Jul 12, 2014
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December 2013 Archive for Market Watch

RSS By: Alan Brugler, AgWeb.com

Alan Brugler is the President of Brugler Marketing & Management, and the primary analyst and advisor.

Dashing Through The Snow

Dec 27, 2013

 Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

December 27, 2013

Dashing Through the Snow

 

Our theme this week is appropriate to our audience in the east, which saw some winter weather this week. The line comes from the song Jingle Bells, which begins with "Dashing through the snow, on a one horse open sleigh", and in the second verse ends with the participants flipping over the sleigh in which they are riding after it hits a snow drift. Some of the ag markets had that high speed sliding aspect to them this week, with sharp moves in thin market conditions. Wheat has been in a snow drift so long that any would be bulls are frozen solid! 

March corn futures were down 6 cents this week, with all of the selling coming on Thursday. That drop offset 75% of the gain from the previous week. Demand is still strong as low prices continue to work to cure low prices. USDA reported larger than expected weekly corn export sales of over 1.9 MMT. China had rejected 545,000 metric tons (21 million bushels) of U.S. corn as of mid-December. The export sales report confirmed 418,900 MT of that had been re-directed to other buyers, with another 60,000 adjusted in the previous week report. Sales to other countries are still quite strong. US corn export commitments are 78% of the upwardly revised December USDA forecast for the year. The 5 year average commitment for this time would be 55%. Ethanol stocks did rise 100,000 barrels last week, and production dropped by about 2,000 barrels per day due to logistical issues.

Soybean futures were down 0.6% this week. Weekly US export sales were much improved at 788,300 MT. Total US export Commitments are now at 99% of the USDA forecast for the entire year, with more than 8 months remaining. Last year 84% of the sales for the year were booked at this time and that was a front loaded year like this one. Soybean meal export sales slowed, but 63% of the projected sales for the year are already booked. The average pace would be 55%. Brazilian producers are trying to hit the market inverse by artificially defoliating beans and getting the crop closer to harvest ready in some more advanced maturity areas. There is chatter about loading at least one or two vessels with new crop in mid-January. On the other hand, 15% of the acreage in Rio Grande do Sul has yet to be planted. That is also the case in the Northeastern states.

Wheat futures lost another 0.7 to 2.4% this week, but did manage a higher daily close on Friday in Chicago.  Total US export commitments are still a larger % of the USDA forecast than usual for this date, currently at 81% vs. the five year average of 75%.  Weekly wheat export sales through December 19 were similar to the previous week at 656,100 MT including 60,000 MT for 2014/15 shipment. Brazil continues to buy US wheat to offset missing Argentine supplies.

Cotton futures rose 1.17% this week. Projected US ending stocks are still an adequate 3 million bales. China is still seen holding more than half of the world surplus. Economic indicators have picked up in several areas, encouraging speculative fund buying. Weekly cotton export sales for the week ending December 19 increased from the previous week, with upland bookings at 242,300 running bales including 20,700 RB for 2014/15 shipment. Turkey was again the largest buyer, with China in second position. US Export commitments as a % of total exports (for upland cotton) are now at 73%, lagging the 5 year average of 75%. 

 

12/27/2013

           

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

12/06/13

12/13/13

12/20/13

12/27/13

Change

% Change

Mar

Corn

$4.34

$4.25

$4.33

$4.28

($0.06)

-1.33%

Mar

CBOT Wheat

$6.51

$6.28

$6.14

$6.09

($0.04)

-0.73%

Mar

KCBT Wheat

$6.95

$6.72

$6.57

$6.44

($0.13)

-1.98%

Mar

MGEX Wheat

$6.63

$6.60

$6.51

$6.35

($0.16)

-2.42%

Jan

Soybeans

$13.26

$13.28

$13.39

$13.32

($0.08)

-0.56%

Jan

Soybean Meal

$427.00

$432.60

$446.60

$445.70

($0.90)

-0.20%

Jan

Soybean Oil

$40.49

$39.83

$39.44

$39.02

($0.42)

-1.06%

Dec

Live Cattle

$131.43

$131.88

$132.53

$133.85

$1.32

1.00%

Jan

Feeder Cattle

$164.48

$167.08

$166.98

$167.00

$0.03

0.01%

Feb

Lean Hogs

$89.00

$87.17

$86.25

$85.65

($0.60)

-0.70%

Mar

Cotton

$80.41

$83.22

$83.15

$84.12

$0.97

1.17%

Mar

Oats

$3.28

$3.40

$3.49

$3.56

$0.07

2.08%

Jan

Rice

$15.55

$15.55

$15.50

$15.45

($0.05)

-0.32%

 

Cattle futures rallied another $1.32 this week to add on to gains from each of the previous two weeks. Feeders were up 0.1%. Cash cattle traded $4-6 higher on Friday than they had the previous week. Packers needed cattle and had to pay up to get the few that were available. Cash cattle traded as high as $136 and $214 (beef) in the North. Wholesale beef prices were up 0.1% on a Fri/Fri basis in the Choice, and up 1.5% in the Select. Packer margins would appear to be negative if they can’t move those values higher next week. The lower production because of the holidays might give them a little leverage. Weekly slaughter was down 9.9% from the same week in 2012. Year to date beef production is down 1.4%.  Estimated carcass weights are running 1-2 pounds above last year’s actual of 805 pounds. USDA reported weekly beef export sales of 13,200 MT, up from both of the two previous weeks.  

Hog futures were down 0.7%, continuing a month long slide. Pork production YTD is down 0.7% from year ago. Pork production this week was 7.5% larger than the same week in 2012. Estimated slaughter totaled 1.843 million head, up 4.52% from last year but down 21.5% from the previous week because of the holiday.  Higher carcass weights (+6# per head vs. last year) are offsetting the smaller head count. USDA reported weekly pork export sales were much improved at 11,300 MT. After the close on Friday, USDA confirmed the shrinkage of the market hog supply, showing 99.4% of what we had in December a year ago. More surprisingly, they showed kept for breeding at only 98.9% of last year despite data suggesting both gilt retention and smaller sow slaughter. Farrowing intentions for Dec-March were up 1.3% from the year ago actual figure.

 Market Watch

This past week was choppy, due to the mid-week holiday. Schedules will be interrupted this coming week as well, with a short trading day on Tuesday and the New Years Day holiday on Wednesday. USDA will update Export Inspections on Monday. Weekly export sales will be delayed until Friday because of the holiday on Wednesday. The market will begin the week dealing with any surprise futures positions inherited during the January options expiration on December 27. Hog traders will also have the fallout from the USDA Hogs and Pigs report. December 31 will mark the expiration of the December cattle futures contract, and delivery notices for January soy complex futures contracts.

Visit our Brugler web site at http://www.bruglermarketing.com, find our iPad app "AgMarket" in the app store, or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

The Brugler Marketing Winter Seminars will be held February 17-18 in Dayton, OH and February 20-21 in Omaha, NE. Check our website for registration information.

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.                  

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

Erratic Gains

Dec 20, 2013

 Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

December 20, 2013

Erratic Gains

 

As we approach year end, producers are making or not making sales based on their tax situation and local bid strength. Spec funds are making or not making sales depending on whether they need to take profits in order to pay marked-to-market taxes on December 31, and are also involved in asset allocation adjustments where they are selling their winners and buying this year’s losers in anticipation of markets that "revert to the mean". This activity has meant erratic moves in commodity prices, depending on what that market has done over the past several months. Strong markets like hogs are seeing some selling, and weak markets like corn are seeing some buying. One would expect the shorts to cash out some wheat positions as well, but with such a strong trend they may want to wait until the last minute.

 

March corn futures were up 8 cents this week, continuing in a narrow 15 cent trading band. Demand is a bright spot as low prices continue to work to cure low prices. Ethanol stocks did rise again, but imports have been zero for the past 11 weeks and elevated domestic production is being absorbed. USDA reported larger than expected weekly corn export sales of 872,300 MT. Those included fresh sales of 124,000 MT to China. China has rejected 545,000 metric tons (21 million bushels) of U.S. corn so far this year in cargoes that contained corn with the MIR162 trait. That 21 million bushels represents 1.4% of projected US exports for the year. That corn is being re-directed to other countries which have already approved the variety. US corn export commitments are 75% of the upwardly revised December USDA forecast for the year. The 5 year average commitment for this time would be 53%. Chicken production continues to expand, with egg sets up 3% and placements up 1% this week. Hog producers are also feeding hogs to historically high weights, requiring more corn.

 

Soybean futures were up 0.87% this week. Weekly US export sales were poor at 495,700 MT, the slowest of the marketing year. This was due to a 576,300 MT cancellation of sales to "unknown destinations". Futures closed higher on Thursday. It is not a bear market when bad news fails to make it move lower. Total US export Commitments are now at 97% of the USDA forecast for the entire year, with more than 8 months remaining. Last year 70% of the sales for the year were booked at this time. Soybean meal export sales slowed, but 62% of the projected sales for the year are already booked. The average pace would be 53%.

 

Wheat futures lost another 1.4 to 2.4% this week, but did finally manage a higher daily close on Friday.  Total US export commitments are still a larger % of the USDA forecast than usual for this date, currently at 79% vs. the five year average of 73%.  Weekly wheat export sales through December 12 were much better than the prior week at 659,100 MT. Low prices cure low prices, as those sales were 47% larger than the 4 week average. The EU has been aggressively approving exports of wheat, with licenses issued YTD at 13.4 MMT vs. 9.1 MMT last year.

 

Cotton futures slipped 0.08% this week, almost a typographical error. March lost 16 points on Friday to flip the week from positive to negative. Projected US ending stocks are still an adequate 3 million bales. China is still seen holding more than half of the world surplus. The US outlook has improved, with the Fed cutting the QE3 program by $10 billion beginning in January. Economic indicators have picked up in several areas. Weekly cotton export sales for the week ending December 12 increased 36% from the previous week, with upland bookings at 236,000 running bales. Turkey was the largest buyer. US Export commitments as a % of total exports (for upland cotton) are now at 70%, lagging the 5 year average of 73%.

 

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

11/29/13

12/06/13

12/13/13

12/20/13

Change

% Change

Mar

Corn

$4.24

$4.34

$4.25

$4.33

$0.08

1.94%

Mar

CBOT Wheat

$6.68

$6.51

$6.28

$6.14

($0.15)

-2.31%

Mar

KCBT Wheat

$7.09

$6.95

$6.72

$6.57

($0.15)

-2.19%

Mar

MGEX Wheat

$6.81

$6.63

$6.60

$6.51

($0.09)

-1.44%

Jan

Soybeans

$13.37

$13.26

$13.28

$13.39

$0.12

0.87%

Jan

Soybean Meal

$436.00

$427.00

$432.60

$446.60

$14.00

3.24%

Jan

Soybean Oil

$40.46

$40.49

$39.83

$39.44

($0.39)

-0.98%

Dec

Live Cattle

$133.48

$131.43

$131.88

$132.53

$0.65

0.49%

Jan

Feeder Cattle

$165.48

$164.48

$167.08

$166.98

($0.10)

-0.06%

Feb

Lean Hogs

$90.57

$89.00

$87.17

$86.25

($0.92)

-1.06%

Mar

Cotton

$79.35

$80.41

$83.22

$83.15

($0.07)

-0.08%

Mar

Oats

$3.31

$3.28

$3.40

$3.49

$0.09

2.57%

Jan

Rice

$15.96

$15.55

$15.55

$15.50

($0.04)

-0.29%

 

 

Cattle futures rallied 65 cents this week to add to the 45 cents from the prior week.  Feeders were down 0.06% due to the rise in feed costs. Cash cattle did fall back about a dollar from the previous week, with reports of $129-130 the south. Wholesale beef prices were down 1.1% on a Fri/Fri basis in the Choice, and up 0.8% in the Select. Weekly slaughter was down 2.1 % from the same week in 2012. Year to date beef production is down 1.2%.  Estimated carcass weights are running 6-7 pounds above last year’s actual of 800 pounds. USDA reported weekly beef export sales of 6,600 MT, a slow down from 11,500 MT the previous week.

 

Hog futures were down 1.06%, continuing a month long slide. Pork production YTD is down 0.8% from year ago. Pork production this week was 2.9% larger than the same week in 2012. Estimated slaughter totaled 2.353 million head, down 0.2% from last year but up 1.5% from the previous week.  Higher carcass weights (+6# per head vs. last year) are offsetting the lost head count. The pork carcass cutout value was down 1.83% this week, with pork bellies the weakest component for the second week in a row. USDA reported weekly pork export sales were much improved at 9,700 MT.

 

 Market Watch

 

Winter officially begins on December 21. The cattle market will begin the next week reacting to Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report, although the surprise factor was pretty limited. USDA will update Export Inspections on Monday, as well as the monthly Cold Storage report. Weekly export sales will be delayed until Friday because of the Christmas holiday on Wednesday. The markets will halt trading early on Christmas Eve and closed on Wednesday, and many traders will be absent all week. Don’t overlook Friday, which will feature the USDA Hogs & Pigs report, and also the expiration of the January grain options.

 

Visit our Brugler web site at http://www.bruglermarketing.com, find our iPad app "AgMarket" in the app store, or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

 

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.                  

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

Confusion in the Ranks

Dec 13, 2013

 Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

December 13, 2013

Confusion In the Ranks

 

Speculative traders will tell you "Never trade holiday markets". Then they try to do it anyway because that is the way they are! The concept is good, however, that end of year markets don’t follow the normal fundamental and technical trading rules because of other influences. The largest of those is year end book squaring. Fund managers are banking profits in order to pay taxes, and trying not to screw up performance with high risk trades that go bad. Funds that are heavy on asset allocation strategies are exiting winners and buying losers which they expect to outperform in 2014. On top of this stuff, you have confusion about the Fed policy moves relative to QE3 tapering. To see the confusion, just look at a US dollar index chart or a chart of 20 year or 30 year bond ETFs. Ag market action was equally confused, with soys, cattle and cotton up on the week, while feed grains and hogs were lower. Gold picked up about $7 for the week. Crude oil was down $1.15.

 

December corn futures erased all but 1 cent of their gain from the previous week, with all of the weakness on Thursday and Friday. Demand is a bright spot as low prices continue to work to cure low prices. Ethanol stocks did rise about 300,000 barrels, but imports have been zero for the past 10 weeks. USDA reported larger corn weekly export sales of 695,400 vs. 593,600 MT the prior week. Those included fresh sales to China, which has now rejected as much as 180,000 MT of arriving US corn cargoes in the past month for containing an unapproved GMO trait. US corn export commitments are already 72% of the upwardly revised December USDA forecast for the year. The 5 year average commitment for this time would be 52%. USDA gets a chance to revise that number on Tuesday. USDA is still showing Brazilian 2013/14 corn production down 14% from last year (11 MMT), due to lower acreage. Argentina is also seen down 500,000 MT.

 

Soybean futures were up 0.15% this week. Weekly US export sales were a larger than expected 1.52 MMT (56 million bushels) of combined old and new crop business. Total US export Commitments are now at 96% of the USDA forecast for the entire year, with more than 8 months remaining. Soybean meal export sales slowed, but 62% of the projected sales for the year are already booked. The average pace would be 49%. December meal futures jumped to $510/ton on the last day of trading, thanks to a short squeeze and zero deliveries vs. the contract. January meal was much tamer, up 1.3% for the week.

 

Wheat futures were lower at all three exchanges, with Chicago and KC the weakest as they caught up to selling that had hit MPLS the week before. USDA confirmed the jump in Canadian production by passing the entire amount through to global ending stocks of 182.78 MMT. That is still tighter than the 198.94 MMT in 2012, but the market is trying to make some of it disappear. Total US export commitments are still a larger % of the USDA forecast than usual for this date, currently at 77% vs. the five year average of 71%.  Weekly wheat export sales through November 28 were better than the prior week’s 229,200 MT at 372,200 MT.

 

Cotton futures rallied another 3.49% this week. Global ending stocks are still projected to be record large at 96.41 million bales, with USDA raising the projection from 95.71 million bales in the November report. Projected US ending stocks were left UNCH at 3 million bales. China is seen holding more than half of the world surplus. Weekly export sales for the week ending December 5 slowed to 177,400 RB of all classes and years. US Export commitments as a % of total exports (for upland cotton) are now at 68%, lagging the 5 year average.    

 

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

11/22/13

11/29/13

12/06/13

12/13/13

Change

% Change

Mar

Corn

$4.29

$4.24

$4.34

$4.25

($0.09)

-2.07%

Mar

CBOT Wheat

$6.57

$6.68

$6.51

$6.28

($0.23)

-3.53%

Mar

KCBT Wheat

$7.018

$7.09

$6.95

$6.72

($0.23)

-3.31%

Mar

MGEX Wheat

$7.07

$6.81

$6.63

$6.60

($0.03)

-0.45%

Jan

Soybeans

$13.20

$13.37

$13.26

$13.28

$0.02

0.15%

Jan

Soybean Meal

$421.00

$436.00

$427.00

$432.60

$5.60

1.31%

Jan

Soybean Oil

$41.45

$40.46

$40.49

$39.83

($0.66)

-1.63%

Dec

Live Cattle

$131.48

$133.48

$131.43

$131.88

$0.45

0.34%

Jan

Feeder Cattle

$163.50

$165.48

$164.48

$167.08

$2.60

1.58%

Feb

Lean Hogs

$89.67

$90.57

$89.00

$87.17

($1.83)

-2.06%

Mar

Cotton

$77.23

$79.35

$80.41

$83.22

$2.81

3.49%

Mar

Oats

$3.24

$3.31

$3.28

$3.40

$0.12

3.66%

Jan

Rice

$15.72

$15.96

$15.55

$15.55

$0.00

0.00%

 

Cattle futures rallied 45 cents this week.  Feeders were up 1.6% due to the cheaper feed and the modest gain in hedging potential for the finished animals. Cash cattle did fall back about a dollar from the previous week, with reports of $131 the south and $206 trades in the north. There is an old saying that "The beef is the grief". Wholesale beef prices were down 1.3% on a Fri/Fri basis in the Choice, and up 0.1%  in the Select. Weekly slaughter was down 5.1 % from the same week in 2012. Year to date beef production is down 1.2%.  Estimated carcass weights are running 6-7 pounds above last year’s actual of 800 pounds. USDA reported weekly beef export sales of 11,500 MT, up from 9,500 MT the previous week. There were another 9,300 MT sold for 2014 shipment, so the combined total for the week was pretty good.

 

Hog futures were down $1.83 after a $4.00 plunge the previous week. December futures went off the board at $81.25. Pork production YTD is down 0.9% from year ago. Pork production this week was 3.2% larger than the same week in 2012. Estimated slaughter totaled 2.311 million head, up 0.6% from last year. Year to date slaughter through 11 months is down 1.5%, with higher carcass weights (4-5 lbs) offsetting some of the lost head count. The pork carcass cutout value was down a hard $3.34 or 3.7% this week, with pork bellies (last week’s leader) the weakest component. USDA reported weekly pork export sales were a slow 5,300 MT vs. 9,900 MT the previous week. The weekly sales reports are still missing more than half of the export business to Japan, the largest buyer.

 

 Market Watch

 

The ag markets will begin the week reacting to Friday’s mass expiration of December grain and hog contracts. NOPA is expected to release its crush estimate for November on Monday or Tuesday. The FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday with the usual speculation about tapering of their interest rate subsidy program (QE3) and whether such tapering should matter to the markets. We will get the usual USDA Export Inspections report on Monday, and weekly Export Sales on Thursday morning. The main monthly USDA report will be Cattle on Feed, scheduled for Friday afternoon. Not to be overlooked, Winter officially begins on Saturday, December 21.

 

Visit our Brugler web site at http://www.bruglermarketing.com, find our iPad app "AgMarket" in the app store, or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

 

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.                  

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

Corn Was Higher

Dec 06, 2013

 Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

December 6, 2013

Corn Was Higher

We haven't been able to say it much recently, but corn was higher this week. December corn futures gained 9 cents for the week, more than erasing the 7 cent dip from the previous week. Demand is a bright spot as low prices continue to work to cure low prices. Ethanol stocks are hovering near the lowest reading since reporting began in 2010. Imports have been zero for the past 9 weeks, as US prices have been cheaper than those in Brazil. That has the industry optimistic about export potential. Ethanol plant margins are very attractive. USDA reported slower corn weekly export sales of 593,600 MT for the week ending November 28. Those included fresh sales to China, which was simultaneously rejecting some arriving US corn cargoes for containing an unapproved GMO trait. Export commitments are already 73% of the November USDA forecast for the year. The 5 year average commitment for this time would be 50%. USDA gets a chance to revise that number on Tuesday.

 

Soybean futures lost 0.8% this week. Weekly US export sales were a larger than expected 1.16 MMT of combined old and new crop business. China continues to aggressively buy US beans for 1Q14 delivery. Total US export Commitments as a % of total exports are now at 95%, which compares to 78% last year and the 5 year average of only 69%.  Profit margins for end users continue to provide a positive influence.  Soybean meal export sales continue to be very strong (and front loaded) with 62% of the projected sales for the year already booked. The average pace would be 49%. South American planting activity continues, with the BAX estimating that 58% of the Argentine crop is now planted.  Some sources suggest that up to 5% of the Brazilian crop has reached the pod set stage. Brazilian basis levels suggest at least a few beans will be at the ports by February, with the basis quoted at +$1.20 for January and +$.45 for February.

 

Wheat futures were lower at all three exchanges. Stats Canada hammered the market at midweek with a sharp upward revision in their 2013 production estimate, to 37.5 MMT. The trade had been looking for something with a 33 in front of it. A 4 MMT surprise is about 147 million bushels of extra competition for US wheat at home and in the export market. Total US export commitments are still a larger % of the USDA forecast than usual for this date, currently at 76% vs. the five year average of 70%.  Weekly wheat export sales through November 28 were the slowest of the marketing year at 14 totaled 229,200 MT.  

Cotton futures rallied another 1.6% this week on top of a 3.9% gain the prior week. This was mostly short covering into expiration, which was on Friday. Global ending stocks are still projected to be record large at 95.71 million bales. Weekly export sales for the week ending November 28 totaled 271,800 RB of all classes and years. That was down a little from the 306,800 RB the preceding week. Export commitments as a % of total exports (for upland cotton) are now at 66%, which compares to 63% for this point last year, and lagging the 5 year average of 70%.    

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

11/15/13

11/22/13

11/29/13

12/06/13

Change

% Change

Dec

Corn

$4.22

$4.22

$4.15

$4.24

$0.09

2.11%

Dec

CBOT Wheat

$6.45

$6.50

$6.55

$6.37

($0.18)

-2.71%

Dec

KCBT Wheat

$6.983

$7.018

$7.13

$7.05

($0.08)

-1.12%

Dec

MGEX Wheat

$6.97

$6.99

$6.86

$6.63

($0.23)

-3.39%

Jan

Soybeans

$12.81

$13.20

$13.37

$13.26

($0.11)

-0.82%

Dec

Soybean Meal

$410.50

$427.80

$456.60

$447.30

($9.30)

-2.04%

Dec

Soybean Oil

$40.47

$41.16

$40.22

$40.28

$0.06

0.15%

Dec

Live Cattle

$133.40

$131.48

$133.48

$131.43

($2.05)

-1.54%

Jan

Feeder Cattle

$165.82

$163.50

$165.48

$164.48

($1.00)

-0.60%

Dec

Lean Hogs

$85.90

$85.63

$85.68

$81.68

($4.00)

-4.67%

Dec

Cotton

$77.12

$75.21

$78.14

$79.38

$1.24

1.59%

Dec

Oats

$3.43

$3.69

$3.65

$3.66

$0.01

0.21%

Jan

Rice

$15.77

$15.72

$15.96

$15.55

($0.42)

-2.60%

 

Cattle futures lost $2.05 this week, leaving us a nickel worse than two weeks ago. Feeders were down $1, or 0.6%. Cash cattle didn’t cause the futures weakness, as they traded mostly $132 and steady/higher from a week ago. Weekly slaughter was down 1.9% from the same week in 2012. Year to date beef production is down 1.2%.  Estimated carcass weights are running 8 pounds above last year’s actual of 797 pounds. Wholesale beef prices were down 0.7% on a Fri/Fri basis in the Choice, and down 1.8% in the Select. USDA reported weekly beef export sales of 11,500 MT, up from 9,500 MT the previous week.

 

Hog futures were down a sharp $4.00 this week as cash hogs failed to rally and December futures gave up their premium to cash. Pork production YTD is down 1.0% from year ago. Pork production this week was 0.5% larger than the same week in 2012. Estimated slaughter totaled 2.325 million head, down 1.6% from last year. Year to date slaughter through 11 months is down 1.5%, with higher carcass weights (4 lbs) offsetting some of the lost head count. The pork carcass cutout value was up 51 cents or 0.57% this week, with pork bellies the strongest component. USDA reported weekly pork export sales were an improved 9,900 MT vs. 8,700 MT the previous week.

 

 Market Watch

 

USDA will release the monthly Crop Production and WASDE supply/demand estimates on Tuesday morning. That will be the main scheduled news event.  We’ll also get the regular Export Inspections on Monday and weekly Export Sales on Thursday morning. Monday is first notice day for December cattle deliveries. Friday will be the last trading day for December grain contracts and December hogs.

 

Visit our Brugler web site at http://www.bruglermarketing.com, find our iPad app "AgMarket" in the app store, or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

 

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.                  Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

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