking. The reversal in corn on Friday has many looking at the chart pattern as a potential blow-off top. It will be important to test Friday’s high in corn this week to keep the upward momentum running. Crop conditions report this afternoon could show an improvement in soybeans due to recent rains. The outside markets will be getting more attention now that the Olympics have concluded. Cattle futures should be supported on the opening due to the sharply higher boxed beef on Friday. Choice was up 2.43 and select was up 1.02. Hog futures are struggling with high grain prices and the negative breakeven. We should see an increase in liquidation in the pork industry over the next several months. Pork cutout values were down .11 to close out the week. Get all the details by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report.
 
 
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Dec Corn    -6 1/4
Nov Beans   -13 3/4
Sep Wheat   -12 3/5
Aug Cattle Stdy-Higher
Aug Hogs    Stdy-Higher
Sep S&P     -1.75
Sep Dlr     -.07
Sep Crude   +.71
Aug Gold    +3.70
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Friday’s trade in the Dec Corn saw new highs on selling. The $8.49 high is now the pivot high that all bearish decisions should be risked against. In terms of a one day technical pattern new highs that are rejected can only be considered negative. We also put in an outside range day down which is a bearish one day pattern at the top of the chart. All of these factors considered we may have seen enough of a change in short term momentum that we may see a pullback from these higher prices.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
USDA lowered corn yield more than expected to 123.4 bushels per acre. Harvested acres declined by 1.5 million. That was lower than the 2.0 to 2.3 million much of the trade had been expecting. Combined together, this dropped corn production a large 2.191 billion bushels. However, due to a 115 million drop in old crop demand and a 1.495 billion drop in new crop demand, the demand offset was 73% of the decline. New crop ending stocks declined from 1.183 billion to 650 million.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Minute Jockeying Into USDA Announcements

Aug 10, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 10, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher. This morning we are looking at traders making last minute adjustments ahead of USDA Report at 7:30. A few of the numbers to watch is corn yield. Trade average estimate is 127.3 bushel per acre. That is a 21% decline from trend yield and in 1988 we had 28% decline from trend to final yield. Total production for corn is estimated by trade to be 11.010 billion bushel. That is nearly a 2 billion bushel drop from July estimate. Soybean yields are expected to decline to 37.3 but will USDA lower the yield with potential improvement due to recent rains. The ending stocks for corn and soybeans are heavily watched as USDA adjusts for demand deterioration. The open outcry pit will start trading today at 7:20. Watch the "Morning Coffee" on YouTube after the 7:30 release of data. Steve will be providing this morning’s update because I will be in Portland OR visiting an Allendale Branch Office. You are welcome to call and talk to any Allendale Rep at 800-262-7538. Cash cattle traded in the north at 190 dressed. Boxed beef values were higher with choice up1.28 and select up 1.28. Pork cutout values were .32 on Thursday. Livestock futures will be affected by the grain supply and demand report, keep an eye on trading at 7:30.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +5 1/4
Nov Beans   +7 1/2
Sep Wheat   +3 1/4
Aug Cattle -.50
Aug Hogs    +1.75
Sep S&P     -5.75
Sep Dlr     +1.20
Sep Crude   -1.43
Aug Gold    -.66
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s trade in Oct Lean Hogs are attempting to carve out a base and reversal low. A close above the 8/03 $78.62 ½ high is needed to confirm this strength. A close below the 08/08 $74.82 ½ low would imply another leg lower.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The monthly Consumer Price Index report showed inflation fell in July to only a 1.8% year over year growth. In June it was up 2.2%. Very low inflation is positive as it allows their central bank more room to continue expansionary monetary policy. The market trades as though China’s economic growth rate directly correlates with their soybean imports (no actual direct correlation).
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corn Set New All Time Highs

Aug 09, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 9, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher as we wait. Corn sets new all-time highs in overnight session. Tomorrow morning’s USDA Supply and Demand report is the focus story this morning. Traders are adjusting positions. The comments from clients are "if it is not bullish, it can’t be bearish." When attitude is heavily weighted with one bias we suggest to be prepared for the unexpected. Rain is in the forecast for a major portion of the Midwest for the next 48 hours. This moisture should be beneficial to the beans that are still alive. USDA will give us weekly export sales this morning at 7:30, the estimates are: corn 950 to 1,200 tmt, soybeans 350 to 450 tmt, soymeal 100 to 200 tmt, soyoil 15 to 25 tmt and wheat 450 to 550 tmt. Cash markets at the gulf are firm for soybeans due to recent sales announcements. Corn basis is termed as dull with light demand and supplies adequate because of early delta harvest. Ethanol production data was supportive only because it was greater than last week. The production was well below last year and below levels needed to meet USDA projections. There were 33 cattle deliveries on Wednesday after the sharp futures rally. Feedlots are asking 122 to 123. There were some packer bids showing up in Kansas at 116 late yesterday. Boxed beef was higher again on Wednesday with choice up 1.52 and select up 1.40. Pork cutout values were down .32. Lean hog futures have put in a strong technical performance in the August contract as we near last trading day. We expect market to be very sensitive to headlines going into the report tomorrow morning. Call your Allendale Rep with questions or check in with the Allendale Advisory Report on the web.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +7
Nov Beans   +6
Sep Wheat   +6 1/4
Aug Cattle -.05
Aug Hogs    +.20
Sep S&P     +.50
Sep Dlr     +.17
Sep Crude   +.23
Aug Gold    -.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Wheat continued its sideways range. We feel that this market should continue to be avoided until Dec Wheat shows its directional hand in the next few weeks.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Technically, ethanol production did rise in the latest week from 809,000 to 817,000 barrels per day. However, compared with last year the pace actually worsened. In order for us to meet USDA’s hopes for old crop corn for ethanol, production now has to run 1% under last year.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grain Quiet As We Wait

Aug 08, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 8, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are lower this morning led by profit taking in corn and wheat. The weather has become secondary to the upcoming USDA Supply and Demand report. The average yield estimate by trade analysts is 127.3 for corn and 37.75 for soybeans. Historical data suggests that the final yields will be less than the August numbers however NASS feels confident they have improved their sampling methodology which should allow them to capture the true loss in yield. Our studies show that the futures set the high price before the worst yield is known. The Goldman Roll started yesterday which is having its effect on the spread closes. The longs in the corn market will likely stand their ground going into the report even with a test of trendline support. The advertisement of more rain in the Midwest has soybean traders taking some profits ahead of Friday’s report. A close above or below the 20 day moving average will be important for chart watchers in soybeans. Boxed beef closed higher on Tuesday. Choice was up 1.41 and select was 1.55 higher this is likely a confirmation the seasonal lows in beef prices are behind us. Cash cattle markets are expected to trade 1.00 to 2.00 higher this week. Pork cutout values were 1.45 lower however futures seem to be getting support from cattle. Expect quiet markets with bouts of volatility as we approach Friday’s report. Stay tuned to Allendale Advisory Report for updates.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -5 1/2
Nov Beans   -5
Sep Wheat   -9 1/4
Aug Cattle +1.20
Aug Hogs    +1.07
Sep S&P     -4.50
Sep Dlr     +.16
Sep Crude   -.66
Aug Gold    -3.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s trade in Oct Live Cattle saw a weaker trading range. The market closed near the open and is indicating a balance between buyers and sellers. The uptrend remains intact as long as the 8/2 pivot low of $123.55 is not violated.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
A Reuters newswire poll of analysts found an average trade guess for corn of 127.3 yield, 11.026 billion production, and ending stocks of 660 million bushels. Soybeans were estimated at 37.8 yield, 2.817 billion production, and 112 million ending stocks. The wheat crop was seen at 2.205 billion, little changed from USDA’s July report.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Traders Dig In Heels Going Into USDA Report

Aug 07, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 7, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are higher in a narrow range session. Traders are watching headlines for direction as we near the August Supply and Demand Report. Weathermen have put some crop stress relief in the forecast for later this week by adding rain and cooler temps. Yesterday afternoon the USDA released the weekly crop conditions which put the G/E at 23% for corn and kept beans the same as last week, 29%. Some key takeaways from this report is that 0% of the corn in IL and IN is excellent and the poor to very poor category increased by 2% nationwide. Next week it is possible to see soybean conditions improve from the weekend rains and cooler temps. Grain traders are looking for the yields to drop on Friday’s S/D report which, in turn, could drop production to 1.7-2.0 billion bushels. We would advise that it is likely the USDA could reduce demand by 72% which could put ending stocks in the700 million range. The soybeans have a much more complex picture. Chart watchers are looking for a second close below the 20 day moving average in November soybeans to signal a reason for selling. Corn remains in a narrow trading range on the charts which could add to the volatility on Friday morning. The macro markets continue to talk about the Euro getting their act together and the possibility of QE3 in the US. Livestock markets are being hit with news of breeding stock going to market. This is creating concern about burdensome meat supplies near-term but could create shorter supplies in 2013. Boxed beef prices were higher on Monday with choice up .35 and select up .77. Pork cutout values were up 1.10. Look for Ag markets to be choppy going into Friday’s report.
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    +3 1/2
Nov Beans   +13
Sep Wheat   +2 1/4
Aug Cattle -.27
Aug Hogs    +.87
Sep S&P     +1.00
Sep Dlr     -.07
Sep Crude   +.06
Aug Gold    -.20
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday opened below the 20day moving average which the Nov. Beans have held the last two times we touched it. The market did not violate the uptrend line but this is the tightest close to the trend line in six weeks . A close below the $15.36 7/25 low would require defensive priced measures for producers.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Weekend rains ran 0.20 to 0.80 inch with widespread 85% coverage. Rains are seen again for the Cornbelt on Wednesday with another 0.20 to 0.80 inch system.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weather Cools Off Trade

Aug 06, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 6, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are lower on cooler forecast and outside market adjustments from Friday’s close. Traveling across northern IL this past weekend provided some very alarming views of a corn crop. However there were fields of excellent looking corn and soybeans. It would appear the tillage practices had a huge impact this year. It will be interesting how the USDA will deal with fields harvested for silage that would have produced zero corn when combined. The rains which fell across 2/3 of the cornbelt should be helpful to soybeans but will need another shower very soon. Forecasts are for cooler temps this week than earlier thought. Crop conditions will likely slide another 1 to 2% this afternoon. This week, traders will be getting positioned for the August USDA Supply and Demand Report on Friday morning. The key focus points on this report will be yield, and harvested acres. Ending stocks adjustment for old crop corn and beans is a highlighted point of interest. Keep a close-eye on headlines coming out of the EU this week. Goldman roll should start on Tuesday. Livestock producers are struggling with the drought and finding feed supplies. Meat production is higher as producers liquidate breeding stock. Congress left Washington for a 5 week summer vacation without passing the drought assistance bill for livestock producers. Boxed beef had choice down .01 and select up .25 on Friday. Pork cutout values were up .37. Look for direction from where the dollar and grain prices are trading at the 9:05 opening for cattle and hogs.
 
Subscribe today to the Allendale Research Center for a special introductory price.
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    -9
Nov Beans   -37 1/2
Sep Wheat   -10 1/2
Aug Cattle Stdy-Hgr
Aug Hogs    Stdy-Hgr
Sep S&P     +2.50
Sep Dlr     +.10
Sep Crude   -.42
Aug Gold    -1.50
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Fridays close was the first close for front month Corn above $8.00 in the history of the Corn contract. The market must now take out the 7/31 $8.20 ½ high in order to continue to confirm strength "uphere".We still feel that producers need to keep an eye on the $7.45 level in order to begin protecting unpriced bushels.
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Non-farm payrolls came in at 163,000 last month versus the trade estimate of 101,000. On the other hand, the US unemployment rate went up to 8.3%. The trade was looking for 8.2%.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weather, Demand and Sunday Night

Aug 03, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 3, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are slightly lower in a quiet overnight session. Weather news is getting stale as corn moves to maturity and rain will not provide much help. Soybeans could see some benefit from rain but time is running out there as well. Traders now focus on curbing demand. In corn, we are seeing evidence of a slow down with exports well behind USDA forecast levels and the slowdown in ethanol production. Livestock feeders are cutting back as well by reducing herd size. Soybean demand has not given us clear of indications. Processors are still aggressive bidders for beans. The macro markets applied pressure to commodities this week when Bernanke of the Fed and Draghi of the ECB provided no change to current financial policy. The Goldman Roll will start on August 7th. Barge traffic on the Mississippi came to a standstill on Thursday when barges ran aground. As we close out the week traders will be focusing on Sunday night trade. Six out of the last seven Monday’s futures opened sharply higher. The corn market is now in its 9th week of a bull market. Watch headlines for directions. Last chance to subscribe to the Allendale Research Center at the special rate! Packers came out of hibernation yesterday afternoon, when they bought cattle as high 119 in NE and CO which is 4.00 to 6.00 higher. This aggressive buying in the cash excited buyers in futures. A strong close for the week in cattle futures could be confirming a seasonal bottom. Boxed beef was higher on Thursday with choice up .46 and select up .55. Lean hog futures are getting pressure as traders unwind the long hog, short cattle spreads and the strength in the dollar reduces export potential. Pork cutout was down 1.25 on Thursday.
 
Subscribe today to the Allendale Research Center for a special introductory price.
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    -2
Nov Beans   - 1/2
Sep Wheat   +1 1/2
Aug Cattle +.62
Aug Hogs    -.10
Sep S&P     +9.50
Sep Dlr     -.39
Sep Crude   +1.12
Aug Gold    +7.20
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
A head and shoulders top was confirmed today with a lower close today. The Move projects four dollars lower to $88.65
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Thursday morning’s export sales report from last week showed 201,000 tonnes of sales which is better than last week but certainly not positive. For the week, the same thing can be said for both the ethanol and export reports, better but not good. 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Waffling Forecast Worries Traders

Aug 02, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 2, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mostly lower. Weather still remains a dominant force in the grain markets and the models are waffling on a consistent forecast. However the trade is starting to focus on demand for corn and soybeans in the 2012-13 marketing year. Today it is expected that 120+ lawmakers in Washington will make a plea to the EPA to change the RFS mandate. Hog producers are reported to be liquidating sows because of concern of getting consistent feed supplies. Export data, to be released later this morning, will likely be dismal. The bounce in Dec corn late in the session yesterday is considered a save for the technical trading bulls. A close below the 20 day moving average in corn and soybeans could cause a deeper sell-off. South America is expecting large increases in corn and soybean production this year versus last year. Stay in touch with the Allendale Research Center by subscribing to the special offer before Friday. USDA weekly exports sales estimates for corn is 0 to 250 tmt, soybeans 380 to 605 tmt, soymeal 160 to 320 tmt, soyoil 0 to 50 tmt, and wheat 350 to 650 tmt. Cattle futures are getting ready for possible large deliveries against the August contract. Monday is first notice day and if the discount of cash to futures remains as wide as it is today, one would have to expect sizeable deliveries. Currently, the cash market is at a standstill with bids at 113 and asks at 118 to 119. Boxed beef was lower, choice down .13 and select down .26. Pork cutout came to life on Wednesday closing up 2.12.
 
Subscribe today to the Allendale Research Center for a special introductory price.
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    -3 1/2
Nov Beans   - 1/2
Sep Wheat   -7 3/4
Aug Cattle -.22
Aug Hogs    +.05
Sep S&P     +6.00
Sep Dlr     -.25
Sep Crude   +.43
Aug Gold    +.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s weak trade in Oct Live Cattle shows a slowdown in momentum to the upside. From a big picture perspective the double bottom projects out to $129.05 all bullish bets must be risked against the $122.15 7/26 pivot low…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Early Wednesday, we were given an ethanol number that was better than last week coming in at 806 vs. 796 last week. This week obviously has a better number but the chart shows that we are still very far from being able to call this number "good".  
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Economic Data Releases May Influence Grain Prices

Aug 01, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 1, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are lower on profit taking. The weather models reduced some of the rain which was put into the forecast on yesterday’s noon runs. The macro markets are being watched closely today as the FOMC meeting minutes will be released this afternoon. Trade is looking for possible QE3 announcement. The European Central Bank will be meeting on Thursday. We have more economic data coming out later this week. The demand for corn at the gulf has dried up due to a $35 to $40 Brazilian corn discount. It was pointed out to me yesterday that corn is showing signs of mature bull market. It is making new highs on decreasing volume and decreasing open interest. Watch for a change to that pattern. There are some market watchers who are becoming adamantly bullish with yield projections far below the average estimates and price projections are off the charts. Time will tell who is right. One must remember there has to be a buyer for high priced corn and that corn yields are stabilizing or improving in areas where they received rain. Corn is being harvested already in areas where there is extreme drought. Sometimes we have to be reminded that we must make decisions based on our operation and only we can control the risk and profitability. We suggest looking at ways to lock in crop insurance payments, talk to your Allendale Representative. Beef demand should improve as we move into August. Seasonals are suggesting we may be seeing a low in the product where it should provide some support to fed cattle. Boxed beef was higher on Tuesday. Choice was up .20 and select was up .31. Cash cattle are at a standstill so far this week. Pork cutouts were unchanged on Tuesday. Lean Hog futures are being pushed around by funds and weak cash markets.
 
Subscribe today to the Allendale Research Center for a special introductory price.
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    -7 3/4
Nov Beans   -9 1/2
Sep Wheat   -17 3/4
Aug Cattle +.02
Aug Hogs    -.02
Sep S&P     +5.00
Sep Dlr     -.02
Sep Crude   +.10
Aug Gold    +1.40
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s trade found the Dec Wheat on the defensive. Technically, we did not do enough damage to the chart to indicate a change in trend; however we are clearly losing momentum to the upside. I am looking for a close below the 7/24 pivot low of $8.64 ¼ to indicate a peak and reversal set up…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Over the next 6-10 days we need to see better precip than we have. Today’s chart shows us that the forecast is for normal to above normal rainfall and slightly above normal temps for a good portion of the growing region. This should help the bean crop moving forward if we can see some shower activity develop
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

Receive the latest news, information and commentary customized for you. Sign up to receive Beef Today's Cattle Drive today!. Interested in the latest prices for cattle in your area? See highlights of the latest for-sale cattle in the Cattle-Exchange eNewsletter.

Hot Links & Cool Tools

    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  

facebook twitter youtube View More>>
 
 
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions