Is Corn Planting Progress to Remain Bullish?
Apr 24, 2014
Corn demand remains strong and the trade is wanting more assurance that the US crop is going to get in the ground in a timely fashion. There is talk throughout the trade that US producers in many locations will remain sidelined, some saying for another 5-10 days if the forecasts hold true. From my perspective we have made huge progress this week and conditions across the country as a "whole" are very good. But in the markets as in life..."the squeaky wheel gets the grease." Nobody is talking much about the guys who have already gotten their entire crop planted. I also don't hear or see much being written about the increase in corn acres. I have talked to a lot of farmers who are seeing fields that were supposedly NOT going to be planted to corn, in fact now being planted to corn. My contention remains... the overall pace of planting (as a ratio) is only going to improve from here and the total number of corn acres is going higher not lower. Moral of the story, from a purely fundamental perspective one would have to argue corn prices are due for a setback in the days ahead as the market comes to the conclusion that the crop is going in the ground and that more acres are being planted than originally anticipated...if it were only that easy. Unfortunately, much larger forces (Algo's, Quant's, Hedge & Index Funds, etc...) now influences the trade, trying to predict how they will rotate, maneuver, interpret and view the entire landscape is a much more difficult task. As a producer I am going to remain 50% sold/priced in new-crop, looking to make another sale vs. the DEC14contract up near $5.25. Remain patient and "listen" to the market... CLICK HERE for my daily report....
Planting Progress: Since I am a "visual" type guy, I had the office put together an info graphic of the USDA's planting pace. This is as of this past Sunday but I will be updating it each of the next several weeks so we can more easily see what is taking place. As you can see there are many states in the "red" or behind the average 5-year planting pace, but if you look at the specifics of each state I am thinking we start to more rapidly close the gap. There is already talk floating around that both Iowa and Illinois have made HUGE strides this week, and I still think we could get close to 45% planted by May 4th.