' /> Chip's Chore Time | Dairy Today

 
Aug 29, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions| Sign UpLogin


June 2011 Archive for Chip's Chore Time

RSS By: Chip Flory, Pro Farmer

Chore time for me isn't what it used to be when I was growing up on our eastern Iowa farm. In fact... I don't even have horse chores to do any more!

June 27 Wake Up Call

Jun 27, 2011

Chip Flory

Every Monday morning, Pro Farmer editors record the "Monday Morning Wake Up Call." It's a recorded message available by clicking here.
 

But... if you'd rather read the report instead of listening, each Monday morning I'll update the copy from the call here to help set your agenda of key issues that will be impacting the grain and livestock markets in the week ahead.

Monday Morning Wake Up Call

Good morning ... this is the June 27th edition of the Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.

Another round of rains moved across the western Corn Belt yesterday and overnight and those same systems are dumping more rain on the eastern Corn Belt and Missouri this morning. Traders still generally have a “rain makes grain” attitude and will have that attitude until USDA’s Weekly Crop Condition Report starts to show deteriorating conditions.

This is a really big week for the grain markets. On Thursday morning, USDA will release two potentially trend-setting reports for the grain markets. Traders will once again be focused on the June Acreage Report. With slow plantings this spring, traders expect total corn and soybean plantings to be lower that estimated earlier this year. For corn, traders expect total plantings to be estimated at 90.63 million acres, down slightly from USDA’s June projection of 90.7 million, but well below the March intentions of 92.2 million acres. For soybeans, traders expect total plantings to be estimated at 76.49 million acres, below planting intentions of 76.6 million acres.

While the markets will focus on the acreage update, don’t be surprised if the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report once again has a bigger impact that the acreage update. A year-ago this week, it was the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that started the rally to all-time highs in the corn market.

Also in Washington this week, President Obama will meet separately today with Senate leaders from both parties to try to hammer out details to an increase in the debt limit along with some budget cutting strategies. And the Senate Ag panel will hold a hearing tomorrow on the condition of the U.S. livestock industry.

Friday afternoon’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report showed a slightly bigger-than-expected inventory of market hogs. Once again, gains in efficiency in the farrowing house offset the impact of reduced farrowings. Look for lean hog futures to be under pressure after the quarterly inventory update.

Overnight, corn futures were mostly 5 to 8 cents lower; soybeans were 2 to 5 cents lower and wheat was mostly 8 to 11 cents lower. Those will be the opening calls for today’s grain trade.

That’s your Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.

June 20 Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call

Jun 20, 2011

Chip Flory

Every Monday morning, Pro Farmer editors record the "Monday Morning Wake Up Call." It's a recorded message available by clicking here.
 

But... if you'd rather read the report instead of listening, each Monday morning I'll update the copy from the call here to help set your agenda of key issues that will be impacting the grain and livestock markets in the week ahead.

Monday Morning Wake Up Call

Good morning ... this is the June 20th edition of the Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.

It’s raining in northeast Iowa this morning and the weather forecast calls for hefty rains over the next few days across the Plains and Corn Belt. That will stall winter wheat harvest, as well as late soybean plantings in the eastern Belt this week. And while traders generally have a “rain makes grain” attitude, saturated soils in some key areas are very likely starting to trim 2011 corn yield potential.

However, the trend in the corn market is down and speculators still hold a huge long position in July futures. Those positions will either be liquidated or rolled in the next several days. That points to more pressure on nearby corn futures this week.

The outside markets are also working against grain futures this morning. Greece and its debt issues are dominating the financial markets, which is pressuring the euro – which is in turn supporting the U.S. dollar.

USDA delivered a very bullish Cattle on Feed Report last week with slower-than-expected Placements and quicker-than-expected Marketings resulting in fewer-than-expected cattle on feed as of June 1. While the report should help support cash cattle and live cattle futures this week, it should also be signal of slower feed use in the second half of 2011.

While USDA’s June Acreage Report is still more than a week away, anticipation of new official planted acreage estimates for corn, soybeans and spring wheat will begin to dominate trade talk by the end of the week.

In Washington this week, lawmakers are still digesting the impact of last week’s Senate vote to eliminate the ethanol blenders’ tax credit and the import duty – ethanol supporters this week will look for ways to redirect lost funds for ethanol supports to other pro-ethanol areas... like building up the infrastructure to handle more of the fuel.

Also, lawmakers might have to answer to Brazil this week. Last week, the House voted to stop payments awarded to Brazil over a WTO cotton dispute. This week, don’t be surprised if Brazil starts tossing around ideas of restricting imports of some U.S. goods in retaliation.

That’s your Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.

June 13 PF Monday Morning Wake Up Call

Jun 13, 2011

Chip Flory

Every Monday morning, Pro Farmer editors record the "Monday Morning Wake Up Call." It's a recorded message available by clicking here.
 

But... if you'd rather read the report instead of listening, each Monday morning I'll update the copy from the call here to help set your agenda of key issues that will be impacting the grain and livestock markets in the week ahead.

Monday Morning Wake Up Call

Good morning ... this is the June 13th edition of the Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.

Another week of above-normal rains are expected across the Corn Belt with the heaviest rains expected in the northern Plains. Below normal temps are also expected in roughly the western half of the country, including the western Corn Belt. Above-normal temps are expected across much of the eastern Corn Belt this week.

There are some wide-ranging estimates of how many intended spring wheat and durum acres will go unplanted this year. The scary part is the lowest of the estimates is at 800,000 acres combined. Given the tight supplies of high-quality milling wheat in the country, losing 800,000 acres of spring wheat potential is too much, which should continue to limit selling interest in wheat futures.

Also limiting selling interest in wheat should be the premium the corn market currently holds to the Chicago wheat market. The corn-wheat price relationship should be encouraging more livestock producers to make a switch to wheat-based feed rations, which should limit selling interest in wheat.

One of the features in last week’s Supply & Demand report were the impressive increases in USDA’s estimates of Chinese corn and feed grain demand. It’s been thought USDA was behind the curve on consumption growth, but Chinese officials this weekend warned USDA’s usage increase is too aggressive. Now remember how China plays this game... if the country is saying estimates of grain and soybean demand in the country are too aggressive, they’re probably getting ready to buy more right now.

Busy week in Washington for agriculture – tomorrow, the Senate will consider the amendment from Republican Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma that would immediately end the ethanol blenders tax credit and the ethanol import duty. Look for ethanol proponents to offer an amendment in the Economic Development Administration reauthorization plan to counter the Coburn amendment.

Overnight, old-crop corn traded firm with new-crop corn modestly lower. Soybean futures were mostly 2 ½ to 5 cents lower and wheat was steady to 4 ¼ cents higher. Those will be the opening calls for the grain markets this morning.  

That’s your Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

Receive the latest news, information and commentary customized for you. Sign up to receive Dairy Today's eUpdate today!

 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions