Aug 24, 2009
The phones are very quiet today. The producer is turning off the radio and simply not paying attention to the market. He’s gone fishing!
The Pro-Farmer crop tour would suggest the crop is out there, it’s simply late. One should note that the tour results are historically skewed to the positive side so when they get bearish this does mean something. Overall, everybody right now is holding off on selling because of the fear of frost.
Cool weather is going to move into the market the first of September which will make the market very nervous and keep the bulls hope alive that something is going to happen to lift prices. While I grant you there is some risk, I would equally suggest this is exactly what you need to get any chance for make up cash sales. I can not stress strongly enough the risk you are taking if you plan to harvest the crop and put the corn in the bin unpriced.
Producers still have a lot of old crop corn, we are finding increased production of corn, and potentially increased supplies of feed wheat are showing up. This all suggests to us here at UMS that a significant price drop from mid-September to Thanksgiving could develop if we confirm that the corn yield is in excess of 165 bu. per acre.
Our suggestion: SELL RALLIES!
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