By: Bob Utterback
, Farm Journal
Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.
My thoughts on the corn market
Jun 29, 2009
Tomorrow we will get a stocks report and the important acreage projection by USDA. There is a uniform opinion that acres will be down, the question is how much? One group has acres down only 500,000 or less while the other camp has acres down close to 1.5 million plus. I have to say the tone of the market is one of being defensive and preparing more for a disappointing report than a bullish report. Since this is a holiday week the normal pattern is for prices to be very active through Wednesday but then slow down on Thursday and Friday as many traders take off for the long holiday.
The weather patterns seem to be supportive to continued corn improvement. While the weekly crop conditions are expected to drop a little, overall the conditions will remain above a year ago. Our meteorologist continues to suggest concern for growing degree days rather than excessive heat. This would suggest the crop could look really good through July and August but simply not have enough time to fill out the crop.
Technically, the breaking of the sideways consolidation below the $4 level is not a good sign for the bulls. It will be critical that prices start to bounce quickly or a quick slide down into the $3.80 level for December corn is very likely. Right now it will take a technical close above $4.20 to get the trade excited that about higher price potential.
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