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Outlook Today

RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

It all comes down to weather!

Apr 24, 2009
Dollar weakness is the big news today. It’s down big! I would encourage you to review the on your AgWeb. Essentially, it has a solid top around the 90-cent level. The last two days' recent drop and follow through to the downside is opening up the concern that is there something wrong.

The answer is yes. The world is getting concerned that the U.S economic recovery may be slower than expected. Unemployment claims, instead of spiking lower, are still going up. The auto industry is in crisis with GM looking to go into bankruptcy and Chrysler not much further behind. Finally, the chairman of the Fed looks to be in political hot water. Talk is starting to surface he may be replaced with an individual that is much more in line with administration thinking. This has all led to big concerns about the U.S. economy and it’s speed of recovery—thus the exceptionally fast decline in the dollar.  Granted, short term it may help corn exports but long term if the dollar were to drop below 76 I believe it would be reflective of a slower and possible resumption of big concerns about the economic health of the global economy.
In regards to corn, it’s going to be all about weather for the next several weeks. To help us get a handle on this, we have joined up with Dave Tolleris to help us understand the weather patterns. He will be giving an update every Wednesday.  So far his opinion continues to be cool and wet for much of Midwest into early May. Granted we will get some field work done, but the risk are growing that much of the Midwest is going to be forced to plant around the wet spots. If this pattern continues much beyond May 20th, one would expect more beans and less corn acres. It forces me to look positive on the long July corn/short bean spread or long December corn and short November beans.

If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or e-mail me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
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COMMENTS (2 Comments)

David
Corn planting is beginning here in southern Ky. Things look pretty good with sunshine and a little wind to dry out the ground.
6:25 AM Apr 25th
 
C.J.
My custom harvestor friends are headed for Texas,OK, and KS soon.....not good. One harvestors first job in Texas was hailed out 6-8 circles of wheat! OK and KS are reporting to them short wheat, maybe 10 bu@ They have to cut it for the insurance payment. I look for wheat and corn ( if planting delays are the deal) to pull the grain market in a big way. I am very bullish on Wheat!
11:21 PM Apr 24th
 

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