After receiving the planting intention and grain stocks figures on Monday, one would have thought by Friday we would have seen more direction to this market and yet I sense more uneasiness from people calling in than I did before the report and the bottom line is it all comes down to weather.
USDA said on Monday that corn acres would be at 91.691 million acres and ending stocks at 7.006, both reports were considered bullish with the market passing through upside objectives and making a high of $5.082 on Tuesday, April 1. For the rest of the week the market was mixed and could not surpass Tuesday’s high on bullish news and concerns regarding weather as well. This time last year many of you were already in the field.
Throughout much of the Midwest rains are expected every couple of days and ground temperatures are still too cold. Now the way it looks many will not be able to do any form of fieldwork for the next two weeks. So why is corn flat to range bound? It is still too early and corn can still be planted within the optimum time period for good yields.
Soybeans on the other hand saw bearish numbers and November soybeans went above $12 this week. Planting intentions came in at 81.49 million acres, higher than trade expectations, weather is seen as being bearish to soybeans and stocks were not as tight as anticipated coming in at 992 million bushels.
So what does all of this mean? For those of you who have not made any production sales, an opportunity to do so above $5 may be available here in the next 30 days and for others it is a time of reflection to make any changes in your marketing plan if needed. One must also look at ahead at the 2015 production and look for opportunities to hedge future production at levels above input costs.
If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com.
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