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Outlook Today

RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Grain Markets Up on Weather Concerns

Apr 29, 2009

Here are the comments from our weather advisor. He’s been on the money for the last several weeks.

Bottom line: Farmers are going to be slow in getting the crop into the ground before mid-May. I would suggest the potential is building for a major high in May but it will be difficult to sell because of concern about corn pollination. If there was ever a good argument for buying in the money puts I believe this will be the case. Once we get past the July Supply/Demand report I would look to convert the puts to cash sales or short futures to reduce the time value decay cost.  You need to be looking at our web site for complete details about how we are making catch-up sales.  For information call Laura at 1-800-832-1488
 
WXRISK.COM WEDNESDAY MORNING WEATHER
Not only have the weather models not changed in the overnight but if anything the pattern looks worse over the next 10 to 14 days than it did yesterday. By worse I mean more rain systems and no break in the pattern through MAY 10 -12... if then.
 
There are no changes in the short range forecast. The Wednesday morning radar shows our new system bringing moderate to significant rain over central and eastern portions of OK TX and NEB.... and into eastern SD with a lighter amounts over southern MN and SD. There are no changes in how the model for handling the system. Low pressure will develop over eastern KS and MO by the evening and tracked through the heart of the WCB into the lower Great Lakes Thursday night. This will bring a significant rain event back into the Midwest over the next 48 hours.
 
We also still have the front which moved through the Midwest Tuesday and through the Northeast last night... now stalled in a WSW - ENE orientation from southern MO to KY into lower WVA and over the Washington, DC metro area.
 
Weather models still show a fairly strong and chilly HIGH coming out of Southwest Canada into the central and upper Plains and Midwest this weekend. Temperatures will run Below Normal over these areas but at least it will be dry for a few days.
 
However that front stalled over the Deep South is going to become a problem because a New Low-pressure will develop over western TX on Sunday then moved to the TN Valley on Monday and into the ECB on Tuesday with another significant rain event.
 
Already however the next energy racing in on the extremely powerful Pacific jet will be developing a new rain threat for the Plains by May 6 ... for the Midwest on May 7... followed by another significant system coming out of the West coast into the Plains & Midwest by May 10.
 
And the hits just keep on coming.
 
 
If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com. Tomorrow we will talk a little about the bonds, gold and crude oil.
 
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
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COMMENTS (1 Comments)

very Anonymous
cool!!!!
9:34 PM Apr 30th
 

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