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Just How Big is the 2014 Corn Crop?

August 6, 2014
By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
nebraska corn ears 2013
  

All signs are pointing to a record crop, but is there a chance analysts are overshooting the mark?

Corn prices have been under significant pressure in the last three months, as ideal weather fueled predictions of a record yield and possibly a record crop. "Since May, corn has fallen over $1.50 from highs," says Ted Seifried, vice president of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group.

Power Hour Noon LogoSeifried says some farmers will likely get the best corn crop of their career this year, but doesn’t think that will be the situation across the board. "At this point there is little question that this corn crop will be big, but the question is really how big?" he says. "With the lowest planted acreage in four years, the corn crop really needed to be above average this year to keep the balance sheet from getting tighter."


Watch Ted Seifried on AgDay's Agribusiness Update this week:


Due to wet conditions at planting, flooding earlier in the year and hail events, Seifried says, harvested acres may drop, potentially by 800,000 acres. "We will likely have a record production level, but it may not be as high as some analysts are thinking," he says.

Seifried says that many times, things can seem better than they are and this year may be one of those times. If yields aren’t as high as they are being predicted, he says, corn prices may hit a low sometime in the next month and then rally though harvest.

"This usually only happens when the crop is not as good as expected," he says. "It is hard to say that we could be disappointed with a record national average yield this year, but at this point expectations may be getting unrealistic."
 

Read Seifried's blog: The Ted Spread
 

Read more Top Producer Power Hour news.
 


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COMMENTS (3 Comments)

WhyMeJake
Record Crop? Wow! Late planted, didn't tassel until about 3 weeks later than usual with the low spots short and much drowned out here in SW Minnesota. Government reports seem a bit pie-in-the-sky but that's nothing new.

Northern Iowa had a very wet spring as well. I don't know if it is getting overly dry but we could sure use a couple of inches. The whole point of these predictions was to get the corn price down. Job well done. When was the last time the government didn't predict near record forecasts? I guess they are trying to help the farmers out (of farming).


7:15 PM Aug 8th
 
Bulldawg - Greensburg, IN
Love the fague interpretations...not as this ...not as that....but yet we still are going down. Guess the slide is not a slippery, but yet we still fall. I feel much better now...
9:53 AM Aug 8th
 
Bulldawg - Greensburg, IN
Love the fague interpretations...not as this ...not as that....but yet we still are going down. Guess the slide is not a slippery, but yet we still fall. I feel much better now...
9:53 AM Aug 8th
 



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