Jul 28, 2014
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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Long liquidation pressure in the grains

Jul 06, 2009
Today’s break is a continuation of the heavy selling and long liquidation pressure that we saw last week.  The crop conditions rating is expected to show a very solid looking crop. Weekend rains I believe may show the crop is actually improving. Even if your crop is being hurt, you have to accept overall the market has little immediate weather concern. Right now the only thing the corn market has to hope for is some dry weather igniting the bean market and eventually pulling up corn. The problem is this potential is still towards the end of the month into August. Right now I have to say the bear is in full control. Farmers have a lot of old crop corn that needs to come to the market. The crop is getting better. The outside markets are turning bearish. 

So the issue is how far does the market have to go before it has overdone the down side?  At this time the bears have until mid-August before any worries about early frost appear. The next two weeks could be very negative. Right now I would recommend a net short position. Don’t try to buy it just yet, wait for a technical bounce.  As we get closer to the end of the week we could see a bounce but overall the $3.20 level is the next target and more than likely a lot of people will be talking about the $3 to $3.10 level.

My suggestion: If you are short, enjoy the ride but don’t press your bet. If you have been long, I hope you got out. Take a break and get ready to come back hard in late July to early August. If you are still long you have a tough decision to make. Either you hold for another 50-cent risk and scale down which it will be more than likely be next year before you recover or get out and lick your wounds and prepared to come back in strong at lower levels.

If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com or laura@utterbackmarketing.com.

BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
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COMMENTS (5 Comments)

MRKENNEDY
What happened to the big ethanol boom? It must have gone BOOM.
4:11 PM Jul 8th
 
Anonymous
If the corn in midwest looked like it does in southern 1/3 Ill. it would already be 5 or 6 $. I just traveled from Olney, Ill. to Denver on Jul. 3 an 4. Very few beans over 5 in.
3:37 PM Jul 8th
 

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