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WHEAT:  U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 2,917 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2012/13.  Wheat production is projected at 2,057 million bushels, down 9 percent from last year with reduced prospects for Hard Red Winter wheat.  The all wheat yield, projected at 44.1 bushels per acre, is down 2.2 bushels from the record levels of 2012/13 and 2010/11.  The survey-based forecast for winter wheat production is down 10 percent with the lowest harvested-to-planted ratio since 2006/07 and lower yields as persistent drought and April freezes reduce crop prospects in the southern and central Plains.  Partly offsetting is higher forecast Soft Red Winter wheat production with higher area.  Spring wheat production for 2013/14 is projected to decline 8 percent as reduced durum area and a return to trend yields reduce prospects for durum and other spring wheat. 

Total U.S. wheat use for 2013/14 is projected down 7 percent year-to-year with lower domestic use and exports.  Feed and residual disappearance is projected 70 million bushels lower as larger supplies and lower prices for feed grains in 2013/14 limit wheat feeding by late summer.  Partly offsetting is a 13-million-bushel increase in domestic food use as flour extraction rates fall from a very high level in 2012/13 and consumption grows with population.  Exports for 2013/14 are projected at 925 million bushels, down 100 million from the 2012/13 projection.  Large crops for major export competitors limit opportunities for U.S. wheat.  U.S. ending stocks are projected to decline for a fourth consecutive year.  At 670 million bushels, ending stocks would be down 61 million bushels from the 2012/13 projection.  The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $6.15 to $7.45 per bushel, down from the record $7.80 projected for 2012/13 as world prices for wheat and coarse grains are expected to decline sharply by fall.

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are projected 3 percent higher than in 2012/13 with a 51.2-million-ton increase in foreign production more than offsetting a 19.3-million-ton reduction in global beginning stocks and lower forecast production in the United States.  At the projected 701.1 million tons, global production would be a record and up 45.5 million from 2012/13.  Production for 2013/14 is projected higher in all of the world's major exporting countries with the largest increases expected in the FSU-12 and EU-27, up 29.9 million tons and 6.7 million tons, respectively.  Production is projected higher for Australia, Argentina, and Canada, up a collective 6.2 million tons from the current year.  Also affecting global trade prospects in 2013/14 are year-to-year production increases for major importers, the Middle East and North Africa, where weather has been favorable for winter crops since seeding last fall.

Global wheat exports for 2013/14 are projected higher than in 2012/13 with increases expected for FSU-12, Argentina, and India more than offsetting reductions for EU-27 and Australia.  Global wheat consumption is projected 20.0 million tons higher with increases in both feeding and food use.  Wheat feed and residual use is raised for FSU-12 and EU-27 with larger production.  The largest increase in food use is for in India, but lower prices support small increases for many countries.  Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 186.4 million tons, up 6.2 million on the year.
 
COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 400.5 million tons, up 25 percent from 2012/13 with higher area and yields expected for corn, sorghum, and oats.  Corn production for 2013/14 is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, up 3.4 billion from 2012/13 when extreme drought and heat reduced yields to their lowest levels since 1995/96.  The 2013/14 corn yield is projected at 158.0 bushels per acre, 5.6 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum in February (www.usda.gov/oce/forum/presentations/Westcott_Jewison.pdf).  The slow start to this year's planting and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind the 10-year average reduce prospects for yields.  Corn supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 14.9 billion bushels, up 3.0 billion from 2012/13.

U.S. corn use for 2013/14 is projected up 16 percent from 2012/13 on higher feed and residual disappearance, increased use for ethanol, sweeteners, and starch, and a partial recovery in exports.  Feed and residual use for 2013/14 is projected up 925 million bushels reflecting a sharp rebound in residual disappearance with the record crop and an increase in feeding with lower corn prices.  Projected corn use for ethanol is increased 250 million bushels from this month's higher projection for 2012/13.  Lower corn prices and high prices for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINS) support profitability for ethanol producers.
 
U.S. corn exports for 2013/14 are projected 550 million bushels higher than this month's lower projection for 2012/13.  At the projected 1.3 billion bushels, 2013/14 exports are expected to rebound from their lowest level since 1970/71.  An expected fourth straight year of record foreign corn production with large crops in South America and the FSU-12 will provide substantial competition for the United States.  U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.0 billion bushels, up 1.2 billion from 2012/13.  The season-average farm price at $4.30 to $5.10 per bushel is down sharply from the record $6.70 to $7.10 for 2012/13.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 1,407.6 million tons, up 113.8 million from 2012/13.  Global corn production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 965.9 million tons.  Foreign corn production is up 23.5 million tons.  The largest increases are projected for the FSU-12, EU-27, and China, but large crops are again expected in 2013/14 for Brazil and Argentina.  Global corn trade is projected higher with increased imports for China more than offsetting a reduction for EU-27.  Spurred by lower prices, smaller year-to-year import increases are projected for a number of countries.  Exports are lowered for Brazil, India, and Argentina, but raised for Ukraine and EU-27.  World corn consumption is projected at a record 936.7 million tons, up 72.8 million from 2012/13 with foreign consumption up 41.5 million.  Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected up 29.2 million tons on the year.  At 154.6 million tons, stocks would be a 13-year high.

RICE:  Tighter U.S. 2013/14 all rice supplies, forecast down 6 percent from 2012/13 and lower projected use, down 7 percent from 2012/13 result in ending stocks that are down 3 percent from the previous year.  Beginning stocks and production for 2013/14 are both forecast lower from a year ago, while imports are forecast 5 percent larger.  U.S. rice production for 2013/14 is projected at 189.5 million cwt, down 5 percent from 2012/13.  Harvested area is estimated at 2.59 million acres based on average harvested-to-planted ratios for the previous 5 years, the lowest area since 1987/88.  Average all rice yield is projected at 7,317 pounds per acre, down 2 percent from the previous year's record. 

U.S. 2013/14 all rice total use is projected at a 213.0 million cwt, 7 percent below the previous year.  Domestic and residual use is projected at 115.0 million cwt, 4 percent below 2012/13.  All rice exports are projected at 98.0 million cwt, 9 percent below 2012/13, and the lowest since 2008/09.  Long-grain rice exports are projected at 69.0 million, 10 percent below the previous year, and combined medium- and short-grain rice exports at 29.0 million, 7 percent below 2012/13.  U.S. long-grain exports will be limited by a tighter U.S. supply situation, and increased competition among the major South American and Asian exporters.  Exports of medium-grain rice will be constrained by tighter U.S. supplies and greater competition from Egypt and Australia.  U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 33.1 million cwt, 3 percent below the previous year.  Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 21.9 million cwt, 7 percent above 2012/13, and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks at 9.0 million, 22 percent below the previous year. 

The U.S. 2013/14 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $13.80 to $14.80 per cwt, compared to a revised $14.20 to $14.60 for the previous year.  The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, compared to a revised $15.80 to $16.20 for the year earlier.  The 2013/14 all rice price is projected at $14.30 to $15.30 per cwt, compared to a revised $14.70 to $15.10 per cwt for 2012/13.

Global 2013/14 total supply and use are each projected to reach record levels at 584.7 and 476.8 million tons, respectively, resulting in a 2.4-million increase in world ending stocks. Global 2013/14 rice production is projected at a record 479.3 million tons, up 9.0 million from 2012/13.  Record to near-record rice crops are projected in Asia.  Record crops are projected for the major exporters including India, Thailand, and Vietnam. Additionally, large crops are forecast for other exporters including Burma, Cambodia, and Egypt.  On the importer side, record or near-record crops are forecast for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Global 2013/14 consumption is projected at a record 476.8 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous year.  Global exports in 2013/14 are projected at 38.9 million tons, up marginally from 2012/13.  India and Thailand are forecast to be the largest global rice exporters in 2013/14 with exports of 8.5 million tons each followed by Vietnam at 7.7 million tons.  Large 2013/14 imports are projected for China, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa with Nigeria the largest in that region.  China's imports have surged since 2011/12-forecast to be 2.9 million tons in 2012/13 and 3.0 million in 2013/14-making China the largest global rice importer in 2013/14.  China's annual consumption needs have overtaken production since 2012/13.  Strong domestic prices in China have encouraged imports of lower-priced rice from Burma, Pakistan, and Vietnam.  Global 2013/14 ending stocks are expected to increase 2.4 million tons to 107.8 million, the largest since 2001/02. 

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 100.9 million tons, up 9 percent from 2012/13.  Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase.  Sunflowerseed, peanut, and cottonseed production are each projected below last year's crops.  Soybean production is projected at a record 3.390 billion bushels, up 375 million from the drought-reduced 2012 crop on slightly higher harvested area and higher yields. Soybean yields are projected at a weather-adjusted trend level of 44.5 bushels per acre, up 4.9 bushels from 2012.  Soybean supplies are projected at 3.530 billion bushels, up 10 percent from 2012/13.  Additional soybean meal exports for 2012/13 are offset by reduced domestic consumption, leaving crush unchanged.  Soybean exports and ending stocks for 2012/13 are also unchanged from last month.

The 2013/14 U.S. soybean crush is projected at 1.695 billion bushels, up 60 million from 2012/13 reflecting increased domestic soybean meal consumption and exports.  Despite increased competition from South America, U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast higher on sharply lower prices.  Soybean exports are projected at 1.450 billion bushels, up 100 million from 2012/13 on increased supplies and competitive prices.  Ending stocks are projected at 265 million bushels, up 140 million from 2012/13.  The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2013/14 is forecast at $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel compared with $14.30 per bushel in 2012/13.  Soybean meal and oil prices are forecast at $280-$320 per short ton and 47-51 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 491.3 million tons, up 4.7 percent from 2012/13 mainly due to increased soybean production.  Global soybean production is projected at 285.5 million tons, up 6 percent.  The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54.5 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2012/13 on record planted area and higher yields.  The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 85 million tons as higher harvested area more than offsets lower yields.  China soybean production is projected at 12 million tons, down 0.6 million from 2012/13 as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops.  If realized, harvested area at 6.6 million hectares would be down 28 percent in the past 4 years.  Global production of high-oil content seeds (rapeseed and sunflowerseed) is projected up 6.1 percent from 2012/13 on increased rapeseed production in Canada, India, EU-27, and Ukraine, and increased sunflowerseed production in Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey.  Oilseed supplies are up 5.1 percent from 2012/13.  With crush projected to increase 3.4 percent, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 82.6 million tons, up 12.3 million. 

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 2.7 percent in 2013/14.  Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.3 percent in China, accounting for 32 percent of global protein consumption gains.  Global soybean exports are projected at 107.1 million tons, up 11.3 percent from 2012/13.  China soybean imports are projected at 69 million tons, up 10 million from the revised 2012/13 projection, leaving soybean supplies up 5 million tons from the previous year.  Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to rise 3 percent in 2013/14, led by increases for China, India, and Indonesia.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2013/14 is up 2.1 percent from 2012/13, as higher beginning stocks and imports more than offset lower production.  Lower beet sugar production reflects reduced area and a return to trend yields, while lower cane sugar production is based on trend yields.  Imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) reflect minimum U.S. commitments to import raw and refined sugar and projected shortfall.  The Secretary will establish the TRQ at a later date.  Total use is up 1.8 percent and ending stocks are slightly higher than a year earlier.

For Mexico, 2013/14 supplies are down 1.8 percent from 2012/13, as higher beginning stocks are offset by lower production.  Higher domestic use and lower ending stocks are based on trends in population and reasonable carryover requirements, respectively.  Exports to all destinations are lower, but shipments to the U.S. market are up 5.3 percent from 2012/13.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Total U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2014 is projected to be above 2013 as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets declines in beef production.  Tighter cattle supplies and potential heifer retention during late 2013 and into 2014 are expected to limit cattle available for placement, thereby reducing fed cattle slaughter in 2014.  Lower cow numbers and herd rebuilding will also limit non-fed beef production.  Pork production is forecast to increase more rapidly than in 2013 as lower forecast feed costs provide incentives for producers to expand farrowings and increase carcass weights from 2013 levels.  Broiler and turkey production are forecast higher as lower forecast feed prices encourage expansion despite lower poultry prices. Egg production for 2014 is forecast to expand as producers respond to lower feed costs.  

The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2013 is lowered from last month as lower pork, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets greater beef production.  Higher cattle placements are expected to support higher fed beef production and cow slaughter has remained relatively high.  However, recent winter storms have affected cattle weights which are lowered slightly from last month.  Pork production is down marginally on lower forecast slaughter in the second of half of 2013.  Broiler production is lowered on hatchery and chick placement data to date, while turkey production is cut on lower poult placements.

Continued year-over-year declines in U.S. beef production are expected to push beef exports lower in 2014.  Pork exports are expected to rebound in 2014 as supplies increase and demand improves.  Broiler exports are forecast higher on expanded supplies and moderating prices.  Beef imports are expected to be higher in 2014 as U.S. cow slaughter declines and domestic non-fed beef supplies tighten.  Pork imports are forecast up fractionally from 2013.

The 2013 red meat export forecast is lowered from last month, largely due to lower expected pork exports.  The beef forecast is adjusted to reflect lower first-quarter exports.  Poultry exports are raised as higher broiler exports more than offset lower turkey exports.

For 2014, cattle prices are forecast to rise above 2013 as supplies continue to tighten. Hog prices are forecast to be slightly lower than 2013 on higher production.  Broiler, turkey, and egg prices are forecast to be below 2013 as production expands.

Cattle price forecasts for 2013 are unchanged from last month. Hog prices are down fractionally from last month on weaker second quarter prices.  Broiler prices are forecast higher as prices remain strong.

Milk production for 2014 is forecast higher as lower feed costs and relatively strong milk prices are expected to support production.  Commercial exports are forecast higher on robust international demand.  Imports will be lower on greater domestic supplies.  With higher domestic production, cheese, butter, and whey prices are forecast lower than last year, while nonfat dry milk (NDM) is higher largely on continued strength in international demand.  Both Class III and Class IV prices are forecast lower.  In the case of Class IV, lower forecast butter prices more than offset higher NDM prices.  The all milk price is forecast at $18.85 to $19.85 per cwt for 2014.

Forecast milk production in 2013 is unchanged from last month.  Imports are raised.  Exports are higher as abundant U.S. supplies and competitive prices are expected to spur foreign demand.  Cheese, butter, and NDM prices are raised from last month while whey is lower.  The Class III price is lowered as lower whey prices more than offset greater cheese prices.  Class IV is up reflecting higher prices for butter and NDM.  The all milk price is forecast at $19.50 to $20.00 per cwt.

COTTON:  The U.S. cotton projections for 2013/14 include lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2012/13.  Projected production is reduced 19 percent to 14.0 million bales, based on regional average abandonment and yields.  Abandonment for the Southwest region is projected at 25 percent due to continued drought conditions.  Domestic mill use is projected at 3.5 million bales, 100,000 bales above 2012/13.  Exports are projected at 11.5 million bales, down 13 percent from 2012/13, due to the smaller available domestic supply and lower imports by China.  Ending stocks are reduced to 3.0 million bales, equal to 20 percent of total use, which is well below the previous 10-year average.  The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers is 68.0 to 88.0 cents per pound, compared with 72.0 cents estimated for 2012/13.

The initial 2013/14 world cotton projections show world ending stocks of nearly 93 million bales, the third consecutive seasonal record, as China's policy of stockpiling cotton in its national reserve is assumed to continue.  World production is projected nearly 3 percent lower than 2012/13 at 117.8 million bales, as reductions, mainly for the United States, China, Turkey, Greece, and Mexico, are partially offset by increases for Brazil, India, Pakistan, and Australia.  World consumption is expected to rise 2 percent due to modest growth in world GDP.  World trade is expected to fall 12 percent, as sharply lower imports by China and India are partially offset by increases for Pakistan, Turkey, Mexico and others.  World ending stocks outside of China are projected to fall nearly 2.0 million bales.

China's national reserve stocks are currently expected to reach nearly 40 million bales at the end of 2012/13.  Based on the government of China's current reserve purchase and release prices and import quota policies, USDA is projecting that China will import 12.0 million bales in 2013/14 and will add 10 million bales to ending stocks as reserve purchases exceed reserve sales.  The resulting projected China ending stocks of 58.2 million bales would account for 63 percent of world stocks.

For 2012/13, the final U.S. crop production estimate of 17.3 million bales is virtually unchanged from last month.  U.S. exports are raised 250,000 bales, reflecting recent activity and stronger expected imports by China, which are raised 1.8 million bales from last month.  India's production and consumption also show significant increases.

 

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Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 36 years.

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This report was sent to subscribers on 4/12/13 11:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 4/15/13.

May Soybeans

After the close recap on 4/15/13: My resistance was 14.19, .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 13.92 3/4, .01 from the actual low.

All charts and numbers for 4/16/13 have already been sent to subscribers at 2:40 pm.

May Soybeans

14.49 ¼ 200 DMA
14.36
14.19
------------14.12 ½ Pivot
14.06
13.99 ½
13.92 ¾

5 day chart... Up from last week same day
Daily chart .... Sideways
Weekly chart... Down
Monthly chart ....Sideways 14.49 is the 200 DMA
ATR 22 ¾ Ex. Overbought 90%

 May chart is on top; November chart is on the bottom. 

For 4/15/13: Daily numbers support and not much resistance above $14.19 until $14.49.

November support is $12.20 1/2, bracket line resists at $12.58, downtrend line is next at $12.60.Bracket line at $12.25 1/2 is pivotal. Day resistance is $12.35, $12.39, and $12.48.

In my May daily soybean numbers on Friday my resistance was .07 1/2 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.02 3/4 from the actual low.

4/15/13:
Grains: Old crops greatly gained on the new crops, and posted a nice week for the bulls. That could continue in an up or down market this week. Friday was a low volume choppy day. Everybody knows what the reports had to say, what the weather and forecasts are, and have placed their bets on their perceptions of the fundamentals. I know enough that I would not bet on any of those factors, and feel comfortable to trade what opportunities I see in the charts instead.

December will benefit from the strength in the old crop, but faces stiff resistance at the bracket line at $5.71. The newly drawn downtrend lines at $5.62 and $5.66 comes first. There is no fundamental reason I can see without weather for December corn to get past $5.71. Below the bracket line which is now support at $5.47 will warrant a test of the low this year of $5.25 1/2. The low of 2012 for this contract was the gap low at $5.11, so as far as I am concerned this "double bottom" will be strong support this year, and will not be broken until
 
May soybeans posted over $.50 in gains this week, and clawed back half of the losses since the report 2 weeks ago. That $14.60 should be strong resistance now, and the low posted last week should be good support. We are also almost back to the middle of the bracket line support and bracket line resistance, so I have no bias whatsoever, and would flip a coin, you call it!

November soybeans tested the bracket line support that goes back to July and could be a "double bottom" now at $12.25 1/2 (low of $12.20 1/2) and will be strong support until broken. The downtrend line coupled with the bracket line resistance provides major resistance now at $12.62 3/4. If you have not already, seriously think about buying some call spreads back if we get above $12.35, $12.39, and certainly if above $12.63.

Old crop is to be day traded under these conditions, new crop for longer term trade ideas. I want to sell new crop corn or soybeans if the market can rally to a strong resistance level. In less than a year we have seen record high prices, record inverse carry charge spreads, and it would not surprise me to see more spread records fall. Last 5 years should have prepared you for whatever is to come, new highs for the year, new lows for the year, up, down, sideways, or inside out. Just try and take advantage of the pendulum swings when you can, and limit your risks. Participate, you can be long or short and control the amount wagered precisely the way we are using options, and you can be bullish or bearish short term and reflect it by a "morph", and might be the opposite in the long term, but whatever you do your position should reflect what protection and upside you want ON EXPIRATION.

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You are always long or short from the last trade price, as well as the unhedged producers, so always make yourself comfortable with your hedge as time goes on. If you are bearish, the best thing to do is to stay ahead of your coverage and at the same time give yourself a little "wiggle room" in case the market rallies. You want to be rewarded for being wrong too! As you have seen me say many times, call spreads sold for $1 or more and collected $.20+ has done their job considering they are worth less than $.05 and there is more than 7 months remaining until expiration. These market can move "faster than a speeding bullet" so I always keep in mind that "markets can and will do anything". Knowing that, I always want to not risk much on any idea, and even though I am bearish in the long run, does not restrict me from thinking and planning for the "what if" rally and buying back a call spread or selling some put spread by now. Like you did in the original hedge and did not collect money from that call spread not sold, and what was not collected was same as you paying for it. I am risking little to gain much more if it does. If I stay in something worth $.05 after making $.15, I am risking much more than what is to be gained, and will take a long time to collect. I really like to make money when I am wrong.

"I continue to prefer to take the sell signals rather than the buy signals, but day trade without bias and risk $.03 1/2 in corn and $.06 in soybeans, which was all that was needed to make winning trades on report day without risking much on any idea."

4/12/13:
Grains: I also recommend buying a call spread such as the November $14.40/$15.40 call spread if November soybeans trade at $12.53 or higher. The stop prices for the futures are both valid, but adjust the strikes to suit your needs. If you know this is what you want to do, or at a price level at another resistance level, then it takes the responsibility out of your hands for execution of what you want to do without hesitation or second thought. The thinking was done when you placed the order, and you are being responsible because you placed the stop order that takes care of risk.

The market was being mostly driven by spreading old crop versus new, and the May contracts against the
July, especially corn. I would not want to touch the old crop spreads, but if I was day trading it, I would want  to day trade from the "long side" (long May short July) and would take home only a few at best. Same goes for  soybeans. Both soybeans and corn bull spreads widened on Thursday, but May. December corn was trading  much of the day at $.08 gain to the May versus the December, but huge profit taking before the close brought
that spread back to only a $.01 gain for the day at settlement.

May soybeans need to make a new high for the week and close higher to turn the charts friendly, a close over $14.11 1/2 would be bullish. November closed out last week at $12.28, and needs to close above the bracket line support at $12.25 1/2 that it kissed on Thursday. As long as above there the bulls have a chance, and it seems that the old crop is saving it from lower prices considering it is up $.39 3/4 for the week on Thursday's close. I continue to want to sell any rally at resistance, or below the $12.25 1/2 line especially for new hedges.

"I continue to prefer to take the sell signals rather than the buy signals, but day trade without bias and risk $.03 1/2 in corn and $.06 in soybeans, which was all that was needed to make winning trades on report day without risking much on any idea. Corn broke $.32 1/2 on report day from high to low; you always need a plan for risk".

4/11/13:
Grains: Report highlights I feel have meaning: USDA kept on farm prices unchanged for soybeans at $13.80 to $14.80, and $7.80 for wheat down $.05. Corn price was lowered $.15 for corn down to $6.65 to $7.15. Corn ending stocks came in at 757 MB (bullish) down from the trade estimate average of 812 MB. Ending stocks
for soybeans fell 11 MB below expectations to 125 MB (bullish), and wheat added 4 MB to 731 MB (bearish). SA corn and soybean production came in over expectations (bearish). There was a 10+ MMT gain in world grain stocks (very bearish and shows how high prices destroys demand).

You can see the face value of these numbers for yourself, and I shrug my shoulders and say, I don't care, but  all these services that have nothing to write to actually help you understand at least the risk reward that you face, or have substantial amount of risk hedged one way or another, they only have their take on the fundamentals to sell, and they tell you the fundamentals are the reason for you to continue to assume the risk of being unhedged. Or they tell the speculators what the market should do (go higher or lower) based on the fundamentals, they can sell that. What they cannot sell is becoming self reliant with no need to even know there is a report out. Do you really think that a trader on the floor is going to leave the pit to go read what the report had to say? Traders know what they are doing, and the mere fact that you cannot read and trade at the same time proves what I have been saying, you never know what the market will do but you should always know what you are doing and why. Your goal should be to become self directed.

The drivers are now the funds willingness to keep their long positions, farmers' willingness to sell, and the end users need or want to buy. For me this is bearish. Time is on the side of the bears until weather becomes a factor, now it is not. I am not going to trade the weather through grains especially at this time. It is all in the charts, when it gets to a resistance it should find good sellers, and when at supports you will find buyers. But the sellers should have much more confidence selling the resistances than buying unless at a strong support level.

It would be impossible to read the report or just get the key numbers, and trade. The electronic session found their computers respond to the numbers and initially became buyers that set off buy stops that probably set off more buy stops because of the lack of orders working going into the report. It was thin and probably not liquid. But whoever was long and seen windfall profits or wanted to go short, sell orders flooded the market. Of course

I continue to prefer to take the sell signals rather than the buy signals, but day trade without bias and risk $.03 1/2 in corn and $.06 in soybeans, which was all that was needed to make winning trades on report day without risking much on any idea. Corn broke $.32 1/2 on report day from high to low; you always need a plan for risk.

4/10/13: Grains: As you know markets move up and down and in between, and in volatile markets it happens many times. So if you look at the last thing you do as being right or wrong in the short term, it can be right later on, and then wrong again as time passes. It must be the right thing for you to do when you do it (or why would you do it), not what the market does afterward.

The report comes out at 11am today, so you do have some time to adjust your position to be comfortable no matter the result. I looked at articles today and have seen the same "stories" for decades. Some do not believe the USDA numbers, and 99 out of 100 of them are the people who are on the wrong side of the market. The average guess for corn stocks is 812 MB, so old crop depends on what the numbers show, as well as production and demand estimates from around the world. I read an article that is already saying no matter what the USDA says, it is incredible. Even if you agree, that would mean you are taking the word of a service over the word of the USDA, and let's say you are ok with that too, but how do they get THEIR numbers and how are they more accurate, when the government has a vastly larger bureaucracy to gather information? I am not telling you to believe anything, I am telling you the USDA numbers are the USDA numbers, and I do not see the market all eyes at attention when these analysts' numbers come out. When these same analysts look at the past, they are always comparing themselves to the USDA; the USDA does not compare itself to these analysts.

The bottom line has always been for me, I do not care what the report says, I care how the market reacts to it. Fundamentals does not put money in your pocket, the price does. As you know, bullish reports are being sold within 4 days in the last 18 months, and this is always in play on report day. If the report is bullish or bearish, that will not tell me to buy or sell, the chart does that for me. Yes, like the last report, I said it would go much lower and it did, and did not expect too much more after it going down $1, and now here we are correcting
where it came from, reducing the commitment to further downside at this time. I have wrote this every time needed, and if we were at the bottom right now especially near a long term support I would tend to buy it with a known risk strategy, and if we were at a resistance and an extreme at this time I would sell it with a known risk strategy. My opinion does not drive my trading, my charts do. Yes, I can get a bias like the last report, but that is what it is a bias, not a trade idea.

You can say all of these services are "cold" right now, they could not pick their nose let alone a winning horse you would say if you were at the racetrack, so why would you listen to services who has been "handicapping"
the grain market so poorly, and getting down to making their "last bets" to try and get even? We started to do something at $6.50, I even have one producer that bought the $6.60 put spread from September 2012 and hedged the last one in December at $6.60 (the December 2013 corn), and has kept it and "morphed" down to  $5 4 months ago. Almost everyone hedged at $6.40 or higher, what have they done? Wait, sell it in the spring  or summer, sell at last year's high of $6.65, and now even some suggesting selling it next year, are you  kidding me? Many are still holding 50% or more of last year's crop, are you kidding me? Are they producers
or investors they are giving advice to? Watching all time highs come and go and still not selling or at least hedged, and they are suppose to reduce your risk, is like me trying to perform brain surgery, they should have someone else do it. Instead of reducing risk, they lost more than they were willing to make, and nothing says the market cannot keep going down.

They do not have a plan for risk as their strategies have clearly shown, and even some who sold the old crop recommended buying a call and selling an out of the money put (or 2) to pay for it, are now long once again since the puts are in the money. Strategies like that put you at risk, not take it off the table. BE SELF DIRECTED, you could not have done worse than what seems to be out there, the worst you could have done was like them, with most being at least 60% unhedged right now.

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WASDE Report for 4/10/13

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 15 million bushels higher this month with a small increase in seed use more than offset by lower expected feed and residual disappearance.  Seed use for 2012/13 is raised slightly based on producer planting intentions for 2013/14 as reported in the March 28 Prospective Plantings.  Feed and residual use for 2012/13 is projected 15 million bushels lower reflecting lower-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated by the March 1 stocks.  Feed and residual use is projected lower for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Hard Red Spring wheat, but declines are partly offset by higher expected feed and residual use for Soft Red Winter and White wheat.  All-wheat imports are unchanged, but a small increase in HRW wheat is offset by a decline in durum.  The projected range for the wheat season-average farm price is narrowed  5 cents on both ends to $7.70 to $7.90 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 2.9 million tons on higher world beginning stocks with the biggest increases for EU-27, Morocco, and Mexico.  The increased stocks primarily reflect balance sheet revisions that lower 2011/12 domestic wheat use for several countries this month.  Global 2012/13 production is nearly unchanged, but notable changes are made for some countries.  Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Morocco with an upward yield revision.  EU-27 production is decreased 0.2 million tons with lower reported output for the United Kingdom.  Saudi Arabia production is lowered 0.2 million tons with lower area.  Smaller reductions are made for Chile and Tunisia.

Global wheat trade is projected higher for 2012/13 with exports raised 2.6 million tons.  Exports are increased 1.0 million tons each for Australia and EU-27.  Exports are also raised for the FSU-12 with Ukraine up 0.5 million tons and Russia up 0.2 million tons.  Import changes are made for a number of countries.  The biggest increases are for Iran, Algeria, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the United Arab Emirates.  The biggest declines are for Morocco, Russia, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam.  World wheat feed and residual use is lowered 5.2 million tons with much of the decline resulting from a 3.0-million-ton reduction for China.  Wheat feed use is also lowered 1.0 million tons for EU-27 with smaller reductions made for Russia, Vietnam, and Ukraine.  World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 4.0 million tons higher with China stocks raised 3.0 million.  Increases for North Africa, EU-27, Iran, and the United States more than offset a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia and smaller reductions for FSU-12 and Saudi Arabia.

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected higher this month as an increase in ending year corn stocks more than offset reductions for sorghum, barley, and oats.  Corn feed and residual disappearance is lowered 150 million bushels reflecting indicated disappearance for the first half (September-February) of the marketing year.   The reduction in corn feed and residual use is partly offset by a combined 20-million-bushel increase in projected feed and residual use for the other feed grains based on the March 1 stocks.  Adding to 2012/13 feed grain supplies this month are increases of 3 million bushels and 2 million bushels, respectively, in projected barley and sorghum imports.

Domestic corn use for 2012/13 is projected 100 million bushels lower as a 50-million-bushel increase in corn used to produce ethanol partly offsets the lower projection for feed and residual disappearance.  Larger-than-expected March 1 corn supplies, lower corn prices, and favorable margins for producing and blending ethanol limit the expected year-to-year decline in ethanol production during the second half of the marketing year (March-August).  Corn exports for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine.  Projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 125 million bushels.

The projected ranges for the season-average corn and sorghum farm prices are lowered 20 cents at their midpoints to $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel and $6.60 to $7.10 per bushel, respectively.  The projected farm price ranges for barley and oats are narrowed 5 cents on each end to $6.30 to $6.50 per bushel and $3.75 to $3.85 per bushel, respectively.
 
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected higher with a 1.1-million-ton increase in world coarse grain production.  Higher world corn production is partly offset by reductions in China sorghum and Algeria barley output.  Corn production is raised 1.5 million tons for Brazil as continued favorable growing season weather boosts prospects for production to a record 74.0 million tons.  EU-27 corn production is raised 1.4 million tons with upward revisions to production in Spain, Hungary, and Poland.  Corn production is also increased 0.2 million tons for Russia on the final government estimate.  Partly offsetting these increases are reductions in corn output for South Africa, Vietnam, and Serbia.  South Africa production is lowered 0.5 million tons as more heat and dryness in March further trim yield prospects in the western and west central parts of the growing belt.

Global coarse grain trade for 2012/13 is raised slightly as a small reduction in world corn exports are more than offset by increases for EU-27 barley and India sorghum.  Corn exports are lowered 0.6 million tons for the United States and 0.5 million tons for South Africa, but exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Brazil and Ukraine.  Global corn feed and residual use is down 5.3 million tons with much of the decline reflecting the reduction in the United States.  Feed and residual use is also lowered for China, Egypt, Mexico, and Serbia.  A 1.5-million-ton increase in EU-27 corn feed and residual use is partly offsetting.  Global corn stocks are raised 7.8 million tons with 3.2-million-ton increases for both the United States and China, and a 0.9-million-ton increase for Brazil.

RICE:  Higher-than-previously expected March 1 U.S. rice stocks, as reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on March 28, results in a 5.0- million-cwt reduction in all rice 2012/13  domestic and residual use, and a commensurate increase in ending stocks.  No changes are made on the 2012/13 supply side or to projected exports.  Long-grain 2012/13 domestic and residual use is lowered 4.0 million, and medium- and short-grain domestic use is lowered 1.0 million. The all rice 2012/13 export projection is unchanged at 108.0 million cwt.

NASS estimated March 1 all rice rough stocks at 104.3 million cwt and milled rice stocks at 6.7 million cwt (9.5 million on a rough-equivalent basis). The March 1 all rice stocks estimate on a rough-equivalent basis at 113.8 million cwt is up 0.8 percent from a year earlier, and up 0.9 percent from the preceding 5-year average.  The decrease in 2012/13 domestic and residual use led to a 5.0 million cwt or 17 percent increase in all rice ending stocks to 34.1 million cwt.  Long-grain ending stocks are raised 4.0 million cwt to 20.4 million, and medium- and short-grain stocks increased 1.0 million to 11.5 million.

The projected U.S. average milling yield for 2012/13 is reduced to 70 percent, down 0.25 percentage points from last month.  The change is based on data supplied by the Rice Millers' Association of the USA Rice Federation for August through January and on expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

The midpoint of the 2012/13 long-grain, medium- and short-grain, and all rice season-average prices are unchanged at $14.50 per cwt, $15.90 per cwt, and $14.90 per cwt, respectively.

World rice production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 467.6 million tons, still a record, largely due to lower projections for Colombia, Pakistan, and Thailand, which are partially offset by increased projections for Ecuador,  Indonesia, and the Philippines.  Global consumption is reduced 0.9 million tons, largely due to reductions for Burma, Brazil, Pakistan, the Philippines, South  Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and the United States.  Trade projections for 2012/13 are little changed from a month ago.  Global 2012/13 ending stocks at 103.8 million tons are up 0.5 million from last month, but down 1.7 million from the prior year.

OILSEEDS:  The U.S. soybean crush for 2012/13 is increased 20 million bushels this month to 1.635 billion.  The increase reflects strong soybean meal exports through the first half of the marketing year.  Increased U.S. soybean meal exports partly offset reduced meal exports for Brazil and Argentina as crush in those countries declines more quickly than expected on reduced supplies resulting from last year's drought.  Soybean exports are projected at 1.35 billion bushels, up 5 million on stronger-than-expected shipments in recent weeks.  Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 28 Grain Stocks report.  U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, unchanged from last month.  Soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased production, food use, and ending stocks.  Increased food use partly offsets reduced imports and consumption of canola oil. 

The season-average price range for soybeans is projected at $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 48 to 50 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $415 to $435 per short ton, down 10 dollars at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 468.8 million tons, up 2 million from last month.  South American soybean production accounts for most of the change.  Paraguay soybean production is forecast at 8.35 million tons, up 0.6 million as higher yields more than offset reduced harvested area.  Projected yields resulting from favorable rainfall and relatively mild temperatures are the highest for Paraguay in the past 10 years.  Uruguay soybean production is also raised this month on higher area and yield.  Uruguay benefitted from the same favorable weather pattern seen in Paraguay and southern Brazil.  Other changes this month include higher rapeseed production for EU-27, higher sunflowerseed production for China, and reduced cottonseed production for Brazil.

Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 114.4 million tons, down 1.4 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade.  Lower soybean exports projected for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay are only partly offset by increases for Uruguay and the United States.  Lower exports in Paraguay reflect higher crush as new capacity becomes operational.  Soybean imports are reduced 2 million tons to 61 million for China reflecting lower-than-expected imports for the first half of the marketing year.  Higher soybean imports are projected for several countries including Egypt, EU-27, Mexico, and Vietnam.  Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 62.6 million tons, up 2.4 million as gains in Brazil and Argentina more than offset lower stocks in China.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is decreased 122,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, as lower production more than offsets higher imports from Mexico. Lower planted area and later seeding of the 2013 sugarbeet crop, compared with last year, reduce expected early harvest and sugar production in August and September.  For 2012/13 sugar use, the strong pace to date supports an increase of 100,000 tons.

For Mexico, 2012/13 cane sugar production is increased based on increased sugarcane yields.  Exports are increased both to U.S. and world markets, while higher ending stocks are in line with recent government forecasts.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month.  Beef production is forecast down as lower expected fed cattle and bull slaughter more than offset greater cow slaughter.  The pork production forecast is raised as the March 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated a slightly higher-than-expected first-quarter pig crop and a smaller decline in the number of sows which farrowed or are expected to farrow in the first half of the year.  Hog carcass weights are also raised as feed prices are forecast lower.  The broiler production forecast is lowered for the first quarter based on production data to date, but subsequent quarters are unchanged.  Turkey production is forecast lower as the turkey price forecast is reduced and hatchery data points to a slowdown in poult placements.  The egg production forecast is lowered, reflecting recent hatchery data.

The beef export forecast for 2013 is lowered, reflecting the pace of trade in the first quarter. Beef imports are raised on larger expected supplies in Oceania.  Pork exports are cut as exports to a number of markets are relatively slow.  The broiler export forecast is reduced from last month on expected higher prices.

Cattle prices are unchanged from last month.  Hog prices are lowered as greater inventories and weaker forecast exports are expected to pressure prices. Broiler prices are raised on robust current prices and demand.  Turkey price forecasts are lowered as demand has been weaker-than-expected.  The egg price forecast is raised on stronger-than-expected first quarter prices.

The milk production forecast for 2013 is reduced on lower milk per cow in the first quarter. Cow numbers are unchanged from last month.  Fat-basis imports are reduced mostly on lower imports of anhydrous products.  The skim solids import forecast is reduced largely on lower expected imports of milk protein concentrates.  Export forecasts are unchanged from last month.  Fat-basis ending stocks are forecast higher, but skim-basis stocks are lowered.

With slightly lower forecast 2013 milk production and improved domestic product demand, price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are raised.  As a result, both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are higher than last month. The all milk price for 2013 is higher at $19.45-$19.95 per cwt.

COTTON:  This month's 2012/13 U.S. cotton estimates include offsetting increases in production and exports, resulting in ending stocks of 4.2 million bales, unchanged from last month's forecast.  Production is raised 280,000 bales based on USDA's final Cotton Ginnings report, released March 25, 2013.  Domestic mill use is unchanged.  Exports are raised to 13.0 million bales, based on the larger supply and strong export shipments to date.  The marketing-year average price received by producers is now forecast at 70.5 to 73.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on each end of the range, reflecting recent higher prices.

The 2012/13 world cotton estimates show higher beginning and ending stocks and sharply higher trade.  Beginning stocks are raised mainly in India due to adjustments to the 2010/11 and 2011/12 balance sheets.  World production is forecast slightly lower as a reduction for Brazil is partially offset by the increase in the United States.  World consumption is raised slightly, as recent data indicate higher consumption for India and Vietnam.  Forecast world trade is raised 1.8 million bales, including a 1.5-million-bale increase for China, based on reported allocations of additional import quotas to mills.  Exports are raised for India, the United States, and Australia, but are lowered for Brazil and Mexico.

World 2012/13 ending stocks are now projected at 82.5 million bales, nearly 1 percent above last month.  China's higher imports are expected to displace potential sales from the massive national reserve, raising stocks there to a projected 45.6 million bales.  Stocks outside of China are projected 2 percent below last month. 

 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
 

The markets now covered daily are Soybeans,Corn, and S&P

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover markets for less than $10 a day.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllasDaily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

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Howard Tyllas

Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com
http://www.futuresflight.com/

   Tel.1-312-823-9189,  1-702-405-7245

Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.