Sep 21, 2014
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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Grains Up Prior to Christmas

Dec 21, 2010

We are now into the holiday week. Normally, it is reduced volume and many traders elect to move to the sidelines. However, it appears the market wants to move higher under pressure from the bulls. The expectation is growing that supply problems will persist into the New Year, along with strong demand. The market is now 18 days up in the current rally without a correction. I believe the odds are increasing significantly that a lot of the bullish expectation will be factored into the market before the January report.

Please note that the Dec 2011 contract broke above the $5.40 overhead resistance today. This opens up a move to the $5.62 fall high. While many producers seem to be waiting for the $6 level, we urge caution in getting too bullish. While we still recommend waiting until closer to mid-January, we believe one must start thinking about a scale-up selling program -- start right below the old highs and get very aggressive as the market moves closer to $6.
 
The soybean market advanced nicely under continued concerns that strong demand was going to push up domestic prices. There seems to be a general lack of selling interest right now.  Subsequently, it takes very little to move up the market.  My only concern is it’s almost too easy for the market to move higher. If we have any change in attitude this market could experience a correction very quickly. While we do have some concern about the short-term overbought status, we have to say the overall long-term picture looks positive. Our strategy continues to be defending previously sold positions and holding off on selling new crop inventory. We really don’t believe this market will end in a “V” top, but more likely a distribution top that should give producers plenty of time to get sales in place.
 
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2010.
 
 

 

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