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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Grains trading in a see-saw pattern

Oct 21, 2008
The see-saw battle continues for the grains and oil seeds. Yesterday’s gains were washed away today.  The big issue is where is the bottom. I have to continue to suggest last week’s lows look more and more like the panic bottom. I would not be surprised this week to see limited follow through today’s correction. 

We’ve been seeing very good harvest progress. Most of the inventory is going to get locked up. One still has time to get long for feed needs and reownership between now and right before Thanksgiving. More specifically, if we can get past the November USDA Supply and Demand reports and show no signficiant increase in supply or reduction in demand, I have to say all fundamentals are in place for a low for “now”.

The problem is we need time to see how much damage we have done to the domestic and global demand.  I would propose we should see a confirmation of lows in November a sideways to higher price pattern into end of year simply because of lack of selling. As we get into the new year, one simply has to wait to see how much strength will develop. Right now I would suggest a working number is lead month corn back above $5 and beans above $10 should be extremely difficult to develop. 

Bottom line: Don't fall in love with the inventory you put in the bin unpriced. You might want to consider selling out of money calls at the strike price you want to sell at and at least pay for all the storage cost to get the inventory into the time period you desire.


If you want to go over details or would like to read more daily recommendations regarding reownership or marketing strategies, email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2008.
 
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