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EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

E Hedger Closing Grain Commentary 2/22/10

Feb 23, 2010
Market Settlement Change Low High 
March corn 371 1/2 11 1/2 360 376.75
March wheat 501 1/4 11 1/2 485.25 504
March beans 961 1/2 16 1/2 944.25 962.5
March soymeal 281.70 5.30 276.4 282.5
March soyoil 38.83 0.31 38.52 38.94
Apr live cattle 93.225 -0.075 92.90 93.38
Apr lean hogs 70.300 0.65 70.13 70.8
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed higher to start the week. In the absence of any real news the chatter has turned to slightly bullish information. There is talk about rains delaying harvest in parts of Argentina and Brazil. Also, that snowfall and winter conditions will lead to flooding in the upper Midwest this spring. Add in the lower dollar and strong Friday finish it led to a high range close in the grain markets. For the most part today’s action was due to short covering and technical buying. The commitment of traders report has continued to show funds holding large short positions in soybeans and wheat. We find today’s gains encouraging in that corn and soybeans are approaching price levels from the January report, such as $4.10-4.20 December 2010 corn and $9.50-9.80 November 2010 soybeans. For many producers these are profitable levels. 
There was also talk today about the USDA re-survey. The late harvested crop is thought to be smaller than what the USDA currently has written down. Until these numbers are released the short side of the market may remain cautious. However, regardless of the findings there are bushels that will have to be moved as temperatures heat up and quality becomes a larger concern. This will put pressure on the corn market on further advances. 
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COMMENTS (2 Comments)

I just hope we havent been way off for a number of years on crop production. Many complaining bushels just arent there. Did farmers bins shrink over winter? For Gods sake when you call in a yield for the survey make sure youve taken everything into account. Like many have said before the numbers are at Federal crop agencies. All you have to do is go and get them. This is all Im asking as a producer. Dont harvest numbers you think are right, do whats right and harvest the exact numbers. It is fair for everybody involved. Please, we all make mistakes sometimes and we all correct them at some point.
1:56 PM Feb 25th
To say the 2009 corn crop is underestimated is an understatement. When did the corn/ethanol price quit moving up in correlation with the oil price? Something change there that I missed? I would think there would way more talk about the fact that there will not be an early spring and that will take the top off the 2010 corn crop. Maybe I just don't have the insight that the trader's do.
I just go by what I see.
12:33 PM Feb 24th

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