Brasil and Argentina Crops
Mar 25, 2009
We see sx/cz very tight, and think about what we should do if planting in USA! As soybean price is not so better than corn, and it should be the “corn year” for many ones who planted soy last year… ethanol mandatory mix to come… crude in a seasonal price uptrend… maybe it’s giving more chance to corn, isn’t it? How is the fertilizers prices to producers now?
From our side, soybean harvesting is advanced relating to last year. In MT I guess it’s about 75% harvested, and yield is around 52 -55 bags /ha. PR is confirming a reduction on 10% of soybean early estimated volume due to last drought.
RS was earning yields since rains came back, but now weather is a problem again. In southern Brazil (RS, SC and PR states) many hectares of soybean are in the filling stage. And rains have stopped again. Has more than 10dd it’s doesn’t rains in RS crop area, and we don’t see rain forecast until mar/27th.
This situation is the same in Argentina – it’s something the market has forgotten for a while - very few rains in the next seven days, and again in the following week. And in AR it’s more dangerous, because about 1,800 acres was planted very late when rains came back.
Meanwhile, soybean basis still positive here. About 0,50 over cbot. I can say it’s the highest basis I’ve seem by this period. Same in Argentina.
We expect also a better basis in the internal market for cotton this year. Brazil will produces about 1.200 mi tons, and domestic industries is expected to buy 1.000 mi tons. As 400 mi tons is expected to be exported, some old crop cotton will have to be used. We can hear some proposals around 50-55¢ for September/09. The 20% reduction in cotton area is confirmed.
Will appreciate to know your thoughts about planting trends!
