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February 2013 Archive for EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 2/28/13

Feb 28, 2013

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Grains and oilseeds closed higher on Thursday after higher sales were reported for old crop soybeans.  May soybeans closed 12 ¾ cents higher at $14.52 ¼, May corn 8 ¼ cents higher at $7.03 ½, and May wheat up 2 ½ cents at $7.14 ½.

Old crop soybean sales were at 689,000 MTs, far more than we need to average to meet the USDA export estimate of 1.345 million bushels.  At this point in the year we already have contracted 1.2713 billion and have shipped 1.101 billion!  That means we need to sell at a pace of only 2.6 million bushels per week (70,761.6 MTs) to meet the objective set.  To put it in perspective, look at last year.  From this week in 2012 until September 1st 2012 we sold another 362.8 million bushels of soybeans!  Obviously we can’t afford to do that this year or we would run out of soybeans.  I think the main point to take away from these staggering numbers is that volatility could soar over the next 4 months as Brazil figures out its logistical problems and we get an overall assessment of South American production and availability.   With the soybean volatility index running at only 20.63, it looks relatively cheap for buying options for upside potential against sales.  Note how far below the 200 day moving average the index is as well as from last summer!

Soybean Volatility Index Soybean Volatility Index

Old crop corn was also rebounding today with the May contract nearing its major moving averages again after trading in a lull for most of February.

May 2013 Corn SpreadMay Corn

What is especially important is how cheap wheat has been getting to corn.  March wheat is back to a large discount to March corn. With wheat comparatively cheap we have to assume that wheat feeding will increase substantially in the US again.  Just take last year for example.  Wheat was trading in-and-out of a discount to corn which helped propel wheat feeding by 213% from the year before!  For the 2012/2013 marketing year we ended up feeding 350 million bushels of wheat. Since wheat has its own tight balance sheet and we are once again competitive on the world market, we may see wheat supported as long as old crop corn doesn’t slip lower again.

Corn-Wheat Spread in 2012Corn-Wheat Spread in 2012

May Corn-May Wheat 2013May Corn-May Wheat 2013

We are done setting the spring insurance prices for Federal Crop Insurance and the RMA should release the official numbers tomorrow.  We have an average of $5.65 for corn and $12.87 for soybeans, very similar to last year.  For now we are staying with our current sale recommendations but with the insurance guarantee it may change how much downside coverage you need.  If you would like to get the EHedger grain letter full time, please sign up using the link at the top of the page. Tomorrow we have Informa’s pre-WASDE estimates and we also have the first trading day of the month. Happy Friday and have a great weekend!

EHedger  |  866.433.4371

Premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

EHedger is a premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

 

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 2/25/13

Feb 25, 2013

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CBOT markets were mixed on Monday with March wheat and soybeans closing with double digit losses.  March corn was able to close 3 ¼ cents higher at $6.93 despite march wheat closing 15 ¾ cents lower.  This daily change puts the premium in wheat at only 5 ¾ cents over the price of corn!

With wheat comparatively cheap to corn we are back in that scenario where should start to see more wheat fed in the US and around the world.  We have started to see some decent export interest as well with February sales especially strong after US prices were low enough to compete in the world market.  Even with the stronger demand wheat continues to make new lows for the move.  Granted the drought conditions have eased a bit after the most recent storms brought decent amounts of moisture to the winter wheat areas.  We will have to watch wheat conditions as it comes out of dormancy as well as any changes to demand for direction.

New crop corn also made a new low for the move at $5.50.  Many are worried that this is a major level which we could see some stops triggered below.  Oddly enough we were making a similar move at this exact time last year while at almost the exact same spring price for Federal Crop Insurance.  Looking at a chart of December corn on February 24th of 2012, we made our short term low at $5.49 ¼ before going back to test $5.75 a few more times.  By May 11th, we were trading all the way down to $4.99.  What would price have done if we did not have the drought of 2012?  Flash forward to today’s situation but take into account the strong Brazilian corn crop soon available on the world market and the potential for 98 million acres or more of corn in the US.  It takes a long time to restore feed demand and with many ethanol plants idle we have to wonder how quick they will be to start operations again once ethanol becomes widely profitable again?

We know there is still a long way to go in the growing season with obstacles to overcome such as the dry conditions and tight old crop supply.  The point is to illustrate how corn traded last year before we had any real weather problems and how that may relate to this year’s situation.

DECEMBER 2012 CORN December Corn

First notice for March Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Meal, and Soyoil is on Thursday.  With strong bullspreading and interior basis levels for nearby corn and soybeans it could be an interesting delivery period.  Last year the May-July spread skyrocketed to +45 cents over with similar basis levels.  If there are any surprises that give us a rally it may be a good opportunity to price some more grain.  Have a great week!

 CORN STRATEGY

Currently our official recommendations call for 30% protection in cash sales, HTAs, or futures (average price of $6.40) and 20% protection in long $5.50 December puts and short $7.00 December calls.  We would like to BUY BACK those $7.00 calls and SELL December $4.50 puts for EVEN MONEY.  What this does is remove the marginal risk of the trade (the short $7.00 calls) without spending additional premium.  It does however limit the amount of protection you will get on those $5.50 puts capping their protection to not below $4.50.  It is important to note that this trade is for those who already have the spread on AND have a healthy level of sales and insurance coverage.  To go over this strategy in AgYield, please contact us today.

EHedger  |  866.433.4371

Premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

EHedger is a premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.


 

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 2/22/13

Feb 22, 2013

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Soybeans closed sharply lower Friday erasing some of the week’s gains.  March corn closed $14.61 ¼ which was 26 ½ cents lower on the day but still 36 ¾ cents higher for the week!  Today’s range was especially volatile since we traded all the way up to $15.16 ½ last night before closing below yesterday’s lows.  You can see the reversal on the chart below closing just above the 200 day moving average.

March Soybeans

March Soybeans

Why the turnaround in soybeans?  The rumors of old crop soybean sales to China were floating all week and today’s sale announcements were disappointing.  Weekly old crop soybean sales were negative 119,500 and the 8:00 USDA sale announcements showed only 1 cargo of old crop sold.  They did announce 350,000 MTs of new crop soybeans sold but the market was not impressed.  Front month soybeans suffered the largest setbacks but also had the largest gains on the week.

Wheat and corn sales both topped expectations as the cheaper prices are starting to attract new business.  Still the grains had a hard time holding support especially when soybeans are trading 28 lower on the day.  It is important to note that today’s Commitment of Traders Report revealed the "managed money" reduced their net long positions by 61,060 contracts, 37,300 of which were fresh shorts entering the market!  They reduced their net long position by 7,215 contracts.  These numbers are as of Tuesday, February 19th.

The corn-wheat spread settled at a new high of -24 ¾ cents which may continue to lock corn to the price of wheat as wheat becomes more competitive for feed.  We are starting to see some decent export sales again now that the price of wheat is making new lows and US wheat is competitive in the world market again.

March Corn – March Wheat Spread

 March Corn - March Wheat Spread

Meanwhile domestic basis continues to soar for corn and soybeans with supplies remaining tight and low producer selling.  Typically we see a seasonal high for corn in April but as we know these past 5 years have been anything but typical.  Last year during the spring time frame we saw a sharp rally in corn basis but it did not translate to a meaningful flat price rally.  In early 2012, prices remained in a large range until the drought started the bull market in late June (see chart).

Weekly Front Month Corn Winter/Spring of 2012

 Weekly Front Month Corn Winter/Spring 2012

So far the low end of the range for March 2013 corn has been $6.78 and the high end was $7.46 ¼.  Look for $6.78 to be the next major support level.

Daily March Corn 2013

 Daily March Corn 2013

Thursday the USDA released their Ag Outlook which has some traders scratching their heads.  They have total acres plus CRP down 4.6 million from last year despite the higher early 2013 prices (so far).  Many private estimates are coming in with higher acreage but they are discounting trendline yield due to the drought.  We are expecting corn and soybean acres to be a few million above the Ag Outlook estimate… EACH.  The USDA still has corn production pegged at a record and they are estimating a fall price of only $4.80 per bushel.  For now we remain bearish new crop corn and soybeans and want to stay with the current EHedger recommendations.

CORN STRATEGY

Currently our official recommendations call for 30% protection in cash sales, HTAs, or futures (average price of $6.40) and 20% protection in long $5.50 December puts and short $7.00 December calls.  We would like to BUY BACK those $7.00 calls and SELL December $4.50 puts for EVEN MONEY.  What this does is remove the marginal risk of the trade (the short $7.00 calls) without spending additional premium.  It does however limit the amount of protection you will get on those $5.50 puts capping their protection to not below $4.50.  It is important to note that this trade is for those who already have the spread on AND have a healthy level of sales and insurance coverage.  To go over this strategy in AgYield, please contact us today.

 

 

EHedger  |  866.433.4371

Premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

EHedger is a premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

 

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 2/20/13

Feb 20, 2013

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Corn, wheat, and soybeans all closed higher despite the large price breaks in the stock market, gold, and crude oil.  Generally "risk-off" trades in the outside markets can translate to the similar weakness in the grain markets, but today they were able to trade independently.

Soybean strength continues to dominate the ag markets which is tied to short term supply concerns in the US.  The recent old crop soybean sales to China, harvest and logistical delays in Brazil, and inadequate rains in Argentina are all linked to the strength in March beans.   There were more rumors floating in the market today that China secured a large amount of old crop beans so we will have to continue to watch the morning announcements for confirmation.

It was a little surprising to see November soybeans keeping pace today closing 12 ¼ cents higher at $12.87.  November beans were able to test the 200 day moving average of $12.90.  It may be due to the fact that we are coming off the low end of the range.

November Soybean Chart

Egypt’s GASC announced the purchase of 1 cargo of US SRW wheat which was a little less than expected given how competitively priced US wheat is currently.  Wheat managed to close higher after trading lower during the morning session.  Yesterday Texas released their crop conditions.  They still have wheat pegged at only 14% good-to-excellent.  The recent precipitation has certainly relieved some of the dryness concerns but we still have a long way to go to significantly improve the overall drought conditions plaguing the wheat country.

Corn and Chicago Wheat are trading within 40 cents of each other which if that spread stays here for long we could see a good amount of wheat being fed.  For now the two products will likely have a close correlation in our opinion.

Corn is still in the battle of trying to make sure we ration our tight old crop supply while still pricing in the abundant new crop currently forecasted.  The domestic cash market remains strong and may be the source of today’s strength in old crop corn. Supply and Demand table estimates for new crop corn continue to report large carryout levels.  We have the Annual Outlook on the 21st and 22nd.  Although these numbers are important they aren’t always major market movers.  For now we want to stay with the current EHedger producer recommendations.  Next directional indicator may come from tomorrow’s EIA ethanol data which was delayed one day due to the Holiday.  Export sales will be released on Friday.

CORN STRATEGY

Currently our official recommendations call for 30% protection in cash sales, HTAs, or futures (average price of $6.40) and 20% protection in long $5.50 December puts and short $7.00 December calls.  We would like to BUY BACK those $7.00 calls and SELL December $4.50 puts for EVEN MONEY.  What this does is remove the marginal risk of the trade (the short $7.00 calls) without spending additional premium.  It does however limit the amount of protection you will get on those $5.50 puts capping their protection to not below $4.50.  It is important to note that this trade is for those who already have the spread on AND have a healthy level of sales and insurance coverage.  To go over this strategy in AgYield, please contact us today.

EHedger  |  866.433.4371

Premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

EHedger is a premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 2/19/13

Feb 19, 2013

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Corn and wheat closed lower while soybeans were sharply higher.  March beans closed 45 ¾ cents higher at $14.70 ¼.  March wheat was down 10 cents at $7.32 ¼ and March corn down 3 ½ cents at $6.95 ¼.

The major intra-commodity spreading between the grains and oilseeds could be for a number of reasons.  China is just coming off a holiday week and we already are seeing some interest for US beans.  The USDA reported the sale of 120,000 MTs on this morning’s 8 am announcements.  The rains in Argentina over the weekend were disappointing which has some worried about production reductions again.  Also Brazil harvest delays and labor unrests are starting to create some anxiety that their export shipments will not be loaded on time.  These are the market headlines but there might be more under the surface that is not public yet.  We will update you with any fresh news to explain today’s soybean strength.

Export inspections were strong for soybeans and wheat but slightly below expectations for corn.  Reports of strong interior corn basis still seem to be lackluster for futures strength.  Corn is still in the battle of trying to make sure we ration our tight old crop supply while still pricing in the abundant new crop that is currently forecasted.  Supply and Demand table estimates for new crop corn continue to forecast large carryout levels.  We have the Annual Outlook on the 21st and 22nd.  Although these numbers are important they aren’t always major market movers.  For now we want to stay with the current EHedger producer recommendations.

CORN STRATEGY

Currently our official recommendations call for 30% protection in cash sales, HTAs, or futures (average price of $6.40) and 20% protection in long $5.50 December puts and short $7.00 December calls.  We would like to BUY BACK those $7.00 calls and SELL December $4.50 puts for EVEN MONEY.  What this does is remove the marginal risk of the trade (the short $7.00 calls) without spending additional premium.  It does however limit the amount of protection you will get on those $5.50 puts capping their protection to not below $4.50.  It is important to note that this trade is for those who already have the spread on AND have a healthy level of sales and insurance coverage.  To go over this strategy in AgYield, please contact us today.

If you would like expanded twice daily EHedger Grain Commentaries with hedge recommendations emailed to you, visit ehedger.com and subscribe.

 

EHedger  |  866.433.4371

Premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

EHedger is a premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

 

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 2/12/13

Feb 12, 2013

Old crop corn and soybeans closed lower on Tuesday while new crop prices finished higher.  The bearspreading may be a sign of fund liquidation.  Barclays was rumored to be pulling out of some of its commodity holdings.  They announced today that they would be scaling back some of their programs by cutting some 3700 jobs.  Can we expect additional weakness from the withdrawal of any commodity positions held by the British Bank?  Time will tell, but this is one more short term risk to be aware of.

Livestock prices have also taken a hit from liquidation which appears to be turning political.  The USDA announced that the sequestration could result in the furlough of the USDA meat inspector.  Feeder cattle traded limit down at one point during the trading session but finished off their lows.

Yesterday’s open interest was sharply higher for corn, up by 8,691 contracts while soybean open interest was down by 328 contracts.  With open interest higher over the past few days for corn and soybeans it appears that new shorts are entering the market.  We will have more detailed information when the Commitment of Traders report is released on Friday.  For now we want to remain with our current hedge recommendations.

USDA REPORT COMMENTARY

Was the USDA report really that bearish?  The markets obviously have not reacted positively ever since the release of the WASDE estimates.  Looking at the US numbers, the market analysts were estimating corn carryout to rise to 618 million bushels which was less than the actual Feb USDA estimate of 632.  By itself this number was a little bearish for corn but then again, 632 million bushels is still a very tight carryout in our modern demand market.  Soybean carryout was estimated by analysts to be 129 million bushels, but the USDA has it at 125.  Again, 125 million bushels is a very tight carryout in the US.  The analyst carryout had wheat pegged at 727 million but the USDA estimated 691 million which is also friendly to price action.

So why the selloff?  Traditionally the USDA has been rather conservative when lowering foreign production estimates during February. The fact that they only lowered Argentine corn and soybean production by 1 million metric tons each could have led to the disappointment which triggered the market sell action.  We are seeing open interest increase suggesting new shorts entering the market rather than long liquidation.  Another thing to remember is that as time goes on, the tight world supply will turn into a more abundant situation. With a large Brazilian crop and large acres expected in the US, those back month contracts may continue to see hedge pressure hold back price.

The US Wheat estimates were rather supportive for price action but the weakness in corn and soybeans has kept a lid on prices.  Wheat is now making new lows for the move again, surpassing the January lows.  We still have to keep in mind that we are expected to come out of dormancy with the worst conditions on record.  Wheat prices may be more tied to corn now that they are nearing competitive levels for feed in the US but we will continue to monitor growing conditions for any weather related strength.

CORN STRATEGY UPDATE

Currently our official recommendations call for 30% protection in cash sales, HTAs, or futures (average price of $6.40) and 20% protection in long $5.50 December puts and short $7.00 December calls.  We would like to BUY BACK those $7.00 calls and SELL December $4.50 puts for EVEN MONEY.  What this does is remove the marginal risk of the trade (the short $7.00 calls) without spending additional premium.  It does however limit the amount of protection you will get on those $5.50 puts capping their protection to not below $4.50.  It is important to note that this trade is for those who already have the spread on AND have a healthy level of sales and insurance coverage.  To go over this strategy in AgYield, please contact us today.  Have a great week!

FEBRUARY WASDE ESTIMATES

US Carryout

Feb USDA

Estimate

Jan USDA

Corn

632

618

602

Wheat

691

727

716

Soybeans

125

129

135

       

South American Production

Feb USDA

Jan USDA

Change

Argentina - Soybeans

53

54

-1

Argentina - Corn

27

28

-1

Brazil - Soybeans

83.5

82.5

1

Brazil - Corn

72.5

71

1.5

  

If you would like expanded twice daily EHedger Grain Commentaries with hedge recommendations emailed to you, visit ehedger.com and subscribe.

 

EHedger  |  866.433.4371

Premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

EHedger is a premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

 

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 2-4-13

Feb 04, 2013

It was another mixed day at the Chicago Board of Trade with grains lower and the soy complex higher.

 

Rain amounts in Argentina were a little disappointing over the weekend resulting in a stronger open on Sunday night’s trading session.  South American weather concerns are still providing the leading support for soybeans.  Corn and wheat futures were stronger for the overnight and morning sessions but found heavy resistance before the closing bell.

 

March Soybean

 

Wheat seemed to lead the grain markets lower which may be due to the very strong US Dollar Index on Monday.  The stronger dollar could eventually threaten our competitive pricing on the world market.  Beneficial rains had been forecasted to relieve some of the driest areas of the HRW Country this upcoming weekend but much of that precipitation was REMOVED from today’s midday models.  Normally this would be considered supportive for wheat.  We feel that wheat has the best fundamentals for supportive market action because of the current drought conditions affecting much of the HRW country.  It won’t be long before wheat comes out of dormancy and without proper moisture in the near term we feel there needs to be more weather premium built into this market.

 

March Wheat

 

On Friday the 8th we will see the next USDA Supply and Demand report.  Changes to demand have not been very dramatic so we don’t expect to see too many changes to their US estimates from January.  We may see another increase in their feed estimate for corn and a slight increase to soybean crush, but really we don’t have much to give on the balance sheet.  The bigger focus will be on the South American production estimates.  Many analysts are calling for the Argentine corn production to drop to 25-26 million mts (from 28.0 currently) while increasing Brazilian corn slightly.  I am also seeing estimates reducing Argentine soybeans by 1-2 million mts while increasing Brazilian soybeans by less than 1 million MTs (from January USDA estimates).  We will report the official analyst estimates from the polls when they become available this week.

 

NEW CROP HEDGING TIPS

For new crop corn, cost of production estimates are running at record highs!  The market is planning on a large amount of acres.  Last year we steadily traded lower into the June timeframe before a weather market came to lift price.  We can't rule out the same thing happening this year.  For those of you who heavily rely on the revenue protection of crop insurance as a hedge against declining prices, your risk will be going down as long as the average price of corn (and/or beans) stay strong during the month of February when crop insurance prices are set.  We still recommend you having the additional protection of 30% in sales and 20% in the put/call strategy.  As we get through February we will re-evaluate using AgYield each individual's situation to see if this is too much or not enough coverage based on the spring federal crop insurance price and your personal cost of doing business.

 

For producers that do not heavily rely on the revenue protection of federal crop insurance (example: fields that do not have an APH that is representative of your expected yield because the history is not built up yet, OR those who take policies that have coverage levels of less than 80%):  We want to make sure you have adequate coverage going forward.  Corn volatility on December puts is running between 26 – 28% which isn't bad.  Since you will not have a great "synthetic put" from the crop insurance, we recommend having another form of price protection coverage.  If it is irrigated ground and you are comfortable with the yields, we think selling a healthy combination of cash and futures* may be the way to go.  If you are coming off of a poor growing year and are worried about what you will have this year look at using straight puts to get that "near-the-money" price protection for December corn and November soybeans.  I don't always advocate using long options with that much time value but it is basically another form of insurance on your price risk without having to dedicate bushels.  If you are comfortable with margin risk please contact your EHedger broker because there are other opportunities that may look better using AgYield, including selling in the cash market and then selling puts and buying calls*.

 

For direction the market will likely continue to hang onto any changes in the South American forecast.  Please call us if you have any questions or email info@ehedger.com . Have a great week!

 

*Strategies discussed involve margin requirements and may not be suitable for everyone.  Please carefully consider your own situation and risk tolerance before getting involved.

If you would like EHedger's Grain Commentaries emailed to you, Sign Up Here.

 

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

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