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AgDay Daily Recap -July 31, 2014

July 31, 2014
 
 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 31, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY - ONLY ON AGDAY - ARE LAND VALUES SETTING-UP FOR A BUBBLE? "IT'S NATURAL THAT COMMODITY PRICE THAT'S DOUBLING AND TRIPLING THE PRIMARY ASSET WOULD ALSO INCREASE IN VALUE." "IS IT POSSIBLE TO GROW 100 BUSHEL SOYBEANS? THAT STORY COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY..." IN AGRIBUSINESS...HOW MUCH DOWNSIDE RISK IS LEFT IN CORN MARKETS BETWEEN NOW AND HARVEST.AND THIS ARCHITECTURAL ICON COULD BE YOURS! AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL NEW CHEVY SILVERADO - THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
RABOBANK LAND VALUES:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AS COMMODITY PRICES CONTINUE TO STUMBLE DOWN THE PATH OF LOWER PRICES, WHAT ROUTE WILL FARMLAND VALUES TAKE? AND ARE THEY SETTING-UP FOR A STUMBLE AS WELL? THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
CARGILL MILWAUKEE:
CARGILL IS CLOSING ANOTHER OF ITS BEEF HARVESTING PLANTS DUE TO TIGHT CATTLE SUPPLY AS RANCHERS TRY TO RE-BUILD THEIR HERDS. THIS PLANT IS LOCATED IN MILWAUKEE. THE COMPANY SAYS IT WILL SHUT THE DOORS OF ITS HARVEST FACILITY THIS FRIDAY. 600 PEOPLE WILL LOSE THEIR JOBS. CARGILL WILL KEEP THE GROUND BEEF PLANT ON THE SAME SITE OPEN.
COOL UPHELD:
IN OUR BEEF TODAY REPORT, THE FIGHT OVER COUNTRY OF ORGIN LABEL CONTINUES TO HEAT UP. A NEW COURT RULING RAISES THE STAKES WITH OUR TRADING PARTNERS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME A CLOSER LOOK AT GRAIN MARKETS AND WHERE PRICES MAYBE HEADED COME HARVEST. PLUS, MIKE HOFFMAN RETURNS WITH A CHECK ON FARM COUNTRY WEATHER.
ANALYSIS:
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WE'RE TALKING TO JAMEY KOHAKE AND HE'S WITH PARAGON INVESTMENTS JAMEY WANT TO TALK TO YOU A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE CORN SITUATIONS WE'VE GOT MORE ACRES THAN WE'VE EVER HAD LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A BETTER YIELD THAN WE'VE EVER HAD AND EVERY OTHER COUNTRY HAS PLANTED CORN OUT THERE WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO WITH ALL THE CORN THAT'S GOING TO BE PRODUCED AROUND THE WORLD THIS YEAR. YEA THAT'S THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION OF HOW MUCH CAN WE EXPORT AND HOW CAN USE AS FEED AS EVERYONE KNOWS THE CATTLE HERDS IS SMALL SINCE THE 50S WE MIGHT SEE THE HOG HERD DOWN ANYWHERE BETWEEN 8 AND 20% COMPARED TO LAST YEAR SO WHERE'S THIS WHERE'S THIS GOING TO GO TO. WHERE IS THE DEMAND...YEA THAT'S THE QUESTION I THINK IT'S GOING TO TAKE MAYBE A YEAR AND A HALF TO TWO YEARS TO EAT THIS AWAY IF WE CAN KEEP TREND LINE YIELDS UP HERE AT 170 OR HIGHER WHICH WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING RIGHT NOW IN MY OPINION. AND WE HAD EVER TALKED ABOUT PRICE AND YOU SAID WHEN THE MARKET IS TRADING RIGHT NOW. RIGHT, BUT HIGHER PRICES ARE GOING TO MEAN WE AREN'T GOING TO HAVE IT HOW LOW ARE THE PRICES GOING TO HAVE TO GO DRIVE AT. YEA RIGHT I THINK 3.50 HOLDS RIGHT NOW. YOU THINK SO. UNTIL THE AUGUST 12TH CROP REPORT BUT I THINK ONCE YOU GET POST LABOR DAY INTO FALL I'M THINK 3.20 THAT AREA WE'VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN DEMAND BUT CORN AND IN BEANS THIS WEEK HOPEFULLY WE CAN STILL SEE THAT YOU KNOW TREND CONTINUE UPWARDS AND SUPPORT THIS MARKET BUT I THINK THERE'S STILL 30 40 CENTS OF DOWNSIDE ONCE THE COMBINES START ROLLING. OKAY WHENEVER THE COMBINES START ROLLING AND I SUPPOSE THAT THE YIELD IS BETTER THAN THEY THOUGHT IT WAS GOING TO BE IN SOME OF THOSE AREAS YOU STILL THINK 3.20. I THINK 3.20 THAT OR I THINK THE BASIS FALLS OUT OF BED MORE THAN IT ALREADY HAS I MEAN BASIS IS THE WORST THAT I'VE SEEN IN A LONG TIME AND I THINK THAT'S WHERE THE GUYS COULD GET STUNG OUT MORE THAN THEY WOULD TRYING TO YOU KNOW TRADING AT 5%. WELL THERE'S SOME OTHER THINGS THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT NOT JUST PRICE OF CORN CASH PRICE OF CORN IS ONE THING BUT THEN BEING ABLE TO TRANSPORT THE CORN AND ALL THIS SORT OF THING IS ANOTHER THING AND THAT CAN ALSO AS YOU SAID BASIS MIGHT BE DOWN SO YOU MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAYBE SOMETHING IN FRONT OF A 2. ABSOLUTELY BASIS WISE FOR SURE WE'RE ALREADY SEEING A 1 IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUT YEA I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE 2 FOR THE CASH PRICE FOR SURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST I DON'T THINK THAT'S OUT OF QUESTION AT ALL. SO THE THING WE NEED TO TELL PRODUCERS IS GET READY FOR IT. YEA GET READY SELL RALLIES LIKE I SAID ON THE SHOW 3.77 UP TO 3.90 YOU KNOW HOPEFULLY COMING IN THE BIG CROP REPORT GET A SELL ON BUT I WOULD BE SHORT AND I WOULDN'T BE YOU KNOW HOPING TO SIT BACK AND PLAY THE CARRY GAME. JAMEY KOHAKE PARAGON INVESTMENT HERE ON AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY, MIKE I GUESS THEY CALL THIS THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ALTHOUGH OF A HUSKY THIS YEAR. A LITTLE COOLER...YEAH THAT'S PROBABLY A GOOD POINT BECAUSE THE JET STREAM ISN'T WAY NORTH LIKE IT IS DURING THE DOLDRUMS OF SUMMER BUT ITS ACTUALLY A CUT OFF IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND THAT'S WHAT'S REALLY DOMINATING MOST OF THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY ESPECIALLY. SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOVEMENT IN THE WEATHER MAP THERE'S THE WAY IT LOOKS THIS MORNING A COUPLE OF BRIEF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN PORTIONS AS WELL. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS GOING TO BE WITH THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIGHT NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS THAT'S JUST BARELY GOING T BE MOVING EASTWARD AND THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE NOT STRONG BUT WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON VARIETY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO PUTTING THE MAPS INTO MOTION, YOU'LL SEE THINGS KIND OF FIRE UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NOT A WHOLE LOT AROUND THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE WE'RE KIND OF IN BETWEEN THE COOL FRONT SWINGING AROUND THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUT NONE THE LESS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SPOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GET A LITTLE BIT. AND THAT'S SOME DECENT RAIN PARTS OF COLORADO AND PARTS OF NEW MEXICO WHEREVER THOSE THUNDERSTORMS POP UP IT COULD PUT IT DOWN PRETTY GOOD. THEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT THINGS KIND OF CALM DOWN A LITTLE BIT BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS SOUTHEAST AND ALSO PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE ACTIVITY BECAUSE OF THIS NEXT COOL FRONT SWINGING AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA. THAT WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN SPOTTY NOTHING WIDESPREAD IN THOSE AREAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS IS GOING TO BE AROUND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO AROUND THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOON. SO THERE'S THE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA HAVE GOTTEN A DECENT AMOUNT. SOME AREAS TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN... LET’S ADD ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND YOU CAN SEE WE WILL TRACK THIS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND SOME AREAS GET AN INCH OR TWO OUT OF IT IN EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. NOT SUCH BAD NEWS ACTUALLY. AND SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA GET A FAIR AMOUNT AS WELL. OTHER THAN THAT IT’S KIND OF HIT AND MISS UNTIL YOU GET TO PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND SOME DECENT RAINS THERE. OF COURSE THAT IS VERY MUCH NEEDED. THERE'S THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT YOU'LL NOTICE WHERE IT’S RAINY AND CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOME 70S SHOWING UP FOR HIGHS 90S CONFINED TO SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GOING TO BE IN THE 60S IN MOST OF THE CORN BELT AND OF COURSE COOLER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... EVEN MID 70S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST IS COOLER THAN USUAL. THEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE'LL SEE A LOT OF 80S ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE DAKOTAS BUT STILL SOME 60'S AND 70S IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTH EAST. THERE'S THE JET STREAM AND THERE'S THAT PERSISTENT CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SIT THERE FOR AWHILE SLOWLY WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BUT YOU CAN STILL SEE KIND OF THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH SITTING THERE AND ANOTHER PIECE DIGGING IN NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL KEEP IT KIND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT NOT BY A WHOLE LOT IN THE CORN BELT. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR EUGENE OREGON TODAY LOTS OF SUNSHINE VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES TULSA OKLAHOMA MOSTLY CLOUDY A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO THERE HIGH OF 79 AND DOVER DELAWARE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM THE AFTERNOON HIGH AROUND 83.
ITC CATSUP BOTTLE:
THERE ARE ARCHITECTURAL ICONS THAT NEED NO EXPLANATION - THE EIFFEL TOWER, THE EMPIRE STATE BUILDING, AND THE ST. LOUIS ARCH. BUT THERE'S ONE NOT TOO FAR FROM THE ARCH THAT YOU MAY NOT KNOW EXISTS. THE ROADSIDE ATTRACTION IS A "MUST SEE" IF YOU EVER TRAVEL THROUGH COLLINSVILLE, ILLINOIS. AND IF YOU LIKE IT THAT MUCH, YOU CAN BUY IT! HANNAH BUCHDAHL HAS DETAILS ON THIS CONDIMENT CAPER.
RESTURANT TRENDS:
AS GENERATIONS PASS, SO DO THE PRIORITIES WHEN IT COMES TO RESTAURANT SERVICES AND CHOICES. THE MARKET RESEARCH FIRM, TECHNOMIC, JUST RELEASED THE RESULTS OF A NEW STUDY ON FOOD SERVICE. IT COMPARES GENERATIONS FROM THE OLDEST - BABY BOOMERS, TO THE YOUNGEST - GENERATION Z. DINING-FORMAT PREFERENCES VARY BY GENERATION. BOOMERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO VISIT RESTAURANTS FOR DINE-IN, GEN Z ARE MOST LIKELY TO ORDER TAKEOUT, AND MILLENNIALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OPT FOR DELIVERY. GEN Z IS CONSIDERED THE FIRST TRUE DIGITAL GENERATION. TECHNOMIC SAYS IT'S THE CONSUMER GROUP OF THE FUTURE AND THEY PRIORITIZE SPEED OF SERVICE, TECHNOLOGY, AND HAVING WHAT THEY WANT, WHEN THEY WANT IT.
RFD PROMO:
THURSDAY ON AGDAY - WE'VE HEARD THE WARNINGS BEFORE, BUT ARE FARMLAND VALUES
FACING THE REAL THREAT OF A BUBBLE? WE'LL HAVE EXPERT ANALYSIS.
AND, WHAT'S IT TAKE TO GROW 100 BUSHEL SOYBEANS? ONE GROWER SHARES HIS SECRETS.
JOIN US EIGHT EASTERN ON RFD.
STATION PROMO:
FRIDAY ON AGDAY...CROP RATINGS MAYBE HIGH, BUT THERE ARE SOME ROUGH SPOTS IN CORN COUNTRY. WE'LL GIVE YOU A BIRDS-EYE VIEW.
PLUS THE PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING.... THE CATTLE MARKET IS ALL KINDS OF FUN TO WATCH...MAKING NEW HIGHS"
JOIN US FRIDAY MORNING FOR NEWS THAT MATTERS - ON AGDAY.


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