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Bob Utterback: ‘The Storm Clouds Are Looming’

February 15, 2013
By: Nate Birt, Top Producer Deputy Managing Editor google + 

Government policies related to taxes and inflation, coupled with USDA projections for corn prices and other factors will make for years of violent market swings, says Bob Utterback, Farm Journal economist.

During a seminar at the 2013 National Farm Machinery Show, Utterback explored market trends and offered recommendations for corn, soybeans and cattle going forward. Watch his complete remarks in the video below, then read on for an overview of his suggestions.



Corn recommendations:

  • Plant maximum acres possible
  • Buy crop insurance
  • Sell December 2013 corn at $5.80 to $5.95 via deep-in-the-money puts rather than cash or short futures
  • Hold to fall, then take profits and capture carry storage return


Soybean recommendations:

  • Plant only what is needed
  • Focus on selling November 2013 at $13 to $13.50 in long deep-in-the-money puts
  • Sell beans off the combine


Cattle recommendations:

  • Expect $125 to hold most of the year; could see historic high prices. Very limited price protection suggested for 2013
  • Start prepping for downside risk exposure in 2014 when breeding herd expansion kicks in
  • Start working on developing an aggressive multi-year feed-buying campaign each fall and focus on locking up bonds for interest rate exposure

 

Read more of Utterback's marketing insight with is Farm Journal column: Outlook.

..................................

See Farm Journal Media's full coverage of the 2013 National Farm Machinery Show.

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COMMENTS (5 Comments)

Chadlit - SD
I agree with the Minnesota Farmer. In our area the subsoil moisture has been depleting the last 3 years. Last year did the most damage. It's going to be hard for the 2013 crop to get out of the blocks in our area.

I always get a kick out of listening to these economist and marketing specialists talk about the markets and what they would do. The thing is, they aren't farming and there is probably a reason why.

Anybody can make correlations or take past data to make a their own case as to what the future may hold be it for their own benefit or to supposedly help others.

You are the farmer and you yourself need to do what you think is best for your operation. Take their info with a grain of salt.
10:04 AM Feb 18th
 
Chadlit - SD
I agree with the Minnesota Farmer. In our area the subsoil moisture has been depleting the last 3 years. Last year did the most damage. It's going to be hard for the 2013 crop to get out of the blocks in our area.

I always get a kick out of listening to these economist and marketing specialists talk about the markets and what they would do. The thing is, they aren't farming and there is probably a reason why.

Anybody can make correlations or take past data to make a their own case as to what the future may hold be it for their own benefit or to supposedly help others.

You are the farmer and you yourself need to do what you think is best for your operation. Take their info with a grain of salt.
10:04 AM Feb 18th
 
Pro Farmer Sales - Webster City, IA
The USDA doesn't have a clue what crop production will be in 2013 anymore than any of us out here.
8:22 AM Feb 16th
 
Pro Farmer Sales - Webster City, IA
The USDA doesn't have a clue what crop production will be in 2013 anymore than any of us out here.
8:22 AM Feb 16th
 
Minnesota Farmer - Brownsdale, MN
does anyone understand that we have no water to grow another crop
11:38 AM Feb 15th
 



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