The grains could not hold their gains!
Mar 11, 2009
If you have been reading my copy or reviewing our website, you know we have been holding a rather sizable hedge position. When I first saw the numbers, short-term I felt it could be rough for the hedger but an opportunity for unpriced subscribers to get caught up. Corn carryover was reduced down to 1.74 billion bushels which I frankly thought would have been up and bean carryover was reduced down to 185 million bushels on strong continued export projections. It was at the low end of carryover projections. If ever there was an excuse for the bean market to take off, today was the day.
Then, after reviewing the numbers a little more, the world stocks numbers suggested that carry was actually being increased. When you put add the extremely negative numbers of the wheat complex it all added up to a potentially bullish report for beans and corn but with concerns.
Before the open everyone was talking 15 to 20 up in beans, 5 to 8 up in corn, and 2 to 4 in wheat. Granted the market opened firm but it quickly became obvious that the trade was not interested in bidding up prices. As the wheat market started to move lower you could sense it was pulling down corn and beans along with it. Finally, as it moved into the last hour of trading the corn and beans threw in the towel.
Looking forward I have to suggest the December 2009 corn and November 2009 beans' inability to hold gains is extremely troubling. In fact I’m becoming a little more concerned about new crop corn and bean acres. I would not be surprised if the March figures are higher for both! This all suggests to me that December corn at $4.12 and November beans $8.42 are now going to be stiff overhead resistance levels. I fear the odds are no better than 40% that we will see a retest of the $4.22 to $4.35 price level.
Bottom line: If ever there was a year when we need a weather event to trigger a spring to early summer rally now is that year!
If you want to go over details or would like to read more daily recommendations regarding reownership or marketing strategies, email me at firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com.
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