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Outlook Today

RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

“No good information” for the grain markets.

Jul 10, 2009
The July USDA Supply and Demand report held no good information for the bull! With a 153.4 bu. per acre yield, carryover for next year is going to be at least 1.55 billion bushels. Since the crop conditions report is indicating a much greater crop than last year, the potential is quite high that the August report will increase carryover potential. I know there are a lot of producers out there who think USDA is crazy right now. The acres are not out there and the crop is not as good as the trade is being made to believe. Frankly, I’m not far from your opinion. The problem is it will not be proven until we get to fall for yield and January for the final acreage figures. Between now and then you have to trade the reports and that implies the potential of carryover moving above 1.8 billion bushels which suggests we don’t have to ration demand right now. What we have to do is get carry back in the market and force producers to store product forward.

Implications: If you have forward sold inventory you are happy! If you have unsold inventory you are really having problems. My suggestion is dump the inventory on any moderate bounce and re-own around the August USDA Supply and Demand report. Looking forward the real challenge now is getting December 2010 corn next spring up to a price that is attractive to forward sell.

If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
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COMMENTS (4 Comments)

Anonymous
Where are you located that you are seeing flooding for a 200 mile radius?
3:14 PM Jul 12th
 
Anonymous
The way it looks where I'm at corn waist high on average, 10% intended acres went to beans or did not get planted. Soybeans were almost all planted at the same time as double crop most ankle high to just emerging, many bean acres unplanted probably 10% also. Late bean planting here means 30-35 bushel max, last years replant only did 35 planted slightly earlier with ideal conditions. This is at least 200 mile in every direction from here with many areas getting flooding rains this past week.
12:17 PM Jul 11th
 

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