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November 2009 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/30/09

Nov 30, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 11/27/09 5:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/30/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans

At 12:30pm Chicago time on 11/30/09: My resistance was 10.68, just .02 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 10.48 1/2, just .02 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

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10.80                                Resistance                            

10.68                                     

-------------10.48 1/2               Pivot  

10.29                         

10.21                         

 

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Up   (from last week same day)                                                 

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.59 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 26 1/2               Overbought 81%


January Soybeans Chart


I still say "Red bracket line near $10.50 is pivotal; downtrend line is now support near $10.12. Since downtrend line was hurdled the bulls hit their target of $10.68 but failed and created a "double top". I consider this a key reversal, but lately the funds have come back to negate this signal, so I consider the action bearish but not as strong as usual". After this spike low was made, it warranted the adjustment of the steep uptrend line.

    Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

    I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

   In my daily numbers on Wednesday my pivot acted as resistance and was $.05 1/2 from the actual high; my support was $.02 from the actual low.

     January Soybeans for 11/30/09

More chart comments: After you have seen this type of rejection at a high ($10.68) after rallying $1.14 in less than 2 weeks (almost a 10% gain) you will get the confidence that I have had for decades in taking trades at this type of location. When you look at the times it works versus the times you will get stopped out, and the amount gained when right versus the amount lost when wrong (does not hold) you see how I look at this trade as me being the casino getting the odds versus the player who gives up the odds.

   Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line (or the high of $10.68) to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

This week is the last big week for trading until the new year. I am expecting this week to be volatile in all markets.

Grains: As long as the dollar downtrend continues, grain markets do not look like they will erode until year end. Since Thursday night it has been obvious to me that corn is being bought and soybeans are being sold against it. Soybeans have gained on corn since early October and it looks like they will start to erode against corn now. PRC announced they are covered for the first 3 months of 2010 and will now wait for lower prices in soybeans before extending coverage. If soybean purchases slow and with corn coming in pushing soybeans into the pipeline, upside potential is limited. Corn has profitable ethanol business underpinning it, and until planting intentions insure 2010 US corn area gains, the downside is limited.

What I am thinking about is: 1. Nothing takes care of high prices better than high prices. Markets that get overdone such as crude oil last year because of speculative interest rather than fundamentals will see brutal corrective action as seen in 2008. Grains witnessed historic all time highs in summer 2008, to watch them fall 60% in corn and over 50% in soybeans a few months later.

2. Dollar is the driver and gold along with other hard assets such as the grains will be vulnerable when the dollar corrects. But until the dollar strengthens the grains should remain firm and stuck in the current trading range.  

3. The power of investment money is seen in the wheat market that has rallied 27% since the start of September 2009 at a time when this year's huge corn and soybean crop is being harvested, and wheat fundamentals are the worst of the 3 crops, amazing!

Bottom Line: Trading range until December corn (CZ) expires holding $3.76 FG on the downside, and $4.13 1/2 on the upside. If corn closes above there it would be bullish. January soybeans could get the weak shorts out above $10.68 but it would take a close above $10.80 to test the 2009 high of $11.05. I want to day trade this market and have no problem to buy or sell, but for now I still prefer to sell rallies.

I had a good day taking the buys as well as the sells on Friday. Lastly, the "little old lady at the racetrack mentallity" (no disrespect intended) would have complained about getting out of my shorts last night as I said at $10.36, and also I bought 1 at $10.25 1/2 to get long before closing the trade platform, and waking up to find them closing trade at $10.22. She woulda coulda shouda until we opened 2 hours later in open outcry and the market was at $10.35 and went up from there to close almost unchanged on the day. Like I said, I could care less what the market does after I am out of a trade, I just care that I executed my plan. I went home short corn, and have no other position. Market is expecting heavy deliveries in the December contracts.

  Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

 

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/24/09

Nov 24, 2009


This report was sent to subscribers on 11/23/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/24/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans

After the close on 11/24/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 10.50, just .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 10.32, the EXACT actual low. These are the same numbers I use in trading an actual $1 million account.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

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10.80                                Resistance                            

10.68                                     

-------------10.50               Pivot  

10.32                         

10.11 3/4                          

      Use the same numbers as used on 11/23/09

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Up   (from last week same day)                                                 

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.57 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 27                    Overbought 76%


Red bracket line near $10.50 is pivotal; downtrend line is now support near $10.12. Since downtrend line was hurdled the bulls hit their target of $10.68 but failed and created a "double top". I consider this a key reversal, but lately the funds have come back to negate this signal, so I consider the action bearish but not as strong as usual.

    Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

    I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

   In my daily numbers on Monday my resistance was $.01 1/4 from the actual high; my support was $.06 from the actual low.

     January Soybeans for 11/24/09

More chart comments: After you have seen this type of rejection at a high ($10.68) after rallying $1.14 in less than 2 weeks (almost a 10% gain) you will get the confidence that I have had for decades in taking trades at this type of location. When you look at the times it works versus the times you will get stopped out, and the amount gained when right versus the amount lost when wrong (does not hold) you see how I look at this trade as me being the casino getting the odds versus the player who gives up the odds.

   Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line (or the high of $10.68) to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

New subscribers should take note of what I have been trying to instill in your mind, fundamentals go only so far in trading since 2003 and the funds dominance, fundamentals do little in the way of price discovery, and technical levels, lines, and gaps on the chart present opportunities no matter the reason it got there. I do not take credit for your success or failure; I only take credit for providing you the best numbers I believe that are second to none. YOU are the trader, everyone with different tolerances for pain, timeframes, account size, approaches, money management, and that are the reasons I do not tell you what to do, I only tell you what I am doing or would do if I were to trade that market. That is why YOU take the credit if you are trading well and following your plan, executing when and what you are suppose to do, and you are also the one to recognize if you are not and must take control or make adjustments. I have no problem when I take trades that lose money, but I never let the loss get out of control and try to keep the amount insignificant. Yes, as you know I have had days when I made or lost $10,000 this year, but you also knew I had 50 spreads on. I did not lose that on a trade I originally allowed to lose $1,000. "All trades are not created equal" I have said many times, and contract size is one way to control money management.

Keep a daily journal and talk to yourself that way, and if you read a week or two later that you are doing something now that you said you would not do again, then you are self destructive, feel you are not worthy to succeed by doing the right things, and must take control of yourself. Do that and you have a much better chance to improve your trading and show some better results. If you are doing things right you can reinforce why you should continue to do that, including keeping track of what you are doing intuitively. As long as your intuitiveness is working, tell what and why you did that, and when your intuitiveness is not working, it will allow you to stop. Otherwise you will keep it real and know EXACTLY what it cost or gained.

Trading really does not take that much brains, it takes discipline, patience, execution of your plan, and the proper strategy (approach, and timeframe) based upon your personal mindset.

Grains: Corn harvested advanced more than I thought at 14% but that still leaves 3.4 billion bushels above ground instead of in the bin. IL, MI, WI, and the Dakota's having the worst delays showing less than 60% harvested. Red ink in the livestock sector, poor exports, and I read continued reports from farmers with smiles on their faces while they look at their yields should more than offset the delayed crop, but with the chart not only holding the uptrend line at $3.80, it looks like the 200 day at $3.85 1/2 is hanging on for now. With that being said, I think it is the funds that are holding up the market, not the fundamentals.

The dollar comes into play because many funds are playing chess and the dollar is what they are using in planning their next 6 moves. If you play chess or any strategy game, you have a plan but when your opponent (in trading it is the market) makes a move that you were not counting on, you change your next 6 moves. (If you are an chess expert, or at least have played for many years, you can have a plan from the first move until the end of game.)

It is not a day to day thing with the dollar, but it is where it might go, and before I strongly sell grains I want to see the dollar index get above 76130 (today close was 75185) and start to break the 8 month downtrend. Until then the funds premise still has merit and I do not want to fight city hall, at least not for more than a contra trade. What will the money flow be in December into and from the funds? I do not know, and this year I would flip a coin and give the bias to the funds getting more capital inflow. Last year was easy, they were all closing, at least more than a thousand. Commodity fund rebalancing has been in play for awhile with the "big boys" spreading rumors promising sizeable buying in corn and wheat. Maybe it is already baked or 1/2 baked into the pie already?

Soybeans enjoy the fact of the tightest of the 3 in stocks, and amazing export business. Unless soybeans close below $10.31, this market looks well supported. The "double top" at $10.68 is strong resistance for now. Again in a market I wanted to day trade for now I took home 5 shorts over the weekend. I had the chance to buy on the open Sunday night but waited for the market to get above the pivot covering 3, but reselling at $10.60 and adding 3 more at $10.65, stops were just above my resistance of $10.68, I like using a stop $.02 1/2 above resistance for now. I covered the best at $10.39 1/2. I have 2 SX/SF spreads on and I sold 1 at $10.47 1/2 tonight against my pivot, and will use a $10.51 1/2 buy stop to protect if it does not work. I want to day trade and will buy back at $10.37 1/2 to $10.39 tonight ($10.36 low so far tonight).

  Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

December Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/23/09

Nov 24, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 11/21/09 8:00 a.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/23/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Cattle

After the close on 11/23/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 84.15, .32 from the actual high, and my pivot was also support and was 84.15, .40 from the actual low. This rotation around the pivot tells me the market is looking for direction. 

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

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Sign Up for the Free Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas


86.35 FG XX            Buy Stops Above

85.42                         Key Resistance (DT Line)

--------------84.15      Pivot

82.87                       

 

 

      

Trend                         88.20 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....….   Up from last week same day                                                           

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways   

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .92                    Balanced 46%  





December Cattle for 11/23/09: 

I adjusted the red downtrend line to find resistance near 85.42, last week's low supports at 82.95.

In my daily numbers on Friday; my resistance was 0.07 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was 0.07 from the actual low. 

  Cattle: Numbers were spot on! Chart is improving and the bulls want to test the downtrend line resistances. Downtrend line should be solid at 85.42.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/23/09

Nov 23, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 11/21/09 8:00 a.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/23/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans

At 12:30pm Chicago time on 11/23/09: My resistance was 10.68, just .01 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 10.32, .07 1/2 from the actual low.

4, just .01 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 3.90, just .00 1/4 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas



10.80                                Resistance                            

10.68                                     

-------------10.50               Pivot  

10.32                         

10.11 3/4                          

 

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Up   (from last week same day)                                                 

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.56 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 26 1/2              Extremely Overbought 95%




Red bracket line near $10.50 is pivotal; downtrend line is now support near $10.12. Since downtrend line was hurdled the bulls hit their target of the red bracket line.

    Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

    I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

   In my daily numbers on Friday my pivot acted as resistance and was $.01 from the actual high; my support was $.01 1/2 from the actual low.

January Soybeans for 11/23/09

More chart comments:

Objective was met on Wednesday posting a $.46 rally from Tuesdays low. Red bracket line not only provided a good place to take profits (exit), but gave a good location if you wanted to sell. Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

Grains: Spot on numbers in both soybeans and corn on Friday!

$.59 gain in soybeans, $.21 in wheat, and 1/2 cent gain in corn for the week, in spite of much better harvest weather the next 2 weeks, rain in near term forecast in Argentina, and weak corn and wheat export numbers. Soybeans sales are running at 15.8 MMT, almost twice as much as last year's 8.2. The USDA might be greatly underestimating sales in 09/10 exports (I have said this the last 2 months), as we are entering an important time in SA growing season soon, and this could be behind the buying. But for whatever reason, they hit a wall at $10.50 last week. They closed close enough to there to be able to open above it on Monday which would be bullish. If they go down instead I believe soybeans will be well supported on pullbacks to support levels for now.

You can see for yourself clearly the bracket levels and how well they work. Go back in time and you will see that corn in the last 5 months (since 6/23/09) has only trade 1 day above $4.09 and that was $4.13 1/2. The last 2 months we have been above $3.60, the other 3 months below $3.60 down to $3.02. Prices come and go, but at certain levels speculators and end users alike find value at supports, and producers and speculators find opportunity at resistance levels to sell. Can the market keep going down or up? Yes, but for end users and producers that does not matter because once they hedge they no longer want or need to take the gamble to get a better price, and concerned that the price opportunity will disappear and they would remain in a speculative position. For the speculator he buys or sells for the opposite reason, to gamble that at that price the market will indeed be an opportunity to buy or sell. If wrong the end user or producer it really does not matter, there is no gamble, the speculator is gambling and if wrong loses money.

Corn resistance is clearly defined at $4.13 1/2 in corn, with support at the steep uptrend line at $3.80, then the bracket line support at $3.58. Why or how they get there does not matter to me. Knowing the nature of markets allows me to not to have an opinion past the point of a stop or exit point, because I do not care why I am losing, or what a market will do past my profit level. I trade by taking trades based on my charts and numbers, fundamentals for a bias, and always consider the market like a giant, and when some food drops from his mouth and lands on the ground I grab it (profits) and bring it to safety before he crushes me on his next step.

Bottom Line: Read my comments from last weekend (11/16/09) as I have the same thoughts now.

 US corn harvest progress this Monday afternoon might show only a 7 or 8% increase and still coming in slowly which is supportive. Possible double top on the daily chart is negative below $4, harvest pressure, poor exports, rain in SA, are all negative. As well as the weak performance versus soybeans and wheat. So what can stop them from going down or increase the speed downward? Correct, the funds.

A hotel chain just paid $350,000 for Michael Jackson's glove and they said they would have paid 1 million. If the estate knew that was what they would pay, they would have bid it up, but they did not know what the final bid would be and if they were wrong and the last bid was theirs, they would still own it. You do not want to be the last person to buy the rally. The funds are just like any bidder in the auction process; you never know what he is willing to pay, and just because he pays whatever he bid, does not mean that it has anything to do with value. He thinks he will be able to sell it for more in the future to someone else. When he wants to sell for profit or loss he does the same thing as in futures trading, he puts it up for sale, in futures to put it up for sale you start to offer it until you find a buyer. Keep in mind, the funds have more than 1 to buy or sell.

Soybeans have the best fundamental outlook with the strong sales to support, and a bullish chart picture, but are extremely overbought and at a chart resistance level. The dollar or outside markets did not take away from soybean strength on Friday, which to me is friendly. I have no idea what the market will do next week; I think they should erode to the downside.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

December Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/20/09

Nov 21, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 11/19/09 5:40 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/20/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Cattle

After the close on 11/20/09: My resistance was 84.07, just .07 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 83.55, just .07 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

 


85.00                       Resistance

84.07 FG

--------------83.55      Pivot

83.02                       

82.70                        2009 Low

 

      

Trend                         88.22 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....….…. Down( last week same day                                                           

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways   

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .95                    Balanced 45%  





December Cattle
for 11/20/09

The gap at $84.07 FG is resistance, red downtrend line is next near 84.60, 2009 low supports. Weekly chart support coming into play now.

In my daily numbers on Thursday; my resistance was $0.10 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was 0.07 from the actual low.  

Cattle: Numbers were spot on! Same comments as yesterday for today.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?  

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

 

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

December Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/20/09

Nov 21, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 11/19/09 5:40 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/20/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Corn

After the close on 11/20/09: My resistance was 3.97 3/4, just .01 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 3.90, just .00 1/4 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

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4.13 1/2                          Resistance near bracket line

4.05 1/2

--------------4.97 3/4              Pivot

3.90              

3.82 1/2             

 

Trend     

5 day chart....….….  Up   (from last week same day)                                                    

Daily chart   ……….Sideways          

Weekly chart …….. Down   

Monthly chart ….... Down $3.86 is the 200 day ma

ATR 13 1/2               Overbought 67%







I have been saying "Long term downtrend line is support once again. Bears target the green  (uptrend) line (3.80), bulls target red bracket line" (4.11). Middle is $3.95 1/2.

My bracket lines prove once again to not be random. What you see is not coincidence. This is another example of how the 3rd time at the line is stronger than any other time against a line (up & downtrend line included, the question becomes how much correction, but I expect more from here.

Dec. Corn for 11/20/09

The 200 day moving average is in play now.

In my daily numbers on Thursday my resistance was $.01 3/4 from the actual high; my support was $.00 3/4 from the actual low. 

Grains: Spot on numbers! The USDA also announced a sale of 116,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2009/10 this morning and this was considered supportive. This sale is in additional to a higher than expected export sales number on this morning's USDA report. Net soybean sales were 1,349,700 tonnes. Traders had been expecting total soybean sales of less than 1.0 million. Nearly 725,000 tonnes of this week's sales were to China with over 142,000 to Mexico. As of November 12, cumulative soybean sales stand at 73.3% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010 even farther above the 5 year average than last week. That average stands at 49.0%. Sales need to average just 227,000 tonnes in soybeans each week to reach the USDA forecast.

That was the excuse to open $.08 higher than where they closed electronically before the report was released. If you look at the 5 minute bar chart you will see that the market traded in 4 bars at 9:30, 9:35, 9:40, and 9:50 all with the same low of 10.24. My pivot of 10.23 3/4 after 5 minutes acts as support and was only .00 1/4 from the actual low in open outcry. I do not have time to look at all the markets I cover and see results on a 5 minute bar, but I was active trading soybeans today using my numbers and watching the 5 minute bar.

I sold soybeans at $10.46, took some small profits on some and kept one for a longer term trade. Again, if in day trading mode I would do better by covering on the close at $10.39, and the market gave me another chance to sell against my pivot resistance of 10.49 tonight since the market did take out the buy stops in thin trade and posted a high of $10.50, 10.44 last. You could say I might have missed something if they opened lower and did not look back, but remember I want to be in day trading mode thinking I can take out $.10 five times, and that would be easier than one $.50 move at this time.  It is this market at this time that I plan a strategy based on the best approach at this time. Tomorrow I could take home this short and turn into a small swing trade as well as to continue to day trade.

Yes, I would like to have more time to trade, but I am getting better at trading and doing this service at night, and talking on the phone and trading in the day session. It is like the first couple of years trading and trying to stay unemotional trying to execute whatever I was supposed to do without question or second thought. Leave the second thought in play though if your intuitiveness pays off. If you get off your plan because you "feel" or "think" (intuition), I will tell you to keep a daily journal and write down the results, otherwise when you think back a week or two you will be like a fisherman and would have more than you really did, or lost less. Keep it real. When my intuitiveness is going well I will keep it in play, but if not end it quickly. The journal helps that. The bottom line for me is that I never go against my numbers, never, but I use it to help take a profit short of the number, or get aggressive, or take a trade or not. I want to almost always take the trades at the lines though.    

I called it right last weekend (11/16) thinking corn would gravitate around $4 on expiration today. This will be like a report day if they go off the board within $.03 of $4 because the powerful funds could be setting the market up for a big surprise one way or the other. They have done this many times before and I feel this time it is ripe for that type of action. Let's say corn closes at $4.02. The $4 calls are exercised and they are now long futures at $4.00, and the $4 puts expire worthless, right? Wrong! Let's say the funds are long 8000 $4 puts, all they need to do is call their clearing firm and announce that they want to exercise their puts anyway. They can do this after the close of trading Friday. Now they are short 8000 futures at $4 and on Sunday night they offer 5000 more at let's say $3.98 on the opening and could sell 5000 that night.  When you get notified that you the seller of the put was exercised would make you long at $4 and you thought you had no position. Now you must sell because you did not want a position or even worse you wanted to go short, the pain begins! This scenario can be played in different ways but that is what I think will happen, a surprise up or down and I have no idea what it will be.  

I probably will go home with no position but if they breakdown and I am still short, I might take it home. Lastly, the SF/SX exploded this week to SF +20 over the SX; I got out the other day at +4. If I was bullish I could have stayed but I was not. Note: It is really slow when there is 2 cents between the bid and offer in the spot month SF, usually 1 cent at the most, and a 2 contract bid and offer. Almost no volume has traders leery of tomorrow's trade.

  

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

 

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/20/09

Nov 20, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 11/19/09 5:40 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/20/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans

At 12:15pm on 11/20/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 10.50, the EXACT actual high, and my support was 10.30, just .01 1/2 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

10.80                                Resistance                            

10.68                                     

-------------10.49               Pivot  

10.30                         

10.11 3/4                          

 

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Up   (from last week same day)                                                 

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.56 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 27 1/2              Overbought 89%




 

I continue to say "Red bracket line near $10.45 is resistance; downtrend line is now support near $10.12. Downtrend line was hurdled and bulls now target red bracket line (again)."

    Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

    I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

   In my daily numbers on Thursday my resistance was $.00 1/4 from the actual high; my support was $.04 1/4 from the actual low.  Actual low in open outcry was 10.24 just .00 1/4 from my pivot support. You had four 5 minute bars when it traded 10.24 in the first 25 minutes.

January Soybeans for 11/20/09

More chart comments:

Objective was met on Wednesday posting a $.46 rally from Tuesdays low. Red bracket line not only provided a good place to take profits (exit), but gave a good location if you wanted to sell. Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

Grains: Spot on numbers! The USDA also announced a sale of 116,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2009/10 this morning and this was considered supportive. This sale is in additional to a higher than expected export sales number on this morning's USDA report. Net soybean sales were 1,349,700 tonnes. Traders had been expecting total soybean sales of less than 1.0 million. Nearly 725,000 tonnes of this week's sales were to China with over 142,000 to Mexico. As of November 12, cumulative soybean sales stand at 73.3% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010 even farther above the 5 year average than last week. That average stands at 49.0%. Sales need to average just 227,000 tonnes in soybeans each week to reach the USDA forecast.

That was the excuse to open $.08 higher than where they closed electronically before the report was released. If you look at the 5 minute bar chart you will see that the market traded in 4 bars at 9:30, 9:35, 9:40, and 9:50 all with the same low of 10.24. My pivot of 10.23 3/4 after 5 minutes acts as support and was only .00 1/4 from the actual low in open outcry. I do not have time to look at all the markets I cover and see results on a 5 minute bar, but I was active trading soybeans today using my numbers and watching the 5 minute bar.

I sold soybeans at $10.46, took some small profits on some and kept one for a longer term trade. Again, if in day trading mode I would do better by covering on the close at $10.39, and the market gave me another chance to sell against my pivot resistance of 10.49 tonight since the market did take out the buy stops in thin trade and posted a high of $10.50, 10.44 last. You could say I might have missed something if they opened lower and did not look back, but remember I want to be in day trading mode thinking I can take out $.10 five times, and that would be easier than one $.50 move at this time.  It is this market at this time that I plan a strategy based on the best approach at this time. Tomorrow I could take home this short and turn into a small swing trade as well as to continue to day trade.

Yes, I would like to have more time to trade, but I am getting better at trading and doing this service at night, and talking on the phone and trading in the day session. It is like the first couple of years trading and trying to stay unemotional trying to execute whatever I was supposed to do without question or second thought. Leave the second thought in play though if your intuitiveness pays off. If you get off your plan because you "feel" or "think" (intuition), I will tell you to keep a daily journal and write down the results, otherwise when you think back a week or two you will be like a fisherman and would have more than you really did, or lost less. Keep it real. When my intuitiveness is going well I will keep it in play, but if not end it quickly. The journal helps that. The bottom line for me is that I never go against my numbers, never, but I use it to help take a profit short of the number, or get aggressive, or take a trade or not. I want to almost always take the trades at the lines though.    

I called it right last weekend (11/16) thinking corn would gravitate around $4 on expiration today. This will be like a report day if they go off the board within $.03 of $4 because the powerful funds could be setting the market up for a big surprise one way or the other. They have done this many times before and I feel this time it is ripe for that type of action. Let's say corn closes at $4.02. The $4 calls are exercised and they are now long futures at $4.00, and the $4 puts expire worthless, right? Wrong! Let's say the funds are long 8000 $4 puts, all they need to do is call their clearing firm and announce that they want to exercise their puts anyway. They can do this after the close of trading Friday. Now they are short 8000 futures at $4 and on Sunday night they offer 5000 more at let's say $3.98 on the opening and could sell 5000 that night.  When you get notified that you the seller of the put was exercised would make you long at $4 and you thought you had no position. Now you must sell because you did not want a position or even worse you wanted to go short, the pain begins! This scenario can be played in different ways but that is what I think will happen, a surprise up or down and I have no idea what it will be.  

I probably will go home with no position but if they breakdown and I am still short, I might take it home. Lastly, the SF/SX exploded this week to SF +20 over the SX; I got out the other day at +4. If I was bullish I could have stayed but I was not. Note: It is really slow when there is 2 cents between the bid and offer in the spot month SF, usually 1 cent at the most, and a 2 contract bid and offer. Almost no volume has traders leery of tomorrow's trade.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

 

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

December Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/19/09

Nov 19, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 11/18/09 5:40 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/19/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

 

December Corn

After the close on 11/19/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 4.02 1/4, just .01 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 3.90 3/4, just .00 3/4 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

4.21                                

4.13 1/2                          Resistance near bracket line

--------------4.02 1/4              Pivot

3.90 3/4             

3.82 1/2             

  Use the same numbers as used on 11/ 17 & 18 /09

Trend     

5 day chart....….….  Up                          

Daily chart   ……….Sideways          

Weekly chart …….. Down   

Monthly chart ….... Down $3.86 is the 200 day ma

ATR 14                     Overbought 74%

December Corn Chart      

 

I have been saying "Long term downtrend line is support once again. Bears target the green bracket line, bulls target red bracket line".

My bracket lines prove once again to not be random. What you see is not coincidence. This is another example of how the 3rd time at the line is stronger than any other time against a line (up & downtrend line included, the question becomes how much correction, but I expect more from here.

Dec. Corn for 11/19/09

The 200 day moving average is in play now.

In my daily numbers on Wednesday my pivot acted as resistance and was $.04 from the actual high; my support was $.04 3/4 from the actual low. 

 
Grains: Yes,I sold soybeans at $10.47 1/4 and took out a quick $.10. Normally I would have gone home short with the new high for the run at the bracket line and closing lower on the day. Why I did not and prefer to day trade is the power of fund money. For my first 27 years trading corn and soybeans it was an uncomplicated fundamental story of supply and demand, the weather, the dollar, and a few variables. I witnessed a couple of my friends start a fund nearly 30 years ago and made over 6 million in a year. This was after Richard Dennis started a fund that I believe had 50 million in trading power early on. That was big money back then. Since 2003 real money started to flow into commodities and took control of how far the pendulum swings.

Consider how small our markets are relative to other investments vehicles.  The market cap of the S & P 500 is $9.7 trillion vs. the Russell 3000 which comes in at $12.6 trillion.  The public owns $7.6 trillion in public debt while the total in money market funds comes in at $3 trillion.

Compare those financial asset totals with the approximate value at today's closes of 2009 US corn/soybean/wheat production of $52 billion/$33 billion /$12 billion respectively or slightly less than $100 billion total.  A pittance (0.33%) compared to the nearly $30 trillion in the 4 financial asset classes outlined above.  My fear is far more financial asset firepower that can be brought to bear on our relatively small ag markets in the weeks and months ahead, especially if a faltering US economy signals more dollar pressure forcing practical money managers to extend ownership in hard assets.

That is what keeps me from selling it with both hands. Yes, at times I will swing trade it for a day, or week, as long as it takes to get my target, but never risking more using a stop than what is left until the target. Example: If I am risking 15 to make 60 and now that the trade is going right making 40 there is only 20 left, I do not want to risk more than 20 to make the last 20. If I feel that there is a better chance to be stopped out before I might get the last 20, I just exit there.

Read my comments the last 2 days and see how my intuitiveness for the market and "feel" of the funds having their hands around the necks of the markets sellers, and having them "tap out" or buy stop themselves out of the market at the resistance red bracket line, instead of waiting for that area to initiate the short. That is what trade locations for me is all about. That is why I bought back my shorts last night so I can be free to sell if they did get up there, instead of having a $.20 loss and trying to manage it. If my sell did not work it would only have been a $.08 loss, not a $.28 cent loss. And when the market went back to my pivot instead of almost being even, I would have taken out $.14 profit. YOU are the trader and can take credit for what you do; I can only take credit for providing you with the best numbers possible to work with.

My comments came from seeing chart action for 35 years, and the probabilities of action given the chart "look". Knowing how markets "breathe" also helps. That is why tonight's action with my pivot holding in soybeans makes me want to wait for a rally to get short again; I never sell where my numbers tell me to buy, and so the pivot has kept me out of trouble once again. Even if I was so aggressive that I wanted to sell, they are at $10.30 as I speak and when it was at the pivot (down 3 1/4) I would have sold it instead of a bounce $.06 higher now. This saving $.06 is no different than making $.06 on a trade you have on.

Bottom Line: I feel the high for this week is in for all 3 row crops and I want to use my numbers and trade from the short side. I am more than respectful for the power of money and what it can do, and I want to continue (as always) to trade my numbers in spite of what they are doing, but trade a size when contra to what they are doing that if I am wrong it is an insignificant amount. If the trade works, the trade location made the risk reward my kind of trade that makes me the casino. They are the reason for getting the market to the location to present the opportunity. The market could be $1 higher next week and it does not matter, I might even be long then, but now we trade 1 day at a time and I am looking for a pullback to profit as was the case on Wednesday. I am not looking to brag how long I held a position or how much profit I took out on a single trade. That is like telling me about every pitch in the game, I just want to know the final score at the end of the game. In commodities trading the game ends every day at settlement, because win or lose you are ALWAYS long or short from today's settlement because that is where you could have gotten out win or lose. Overnight it turns into another trade. It does not matter if you traded well 1/2 the time, or most of the time, the game ends daily, the final score is measured weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annually. NOT on 1 trade.


Want to know what I think for tomorrow?
  

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service. 

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

 


 

 

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/19/09

Nov 19, 2009

This report was sent to subscribers on 11/18/09 5:40 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/19/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans

After the close on 11/19/09: My resistance was 10.49, just .00 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 10.11 3/4, .04 1/4 from the actual low. Note: If you look at the 5 minute bar chart you will see that the market traded in 4 bars at 9:30, 9:35, 9:40, and 9:50 all with the same low of 10.24. My pivot of 10.23 3/4 after 5 minutes acts as support and was only .00 1/4 from the actual low in open outcry. I do not have time to look at all the marketts I cover and see results on a 5 minute bar, but I was active trading soybeans today using my numbers and watching the 5 minute bar.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

 

10.49                                      Resistance                            

10.35 3/4                                      

-------------10.23 3/4              Pivot  

10.11 3/4                          

10.01

 

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Up                          

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.56 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 27                    Overbought 77%

January Soybeans Chart

I still say "Red bracket line near $10.45 is resistance; downtrend line is now support near $10.12. Downtrend line was hurdled and bulls now target red bracket line (again)."
    Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 
    I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".
In my daily numbers on Wednesday my resistance was $.04 1/4 from the actual high; my support was $.11 3/4 from the actual low. 

  January Soybeans for 11/19/09

 More chart comments:

 

Objective was met on Wednesday posting a $.46 rally from Tuesdays low. Red bracket line not only provided a good place to take profits (exit), but gave a good location if you wanted to sell. Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

Grains: Yes, I sold soybeans at $10.47 1/4 and took out a quick $.10. Normally I would have gone home short with the new high for the run at the bracket line and closing lower on the day. Why I did not and prefer to day trade is the power of fund money. For my first 27 years trading corn and soybeans it was an uncomplicated fundamental story of supply and demand, the weather, the dollar, and a few variables. I witnessed a couple of my friends start a fund nearly 30 years ago and made over 6 million in a year. This was after Richard Dennis started a fund that I believe had 50 million in trading power early on. That was big money back then. Since 2003 real money started to flow into commodities and took control of how far the pendulum swings.

Consider how small our markets are relative to other investments vehicles.  The market cap of the S & P 500 is $9.7 trillion vs. the Russell 3000 which comes in at $12.6 trillion.  The public owns $7.6 trillion in public debt while the total in money market funds comes in at $3 trillion.

Compare those financial asset totals with the approximate value at today’s closes of 2009 US corn/soybean/wheat production of $52 billion/$33 billion /$12 billion respectively or slightly less than $100 billion total.  A pittance (0.33%) compared to the nearly $30 trillion in the 4 financial asset classes outlined above.  My fear is far more financial asset firepower that can be brought to bear on our relatively small ag markets in the weeks and months ahead, especially if a faltering US economy signals more dollar pressure forcing practical money managers to extend ownership in hard assets.

That is what keeps me from selling it with both hands. Yes, at times I will swing trade it for a day, or week, as long as it takes to get my target, but never risking more using a stop than what is left until the target. Example: If I am risking 15 to make 60 and now that the trade is going right making 40 there is only 20 left, I do not want to risk more than 20 to make the last 20. If I feel that there is a better chance to be stopped out before I might get the last 20, I just exit there.

Read my comments the last 2 days and see how my intuitiveness for the market and "feel" of the funds having their hands around the necks of the markets sellers, and having them "tap out" or buy stop themselves out of the market at the resistance red bracket line, instead of waiting for that area to initiate the short. That is what trade locations for me is all about. That is why I bought back my shorts last night so I can be free to sell if they did get up there, instead of having a $.20 loss and trying to manage it. If my sell did not work it would only have been a $.08 loss, not a $.28 cent loss. And when the market went back to my pivot instead of almost being even, I would have taken out $.14 profit. YOU are the trader and can take credit for what you do; I can only take credit for providing you with the best numbers possible to work with.

My comments came from seeing chart action for 35 years, and the probabilities of action given the chart "look". Knowing how markets "breathe" also helps. That is why tonight's action with my pivot holding in soybeans makes me want to wait for a rally to get short again; I never sell where my numbers tell me to buy, and so the pivot has kept me out of trouble once again. Even if I was so aggressive that I wanted to sell, they are at $10.30 as I speak and when it was at the pivot (down 3 1/4) I would have sold it instead of a bounce $.06 higher now. This saving $.06 is no different than making $.06 on a trade you have on.

Bottom Line: I feel the high for this week is in for all 3 row crops and I want to use my numbers and trade from the short side. I am more than respectful for the power of money and what it can do, and I want to continue (as always) to trade my numbers in spite of what they are doing, but trade a size when contra to what they are doing that if I am wrong it is an insignificant amount. If the trade works, the trade location made the risk reward my kind of trade that makes me the casino. They are the reason for getting the market to the location to present the opportunity. The market could be $1 higher next week and it does not matter, I might even be long then, but now we trade 1 day at a time and I am looking for a pullback to profit as was the case on Wednesday. I am not looking to brag how long I held a position or how much profit I took out on a single trade. That is like telling me about every pitch in the game, I just want to know the final score at the end of the game. In commodities trading the game ends every day at settlement, because win or lose you are ALWAYS long or short from today's settlement because that is where you could have gotten out win or lose. Overnight it turns into another trade. It does not matter if you traded well 1/2 the time, or most of the time, the game ends daily, the final score is measured weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annually. NOT on 1 trade.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

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www.farmerhedge.com 

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/18/09

Nov 18, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 11/17/09 4:40 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/18/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans

After the close on 11/18/09: My resistance was 10.53 1/4, .04 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 10.11 3/4, .11 3/4 from the actual low.

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10.53 1/4                                 Resistance

-------------10.32 1/2                Pivot  

10.11 3/4                          

10.01

 

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Up                          

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.55 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 27 1/4              Extremely Overbought 97%


January Soybeans Chart


Red bracket line near $10.45 is resistance; downtrend line is now support near $10.12.

Downtrend line was hurdled and bulls now target red bracket line.

    

January Soybeans for 11/18/09

Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

In my daily numbers on Tuesday my resistance was $.00 3/4 from the actual high; my support was $.02 from the actual low. 

Grains: It is like I have seen this movie before, I said yesterday the story goes like this  "I think we will at least jab above the fall highs in corn only about $.10 away, and soybeans $.20, to get buy stops and see if it attracts more buying, and see if sellers reappear. I believe we are not going too much higher from there," Corn acted like it was not in the movie so going $.10 higher was not in the picture, but soybeans jabbing above their autumn high by a few cents and allowed for in my chart resistance numbers was, and the slight pullback tonight confirms the trade. I sold at the $10.17 mark on Tuesday, took out a few cents on a couple and got stopped out on 3 at $10.23. I sold again near the close at $10.30 and bought the November back at $10.26 tonight to cover the last of my bull spread (SF/SX). I sold them at +4 on the Jan, and some I bought -9.

Looks like another night of us little guys evening up their positions with no sign of fund activity. This market is really strong with all things being considered. The funds are in there buying and they are like a freight train coming down the track, but like last year they do derail and crash, and then they are taken out of service, forever. But this train has been rolling and I think it has enough steam that it wants to go a little higher. If January soybeans can close above $10.32 I think they can go $.50 higher. The funds allocate money in commodities, and when they look around at the price of gold they must think grains are cheap relative to other sectors.

Yes, we have rallied to our autumn highs, but consider 2008. Relative to fall 2008 capitulation lows, the soybean market has rallied $2.53, corn $1.12 and wheat $1.19.  Relative to 2008 highs however, the wheat market is off $5.00, soybeans are off $6.29 and corn is off $3.63. Fund managers who think that 2010 wheat global acreage is going to make 2010/2011 stocks tight is probably the main fundamental reason behind the unbelievable buying. With this price it is hard to believe wheat producers will not plant pillar to post and hedge it. Wheat does not have a good outlook fundamentally going forward, and selling wheat buying corn risking $.20 makes sense if I wanted to trade wheat (I do not) especially if I wanted to sell wheat (which I would). One of the main reasons I have not traded wheat for years is the fact the options are not really liquid, compared to the volume in corn and bean options it is almost nonexistent.
 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Germany, India, Switzerland, and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

December Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/17/09

Nov 17, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 11/16/09 5:55 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/17/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Cattle

After the close on 11/17/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 83.98, just .17 from the actual high, and my support was 83.32 FG, the EXACTactual low.

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85.42            

84.65            

--------------83.98      Pivot & 2009 Low

83.32 FG     

82.70     

 

      

Trend                         88.30 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....….….  Down                          

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways   

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .85                    Oversold 23%  

December Cattle Chart

December Cattle for 11/17/09: 

Red downtrend line is resistance at $85, recent low supports. I said "The same low in open outcry for the run two days in a row and closing above the long term downtrend line is supportive".

In my daily numbers on Monday; my resistance was $0.22 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was the 0.22 actual low.  

Cattle: Outside markets consider, the market looks pathetic. Narrow range with a struggle to move higher looks like some profit taking more than any buyers in there. Follow the numbers is how I approach, with a bias that we should correct a little further at least to the first resistance, but since action has dried up, it might take a day or two to get there. I want to see this market rally so I can get to a level to sell again, I do not have the heart to attempt to bottom pick this one. Bulls can look at an improving chart picture and only 2 cents from long term support.


Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Germany, India, Switzerland, and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/17/09

Nov 17, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 11/16/09 5:55 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/17/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans

After the close on 11/17/09: My resistance was 10.32 1/2, just .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 10.01, just .02 from the actual low. Look

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10.32 1/2                                

10.22 1/2                                

-------------10.11 3/4                Pivot  

10.01                          

  9.91

 

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Up                          

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.54 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 27                    Overbought 82%


January Soybeans Chart

Downtrend line near $10.17 is resistance, green bracket line key support coupled with the 200 day MA right there at $ $9.53 1/2. The middle of the two is support now at $9.85 now.

Bulls need to hurdle this downtrend line in order to make a run for the red bracket line.

January Soybeans for 11/17/09

Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

In my daily numbers on Monday my resistance was $.06 1/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.08 from the actual low.

Grains: The dollar was underwater, crude rallied to my resistance, stock market strong, gold on a run, CRB gaining the most in 1 day since September is the only thing you need to confirm that money is flowing into commodities.....as long as the dollar remains weak. These markets should turn over quickly if the dollar can show strength and bottoming action.

Where are we going? The dollar and money flow is the biggest factor. If the dollar continues weak I think we will at least jab above the fall highs in corn only about $.10 away, and soybeans $.20, to get buy stops and see if it attracts more buying, and see if sellers reappear. I believe we are not going too much higher from there, but on the other hand it looks like $9.70 should hold soybeans up considering light farmer movement and 4th quarter export demand. Farmers are focusing on the corn harvest, grain drying, and fall tillage.

I am a bear at these levels fundamentally and close technically. I am more reluctant to sell in this environment but would still do so at resistance levels, but I would trade fewer contracts though. 5th time at trend line for soybeans, and corn at $4 does not surprise me for the reasons I said over the weekend, but close to resistance to take a small short trade. 

Bottom Line: Next report not until January, delayed corn supports, nearing resistance levels, money flow supports, and range bound $.50 soybean market, $.30 corn market. I want to day trade and spread trade for now. I want to risk $.05 to make $.05 to $.15. I am starting to cover my long Jan beans short November10 soybeans (SF/SX). I made $1125 on them on Monday.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Germany, India, Switzerland, and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

December Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/16/09

Nov 16, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 11/14/09 8:40 a.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/16/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Corn

After the close on 11/16/09: My resistance was 4.03, just .00 1/2 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 3.90 1/2, just .00 1/4 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

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4.03                                

3.98 3/4                              

--------------3.90 1/2              Pivot

3.82 1/2              

3.77 3/4

     Use the same numbers as used on 11/13/09

Trend     

5 day chart....….….  Up                          

Daily chart   ……….Sideways          

Weekly chart …….. Down   

Monthly chart ….... Down $3.86 is the 200 day ma

ATR 15 1/4               Balanced 66%


December Corn Chart    
  


I have been saying "Long term downtrend line is support once again. Bears target the green bracket line, bulls target red bracket line".

I said "Higher high for the run with a lower close bodes well for more corrective action. Strong support at the crisscross of up & downtrend lines at $3.71".

Dec. Corn for 11/16/09

The 200 day moving average is in play now.

In my daily numbers on Friday my resistance was $.04 from the actual high; my support was $.03 from the actual low.

Grains: I could talk about fungus in corn that have annoyed elevators for weeks but now has become a market focus rallying corn. Less corn to feed means a switch to soybean meal, and at this time how much has been or will be switched is unknown. This reversal of buy beans sell corn is the opposite of what the report on November 10th implied, buying corn and selling soybeans. The market is always open to changes in fundamentals as well as outside markets. That is why I do not care what drives a market to a price level; I just care about the opportunities at bracket lines, and trend lines no matter the reasons.

What caused the rally Friday morning? Net sales for soybeans came in at a whopping 1.272 million tonnes (about double than what was expected) which included 961,200 tonnes sold to China. As of November 5, cumulative soybean sales stand at 69.5% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010, far above the 5 year average of 45.8%. Sales need to average just 253,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. If not for this export sales report that came out Friday morning before the open due to the holiday week (normally comes out Thursday) I believe we would have opened lower. This was the final news event that should have pushed it higher for the day, but when near resistance there was not much left on the table.

With that being said, soybeans started the week from the supportive green bracket line and rallied strongly but Friday when close to the downtrend line, profit taking and short selling was in order. Why? Like I have told you for the 2 years of my service, grain markets move quickly from 1 bracket line to another based on events that cause the movement. What took weeks to move a price now takes days. Bearish report for soybeans closed them on the support bracket (which would turn into a resistance bracket line if below) last Friday, rallied to the downtrend line and near enough with nice profits in hand for the bulls to take profits. I am trying to explain how markets "breathe". Even if the market wants to go higher, this exhaling action is normally seen versus the action of breaking through the downtrend line, especially coming from where they were to start the week.    

Where do we go from here? Pressure should come from harvest moving along, the dollar is digging its feet in the sand, Russian wheat is now $.90 cheaper than US wheat, and crude oil is breaking down. But the charts are balanced and both corn and soybeans look to continue to trade between the red bracket lines for resistance and the green bracket line for support. I did not like the lower close in soybeans on Friday, but I liked the way corn closed above their 200 day MA. I want to day trade these markets with a bearish bias. I covered all but 5 SF/SX10 bull spreads. I covered some of my SF/SK at 6 cents the low. I have no other position in corn and soybeans now. December corn options go off the board this Friday and $4 could act as a magnet, because so many calls and puts are using this strike price and markets like to trade where the "paper" is. 

 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are November soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Germany, India, Switzerland, and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

December Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/11/09

Nov 11, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 11/10/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/11/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Cattle (electronic)

After the close on 11/11/09: My support was 83.40, just 0.05 from the actual low, and my pivot acted as resistance and was 84.75, just 0.10 from the actual high.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this the second year of service has almost tripled my subscriber base, nearly doubling in the last 6 months.

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86.35 FG                           

85.42            

--------------84.75      Pivot

84.07 FG                                      

83.40                         2009 Low

 

      

Trend                         88.42 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....….….  Down                          

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways   

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .92                  Extremely Oversold 6%  

December Cattle Chart


December Cattle (elec) for 11/11/09: 

I said for weeks "The gap at 88.47 will be major resistance when coupled with the 200 day moving average at 88.57".

I still say "Downtrend line near 86.60 (now 85.60) is resistance, the gap at 84.07 supports". Notice how this was perfect resistance last Wednesday.

  In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my pivot acted as resistance and was $0.20 from the actual high, it also acted as support and was $0.50 from the actual low. This tells me that the market is looking for further direction.

Cattle: I covered my spreads for a healthy profit on both the shorts that I spread off buying the J, and making 1.35 on each. Support will be found at the $84.07 gap I have projected for quite awhile, and if it closes below there the market could be in for more trouble. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are November soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Germany, India, Switzerland, and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

November Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/10/09

Nov 10, 2009


This report was sent to subscribers on 11/9/09 4:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/10/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

November Soybeans

After the close on 11/10/09: My support was 9.45, just .01 cent from the actual low, and my pivot acted as  resistance and was 9.61 1/2,  .06 3/4 from the actual high.

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9.95                                 near downtrend line

9.78 XX                             

-------------9.61 1/2                Pivot  

9.45 XX                          

9.30 1/4                           

 

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Down                         

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.47 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 27 1/2              Balanced 44%

November Soybeans Chart

Downtrend line near $9.90 is resistance, green bracket line is now pivotal; 200 day MA is support, bearish report targets orange bracket line. Bullish report targets downtrend lines.

"This is another example of the power of the 3rd time at the trend line being in this case a downtrend line, strong resistance. Selling against this line using a tight stop let's say a $.05 buy stop, rewards you over $.20 by the close, a very nice day trade. If this type of trade works only 1/2 the time, you are definitely the casino getting odds instead of the player betting this line will not hold first time at it.    

This downtrend also held the 4th time at the line last week, and was another opportunity to sell this line with a tight buy stop above for a nice profit again".

November Soybeans for 11/10/09

Many reasons this year for the swings in price, aided by the late start to the growing season and a normal frost, when a later than normal frost was needed to optimize yield. Rain delays are credited for the support, as well as the weak $. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green and orange are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

In my daily numbers on Monday my resistance was $.06 1/2 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.03 from the actual low. 

Grains: Report after the close showed 75% of all the soybeans have been harvested, up from 51% last week, and compared to the 5 year average of 92% and last year's 91%. Corn is 37% harvested, up from 25% last week, and compared to the 5 year average of 82% and last year's 69%.

Grains gained almost all of the recent losses on a day where the basis is falling, elevators are clogged, dryer forecast for the week ahead, but the freefall in the dollar is what money managers have their eye on.

Bottom line for tomorrow's crop report, the trade is expecting corn production of 12.955 million bushels with a 163.7 yield. Soy production is expected to total 3.269 billion bushels with a 42.7 yield. These average guesses represent a decline in corn production and a slight increase in soybean production. I am thinking we will see a bearish report considering this: history of the trade's track record in estimating USDA Nov corn production show that USDA's Nov forecast has exceeded the trade average in 5 of the last 7 years and the final corn production has exceeded USDA's Nov forecast in 5 of the last 7 years as well. Meanwhile, USDA Nov soy production has exceeded the average trade guess in 6 of the last 8 and that Nov to final soy production has advanced in 5 of the last 8 years. Corn production probably will not show what is out there until the January numbers, with harvest so far behind now. Nobody really knows what is going to come out, but I am sure there will be much second guessing no matter the numbers.

It will be more important to me how the market reacts to the news than the news itself. If it is a bearish report and the funds are in there buying, it will prove to me that the fundamentals have lost control, and the money flow is the name of the game for now.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are November soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Germany, India, Switzerland, and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such  
 

USDA Report on 11/10/09

Nov 10, 2009




 Corn Production Down 1 Percent from October Forecast             
            Soybean Production Up 2 Percent                        
            Cotton Production Down 4 Percent                       
                                                                               
Corn production is forecast at 12.9 billion bushels, down 1 percent from last month
 but 7 percent higher than 2008.  Based on conditions as of November 1,
yields are expected to average 162.9 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from
October but 9.0 bushels above last year.  Despite the drop in yield from
October, this yield will be the highest on record if realized.  Total
production will be second highest on record, only behind 2007.  Within the
Corn Belt, forecasted yields in Minnesota and Wisconsin increased, while
Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan yields decreased.   
                                                                               
Soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.32 billion bushels, up
2 percent from the October forecast and up 12 percent from last year.  Based
on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 43.3 bushels per
acre, up 0.9 bushel from last month and up 3.6 bushels from 2008.  If
realized, this will be the highest U.S. yield on record.  Compared with last
month, yields are forecast higher or unchanged in all States except Arkansas,
Georgia, Iowa, Mississippi, and Texas.  Increases of 3 bushels are expected
in Delaware, Indiana, Kansas, and Maryland.  The largest decrease in yield
from the October forecast is expected in Mississippi where excessive rain
during October hindered yield expectations.  If realized, the forecasted
yield in Alabama, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will be
a record high and the forecasted yield in Georgia, Maryland, and North
Carolina will tie the previous record high.  Area for harvest in the U.S. is
forecast at 76.6 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 3 percent
from 2008.
                                                                               
All Cotton production is forecast at 12.5 million 480-pound bales, down
4 percent from last month and down 2 percent from last year.  Upland cotton
production is forecast at 12.1 million 480-pound bales, down 4 percent from
last month and down 2 percent from last year.  Forecasted yield in the Delta
region decreased due to continual wet weather.  Texas producers expect lower
yields due to the effects of the cool, wet weather on the late planted crop. 
Upland growers in Georgia, North Carolina, and Oklahoma are expecting record
high yields.  The American-Pima production forecast, at 367,000 bales, was
carried forward from the August 2009 forecast.


OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are
projected at 8.8 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month as
larger supplies are only partly offset by increased exports. 
Oilseed crush is almost unchanged as a small increase for
soybeans is offset by a reduction for cottonseed.  Total U.S.
oilseed production is projected at 97.8 million tons, up 1.7
million from last month due to higher soybean production. 
Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.319 billion
bushels, up 69 million from last month.  The soybean yield is
projected at a record 43.3 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels
from the previous estimate.  Soybean exports are raised 20
million bushels to 1.325 billion due to increased supplies and
increased global import demand, mainly for China, EU-27, and
Russia.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 270 million
bushels, up 40 million from last month.

Prices for soybeans and products are projected higher for
2009/10, reflecting higher corn and soybean futures prices. 
The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at
$8.20 to $10.20 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the
range.  The soybean meal price is projected at $250 to $310
per short ton, up 5 dollars on both ends of the range.  The
soybean oil price range is projected at 33 to 37 cents per
pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 428.9
million tons, up 3.6 million from last month.  Increased soybean
and rapeseed production are only partly offset by lower
sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanut production.  Global
soybean production is projected higher with increases for the
United States, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. 
Brazil soybean production is projected at a record 63 million
tons, up 1 million from last month due to an expected increased
harvested area.  Argentina soybean production is raised 0.5
million tons to 53 million due to increased area as producers
shift additional area to soybeans from sunflowerseed. 
Argentina sunflowerseed production is reduced due to lower
planted area resulting from dry conditions during the planting
season.  Global rapeseed production is projected higher as
increased production for EU-27 is only partly offset by a
reduction for Canada.  Other changes include higher
sunflowerseed production for Ukraine and EU-27, and lower
cottonseed production for China.

Global oilseed stocks for 2009/10 are raised 3.1 million tons to
69.0 million.  Increased soybean stocks for Brazil, the United
States, and China account for most of the change.  Rapeseed
stocks for Canada, EU-27, and India are also increased.  China
soybean imports are raised for 2008/09 and 2009/10 to 41.1
million and 40.5 million tons, respectively.  Soybean exports for
2009/10 are raised for Brazil and Argentina.  Global vegetable
oil stocks are projected 1 million tons higher due to increases in
soybean oil stocks for Brazil, China, and India, and increased
palm oil stocks for China and Malaysia.


WHEAT:  U.S. wheat supplies for 2009/10 are reduced 4
million bushels this month with small downward revisions to
hard red spring wheat and durum production.  Exports are
projected 25 million bushels lower based on the slow pace
of export sales and shipments and increased competition
from major Black Sea exporters.  U.S. ending stocks for
2009/10 are projected 21 million bushels higher.  Ending
stocks would be a 10-year high at the projected 885 million
bushels.  The projected marketing-year average farm price
range is narrowed 10 cents on both ends of the range to
$4.65 to $5.05 per bushel.  Recent gains in futures prices
have supported farm gate prices while limiting export
opportunities for U.S. wheat.

Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 1.7 million
tons higher as increased production more than offsets a
reduction in beginning stocks.  Foreign production is raised
3.9 million tons with most of the increase in FSU-12 as an
extended growing season and favorable harvest weather
boosted yields.  Production is raised 2.0 million tons each
for Kazakhstan and Russia as harvest results indicate
higher yields for spring wheat.  Ukraine production is raised
0.5 million tons reflecting late season revisions to winter
wheat yields.  Production is raised 0.8 million tons for Syria
as increased use of irrigation raised yields.  Chile production
is also raised 0.3 million tons on higher reported area. 
Production is lowered 1.1 million tons for EU-27 with
reductions for France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain
more than offsetting small increases elsewhere.  Production
is also lowered 0.5 million tons for Canada as above normal
precipitation and below normal temperatures during October
delayed harvesting and raised the potential for field losses,
particularly in northern Saskatchewan.

Global wheat trade for 2009/10 is projected higher this
month.  Imports are raised for EU-27, Israel, South Korea,
Syria, Turkey, Bangladesh, and China more than offsetting
reductions for Chile and Angola.  Higher exports for Russia,
up 1.5 million tons, and Kazakhstan and Ukraine, each up
0.5 million tons, are partly offset by reductions for EU-27
and Canada, down 1.0 and 0.5 million tons, respectively. 
Abundant supplies of low-priced Black Sea wheat are
expected to limit export opportunities for the traditional
exporting countries including Canada, EU-27, and the
United States.  Global consumption is raised with increased
wheat feeding expected in Russia, Israel, South Korea, and
Morocco.  Global ending stocks are projected 1.5 million
tons higher as the increase in world output more than
offsets lower carryin and the relatively small increase in
consumption. 

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/10
are projected lower this month reflecting lower forecast corn
production.  Corn production is forecast 97 million bushels
lower with a 1.3-bushel-per-acre reduction in the forecast
yield.  U.S. corn exports are projected 50 million bushels
lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments in
recent weeks and prospects for increased competition from
larger Black Sea corn and wheat supplies.  U.S. corn ending
stocks are projected down 47 million bushels.  The 2009/10
marketing-year average farm price projection is raised 20
cents on each end of the range to $3.25 to $3.85 per
bushel.  Barley ending stocks are raised 5 million bushels
mostly reflecting a drop in projected exports based on the
slow pace of sales and shipments to date.  Reflecting the
higher expected corn price, marketing-year average farm
prices are projected higher for sorghum, barley, and oats. 

Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected 2.0
million tons lower, as reduced corn beginning stocks and
production are only partly offset by higher EU-27 mixed
grain, barley, and oat production, and higher Kazakhstan
barley production.  Global corn beginning stocks for 2009/10
are lowered 0.9 million tons mostly reflecting higher 2008/09
feed use for EU-27 and higher food, seed, and industrial
use for South Africa.  Global corn production for 2009/10 is
lowered 2.8 million tons with reduced production for the
United States, Brazil, EU-27, Russia, Venezuela, and
Canada only partly offset by increases for South Africa and
Ukraine.  Brazil production is reduced 1.0 million tons on
lower expected area.  Production is lowered 0.4 million tons
for EU-27 and 0.3 million tons each for Russia and
Venezuela.  Production is raised 1.0 million tons for South
Africa as producer intentions indicate higher planted area
and abundant early season rains support timely planting. 
Ukraine production is raised 1.0 million tons on higher
reported yields.

World coarse grain trade is projected slightly lower for
2009/10 mostly reflecting reduced prospects for U.S. corn
and barley exports.  Barley exports are also reduced for the
EU-27, down 0.2 million tons.  Partly offsetting is a 1.0-
million-ton increase in Ukraine corn exports. Corn imports
are lowered 0.3 million tons for Israel with higher expected
wheat feeding.  Barley imports are lowered 0.2 million tons
for Jordan with lower expected feeding.  Global coarse grain
ending stocks are lower this month with a 3.8-million-ton
reduction in world corn stocks.  Much of the decrease is
based on this month’s U.S. changes, however, other major
reductions in 2009/10 corn ending stocks are projected for
EU-27, down 1.7 million tons, and Brazil, down 0.8 million
tons.  Barley ending stocks are projected higher for EU-27
and Kazakhstan, up 1.1 million tons and 0.4 million tons,
respectively.

SUGAR:  Special note: Historically, the Sweetener Market Data
(SMD) published by the Farm Service Agency (FSA) contains
Amiscellaneous@ use, including values for intra-industry sales less
receipts, refining losses, and residual inventory adjustments reported by
sugarbeet and sugarcane processors and cane sugar refiners.  The
September 2009 SMD explains a new method of estimating imported
refined sugar in an effort to reduce an increasingly large negative SMD
miscellaneous use. FSA will apply the new method to SMD data
beginning with 2009/10.  In order to maintain consistency across years,
the AFood@ and AMiscellaneous@ categories for U.S. sugar use in the
WASDE report are combined for 2007/08, 2008/09, and 2009/10.

Projected 2009/10 U.S. sugar supply is increased 180,000
tons, raw value, from last month.  Lower production is more
than offset by higher beginning stocks and higher imports from
Mexico.  Beet sugar production is reduced 300,000 tons based
on lower forecast sugarbeet production and lower projected
sugar recovery.  Cane sugar production is lowered 12,000 tons
based on processor reports of lower harvest area in Hawaii and
forecast lower sugarcane production in Texas.  Despite higher
forecast sugarcane yields in Louisiana, sugar production is
unchanged due to excessive rains during harvest, reducing
anticipated sugar recovery.  Sugar use is unchanged.

Ending stocks for 2008/09 are increased 227,000 tons from last
month=s estimate, according to final SMD data.  With a small
reduction in final total supply, total use is reduced 251,000
tons, reflecting mostly lower combined food and miscellaneous
uses.

For Mexico, 2009/10 domestic sugar use is lowered 240,000
metric tons, raw value, while exports are raised by the same
amount.  The lower use of sugar in Mexico results from
updated analysis of macroeconomic factors affecting per capita
sweetener use.


RICE:  U.S. rice production in 2009/10 is forecast at 218.2
million cwt, 2.4 million below last month due to a decrease in
yield.  Average yield is estimated at 7,038 pounds per acre,
down 77 pounds from last month.  Harvested area is
unchanged at 3.10 million acres.  Long-grain rice production is
lowered 1.7 million cwt to 152.5 million, while combined
medium- and short-grain production is down 0.7 million to 65.7
million.  Imports, domestic and residual use, and exports are
unchanged from a month ago.  Ending stocks are projected at
44.2 million cwt, down 2.4 million from last month and the
largest stocks since 1986/87.

The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.85 to
$14.85 per cwt, up $0.85 per cwt on both ends of the range. 
The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at
$12.50 to $13.50 per cwt, up $0.75 per cwt on each end of the
range.  The combined medium- and short-grain farm price
range is projected at $18.00 to $19.00 per cwt, up $0.50 per
cwt on each end.  The increase in prices is based on monthly
farm prices reported by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS) through mid-October and a number of other
factors including the expectation that world prices will continue
to be supported by increased trade prospects in India and the
Philippines.  A smaller U.S. crop will also be supportive. 
Additionally, the higher prices are supported in part by the
prospects for lower production in South America, principally in
Brazil and Uruguay.  Continuing Egyptian export restrictions are
also contributing to higher prices, particularly for medium-grain
rice.  The weakening dollar is also contributing to higher
commodity prices.

Global 2009/10 rice production and consumption are lowered
from a month ago, while imports are raised.  World production
is forecast at 432.1 million tons, down 1.6 million from last
month due mainly to decreases for Brazil, India, the Philippines,
and the United States.  India’s 2009/10 crop is projected at 83.0
million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and the smallest
crop since 1997/98.  Global consumption is lowered from a
month ago due mainly to decreases for India and the
Philippines.  The 2009/10 import projection is raised 860,000
tons, mainly due to larger imports for Afghanistan, Brazil, India,
and the Philippines.  Global ending stocks for 2009/10 are
projected at 85.9 million tons, nearly the same as last month,
but a decrease of 4.8 million from the 2008/09 estimate. 

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Total U.S. meat
production for 2009 is raised as fourth-quarter pork and beef
production is forecast higher on larger-than-expected October
output.  Broiler production is raised due to higher-than-
expected third-quarter production; forecast fourth-quarter
production is unchanged from last month.  Turkey production is
decreased on weaker third-quarter production, and forecast
lower fourth-quarter slaughter.  Egg production is little changed.

Meat production for 2010 is lowered from last month as higher
forecast beef production due to larger feedlot placements in
2009 is more than offset by lower forecasts for broilers and
turkey.  Broiler and turkey hatchery data points to a smaller
than previously forecast expansion in 2010.

Red meat and poultry export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are
raised.  Beef exports are forecast higher for the last half of
2009 and for 2010 on a weak dollar outlook, and improved
economic outlook next year.  Poultry exports are raised for
third-quarter 2009.  Import forecasts for beef for both 2009 and
2010 are reduced reflecting lower expected beef supplies in
Oceania. 

Cattle price forecasts are unchanged for 2009 and 2010.  The
hog price forecast is raised for fourth quarter 2009, but is
unchanged for 2010.  Broiler prices are lowered for 2009 and
2010.  The egg price forecast is increased slightly for 2009 as
fourth-quarter prices have been higher than expected but the
forecast is unchanged for 2010.

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Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are November soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Germany, India, Switzerland, and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390


Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

December Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/6/09

Nov 06, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 11/5/09 4:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/6/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Cattle

After the close on 11/5/09: My support was 85.25, .35 from the actual low, and my pivot acted as resistance and was 86.55, .25 from the actual high.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this the second year of service has almost tripled my subscriber base, nearly doubling in the last 6 months.

Do yourself a favor and subscribe to the same daily numbers I use trading an actual $1 million dollar fund account.

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87.85             

--------------86.55      Pivot

85.25                                      

84.07 FG                                      

  Use the same numbers as used on 11/5/09

      

Trend                         88.52 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....….….  Sideways                        

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways   

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR 1.02                  Balanced 46%  



December Cattle (elec) for 11/6/09: 

The gap at 88.47 will be major resistance when coupled with the 200 day moving average at 88.57.

 I still say "Downtrend line near 86.60 is (now pivotal), the gap at 84.07 supports".

Notice how this was perfect resistance on Wednesday.

In my daily numbers on Thursday; my resistance and was $0.22 from the actual high, my pivot also acted as support and was $0.45 from the actual low. This tells me the market is looking for the next direction.

Cattle: I am still short, but will cover if it closes above the pivot today. No thoughts for today, flip a coin.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow

 The 9 markets now covered daily are November soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Germany, India, Switzerland, and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

December Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 11/2/09

Nov 02, 2009

 



This report was sent to subscribers on 10/31/09 8:00 a.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/2/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Cattle

After the close on 11/2/09: My pivot acted as support and was 85.25, just .15 from the actual low, and my resistance was 86.42, just .17 from the actual high. Look at my comments though and you will see I thought the gap support would hold and we would go 1/2 way up to the resistance at 1091.50, only .25 (1 tick) from the actual high.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this the second year of service has almost tripled my subscriber base, nearly doubling in the last 6 months.

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87.00              crisscross up & down trend lines 

86.42             

--------------85.25      Pivot

84.07 FG                                      

 

 

      

Trend                         88.62 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....….….  Down                      

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways   

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .92                    Oversold 16%  

 December Cattle Chart

 

The gap at 88.47 will be major resistance when coupled with the 200 day moving average at 88.65.

Downtrend line near 86.90 is resistance, the gap at 84.07 supports.

 In my daily numbers on Friday; my resistance was $0.40 from the actual high,

 Cattle: Numbers have been good, market oversold, looking for support. The pivot will act as good support Monday if above, but longer term bulls should have a sell stop below the gap at 84.07. I like the idea of selling near 86.60 with a buy stop above 87.00 to protect.

Late Friday I loaded my "market maker" CME platform (EOS) with cattle futures and found out what you livestock traders already know, they do more contract daily volume electronically than they trade in the pit. I loaded only a couple of options one of my producers have on and seen a market being made but no trades in those strike prices. I also noted it trades long after the open outcry closes. The EOS platform allows me to put in any option strategy, with any option strikes I want to use, and do a "RFQ" a request for a quote, and everyone can see that in the system, and a market maker or anyone else, can put out a bid and offer. You can enter a real bid and/or offer and everyone knows it is there. Not like in the pit where only the floor broker and the locals (floor traders) know it is there (your order). I will pursue this next week as I do have a few cattle and hog producers on my hedge book, and we use the options to hedge, and keep you informed on what I learn.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are November soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

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Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 


December Cattle for 11/2/09: 

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