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Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.
The past week has been pretty good harvesting weather too. There's major gains being made in a week - for instance in the crop progress report for 11/9 - soybean harvest increased 25% in one week. That's awhole lot of beans in one week. We are currently 75% done with beans, meaning the bean harvest could potentially be over here relatively soon, if we can bring in 25% in one week, it should be reasonable to expect the last 25% to come in within 2 weeks. I am sure not all will be, as some fields will not be able to get done - but being over 90% complete with beans in very achievable within 2 weeks. Not much of any rain in the forecast, expect for a 3-40% chance of rain this weekend. A dry November is saving this crop.
I was talking beans. I had 70 degrees yesterday and nice sun. Can't ask for anymore than that in November.
Dairy Farmer - No, we do not have a price floor that ensures a break even. Throught government loans, we are sort of gauranteed a price, but it is pretty low. The ACRE program is supposed to be more of a revenue protection program, but as it is new, no one really knows how it will work. (I say no one, but I'm sure there are at least a few out there that are smarter than me that do) I used to recieve "direct payments" that were designed to help me out, but this year input costs were outrageously high, and although I am not in danger of a huge loss, I'm sure that those cash renting, or making payments on land, wil be fairly tight. My Breakeven on corn is close to 2.80/bu., but if I had the added expense of cash rent, that would be closer to 3.90/bu.. Not much margin for error. You are right to be lookig for a reason you are being squeezed, so are we. What I see, is that our suppliers saw a runup in grain prices, and took full advantage to run up our fertilizer and chemical costs. I also believe that the paper markets are distorting the cash market. It will correct, but I believe it will take a while. I understand that you all are also facing some tough times as the few who buy your milk are playing games with you. It's tough now, but I'm sure that prices will correct, and when they do, you can expect massive amounts of squealing from the public, and our legislators to react unfavorably..