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Outlook Today

RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Weekly Outlook?

Nov 13, 2009

This week we have provided our clients with several reports, one was on an analysis of storing corn vs. beans and the other was on a technical analysis of outside markets. It’s our conclusion that the market fundamentally and technically has limited reasons for storing beans. Second, one should be storing corn but selling the carry. Finally, overall the outside markets are in a bullish tone but caution is recommended due to the current overbought status of some of the contracts. We suggest the 10 year T-note contract is the commodity to watch for when interest rates are going to start rallying and subsequently concern about inflation starts to falter. We have also noted in the copy that the Natural gas contracts are at a very good level for buying. We have encouraged producers to do this in order to protect their long-term Natural gas or (nitrogen cost).  If you are interested in the complete report call (1-800-832-1488) the office for a trial subscription to our web site which has the entire reports.
 
A couple other factors I’m hearing. First I talked with one of our subscribers in Minnesota today.  He said the corn was drying down nicely from the 31% starting rates to current 18 to 20% moisture. The problem he was having now was simply getting enough propane to dry down the corn. I’m wonder how many other producers are having this same problem, is it regional? The second issue was on Wednesday and Thursday the trade was talking about diseases and mold problems. A lot of this was due to the high moisture counts. With the last two weeks of decent dry down weather I’m starting to wonder how bad the issue remains? Right now it’s on the trade radar screen, concerned but not bullish. My bigger concern is with the high moisture levels, producers are going to have difficulty getting corn down to 15% moisture levels which is needed to stop all growth of mold in the corn. Unless producers exercise superior bin management we are going have some very bad corn show up later next year. Thanks to a good friend,  I’ve been given permission to reproduce some solid suggestions about this problem. We will be posting it on our website this weekend in the free front page section. P.S. it’s simply too big for the daily copy.
 
SUMMARY: I don’t believe we are going to have a harvest flush this year but the Jan to Feb time period could be really interesting. How bearish things get will heavily depend upon what’s happening in the outside markets.
 
FINAL THOUGHT: What are you estimating your 2010 corn and beans will cost you to produce? Please send me your working numbers. I will have summary of results hopefully by next Friday if I have enough respondents. Send e-mail to bob@utterbackmarketing.com.  Have a safe harvest
 
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
 
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COMMENTS (20 Comments)

Anonymous
60% of grain demand is livestock... so do you want all of us to throw in the towel? That will hurt you too.
10:01 PM Nov 17th
 
Anonymous
8:12
none of the things you mentioned concern me.if i was raising livestock i would throw in the towel.how do you make progress in life when all you do is lose money?
9:11 AM Nov 17th
 

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