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Outlook Today

RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

It's time to wait and see!

Mar 03, 2009
Beans saw a nice bounce today in old crop but new crop continues to be weak under longterm concern of a big acreage increase. As for corn, it was a very quiet market as the market digests yesterday’s big price break to good support levels.

Overall, the tone seems to be wait and see for now. First, will the stock market turn up? Second, will next week’s USDA Supply and Demand report have any major surprises on carryover for corn and beans? Finally, what will the acreage report suggest?

I continue to urge all clients to lock up basis on any hedge-to-arrive contracts in corn for spring or early summer delivery. As for upside price potential, it’s going to be really difficult getting December 2009 corn back above $4.20 in my opinion.

In regards to beans I continue to suggest the March report next week should be the last really bullish event for old crop beans. My biggest fear is that we may find more beans production in South America. I would not be surprised to see global stocks build and I continue to be concerned about downside price risk in November 2009 beans longterm. Right now I’m in the “hope” phase for a bounce to get more inventory sold.

Just a quick note on out side markets, lumber and copper had a strong price bounce today. They could be putting in an important low. Gold’s under pressure but should be difficult to get June gold below $880. Cattle and hogs are stable. Supply has tightened, but consumers both domestically and internationally are not spending yet.  Most traders want to be buying on technical corrections. As a seller of inventory I would only be protecting downside risk with a limited cost put right now rather than a net short futures.

If you want to go over details or would like to read more daily recommendations regarding reownership or marketing strategies, email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.

BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
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