Grains Close Lower; We Continue to Watch South American Weather
Jan 29, 2009
SETTLEMENTS
|
Mar 09 Corn
|
381 ¾
|
-2 ¾
|
|
May 09 Corn
|
393
|
-2 ½
|
|
Mar 09 Beans
|
970 ½
|
-12
|
|
May 09 Beans
|
977 ¾
|
-12 ¼
|
|
Mar 09 Wheat
|
578
|
-17 ¼
|
|
May 09 Wheat
|
591
|
-17
|
|
Mar KC Wheat
|
608
|
-18
|
|
Mar Min Wheat
|
657 ¾
|
-15 ½
|
|
Mar 09 Meal
|
308.7
|
-2.8
|
|
Mar 09 Bean Oil
|
32.37
|
-0.54
|
The Bottom Line
1) Recent rains have helped Argentine crop; market waiting to see if additional rains develop next week.
2) Conditions in Brazil continue to improve
3) Export sales were solid for corn and beans and disappointing for wheat.
4) The census crush came in as expected.
5) The egg set placement was down over 7% from a year ago.
4) Domestic demand remains weak for corn, wheat and soy products.
All three grains closed lower on the day. The market’s volume continues to be light. This morning’s export sales were over a million tons for corn for the second week in a row. However, US corn sales are extremely far behind and two weeks of good sales is no reason to get bullish at these levels. China was on holiday this week; therefore it was no surprise that bean sales were off. The bean markets main focus continues to be the weather in Argentina. The past four days we have seen showers in the region but the system forecasted for Sunday and Monday appear to be what everyone is watching. The models continue to be in disagreement as to the totals and coverage of this system. It appears the market may wait until next week to see what kind of rains the system actually brings before it reacts. Even if the rains are disappointing we still have seen conditions improve in Argentina over the past week and there is another system forecasted for late next week. The Wheat market struggled throughout the session. The short covering rally yesterday made the wheat vulnerable to a sell off. In addition, this morning’s weak sales number added to selling pressure.
Go to www.ehedger.com for a free two-week trial that includes our hedging recommendations, trades of the day, market recaps or to simply open an account.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.
