Sep 22, 2014
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June 2014 Archive for Outlook Today

RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Looking Ahead to Monday's USDA Reports

Jun 27, 2014

The grain markets closed mixed today, the last full day of trading before the Actual Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports due out on Monday at 11:00 am Central time. The USDA has surprised us so I would assume Monday will be no different. I look for a bearish tone in the soybeans with the potential for increased stocks and acres. In my opinion, corn also has the potential for a slight increase in acres. One could assume that shortly after the midday reports, the market will revert back to weather and if the afternoon Crop Progress Report will show any deterioration.

I would assume that everyone has placed their hedges and waiting to see the final numbers. Rain makes grain and one must assume that in many areas pollination will come early and not unless we continue to see more wet pockets throughout the Midwest the potential for a large crop is there. We will post our thoughts and recommendations on Monday after we have reviewed the numbers.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.

DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

 

What's Ahead for Soybeans

Jun 13, 2014

NOVEMBER 2014 CORN

SOURCE: CME Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.


November 2014 soybeans closed today at $12.212 with a 24-cent range for the week. The outlook for soybeans is bearish. Warmer temperatures are coming with periodic rains and what makes grain? Good weather and not unless demand increases, supply has the potential to grow. A close above $12.31 would suggest increased demand and the potential for the soybean market to move higher. A close below $12 would imply the potential for the market to move back to the old low of $11.62 and after that the potential this fall to see $10.89.

We are 11 trading days from the Actual Acreage report. Look for the market to be range bound until the report. Not unless there is some bullish news regarding acres in the report, soybeans should continue its downtrend for the near-term. One should not let the market go below $12 without having positions in place.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.


DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

It's All About Weather Now

Jun 06, 2014

DECEMBER 2014 CORN

SOURCE: CME Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.


The market bounced today on what was viewed as oversold conditions. The crops look good and Monday’s Crops Progress report should show both corn and soybeans fully planted and at least 70% in good condition. I feel there is little reason for a continued move higher in the grains with the near-term weather report showing chances of rain and cooler temperatures throughout the Plains and the Midwest over the next 11-15 day forecast. Without any threat of heat and the continued greenhouse effect, the crops can only grow.

Look to sell on bounces in the market and it is our suggestion to have all marketing decisions made before December corn goes below the $4.50 level and November beans below $12.
If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.

DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

 

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