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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Are corn lows in?

Aug 07, 2008
O.K. guys and gals, we are getting the weakness we want to buy on but if you’re a mere mortal it’s getting really difficult to buy in face of the daily price breaks. Yesterday’s correction in December corn down to the March panic low of $5.21 should be it!  If we take out this level the next major support will not be seen until $4.80. 

All I can say is we are now moving the market down to critical support levels which should hold. If they are to be breached, I believe several things has to happen. First, we have to confirm in excess of a 154-bu. corn yield next week. I’m at Corn College this week and this is the best corn around. The bias I’m picking up is its good but we have forgotten about all the wet spots. The tone of producers is the combines are not going to find it when they start to run this fall.

The second thing I believe will have to happen is the continued long positions of the trading funds will have to be flushed. Concern about inflation is not over and they will continue to hold position. It should be noted that some of the recent sharp price declines has been due to large trading funds being forced to liquidate their entire commodity positions due to big losses.

Finally, the third thing that I believe must happen to force the market through major support levels is demand has to be confirmed as to being hurt more than the August report is suggesting.  I’m hearing the feed wheat supplies are increasing and this could very well hurt corn exports.
If you want to go over details or would like to read more daily recommendations regarding reownership or marketing strategies, email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.

The recommendations and opinions contained herein are based upon information from sources believed to be reliable. However, that information may be incomplete and unverified. There are numerous factors that can affect the markets, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of these recommendations. Those following these recommendations do so at their own risk. The firm and/or customers of the firm may take a position that may not be consistent with the recommendations herein. Any recommendation does not constitute an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any commodity interest. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
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