The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.
Weather is not hot, hogs and cattle are being processed, gas demand is low,large crop planted, plenty of wheat to feed,Alberta crops going to feed,world demand low.
Why would the Dec corn go up?
The corn acres are not there in S.IL, S.IN and Kentucky. I'm in the seed business and its not just our company its Dupont and Monsanto too. 30% less corn acres in those areas.
I agree your scenario this fall is worst for those that don't have 2009 grain marketed. As for corn, this year's NC highs (less local basis) barely got above our break-even. Other than what got sold ahead for 2009 and 2010 in last year's rally, I'm curious how you advised producers to agressively market new crop corn pre-June 30 at prices that are only profitable with excess yields (which are difficult to count on prior to being planted). Remember that our highs this year occured prior to the June 30 report when most analysts were predicting short corn acres (and potential bullish prices). Guess that didn't happen. Right now it appears to me the required solution is to sell, buy back and sell again, etc. to build incremental increases to the original cash price. Is this type of marketing where we all need to be headed? Risky business and options continue to be expensive, so does guessing this market and the 'flavor of the day' explanations of price moves. Thanks for your comments and thoughts.