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May 2010 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

July Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 5/28/10

May 28, 2010


This report was sent to subscribers on 5/27/10 6:20 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/28/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

July Soybeans

After the close on 5/28/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 9.53 3/4, just .02 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 9.36, just .00 1/2 from the actual low.

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We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

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9.76 XX            Buy Stops Above here

9.71 1/2              Key resistance at the downtrend line

-------------9.53 3/4        Pivot

9.36                              

9.20                     Key Support at bracket line

    

Trend                  

5 day chart...      Up from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   …. Sideways                   

Weekly chart …Sideways           

Monthly chart   Sideways $9.81 1/4 is the 200 DMA

ATR 14 1/4        Overbought 88%



In the middle of the bracket line support at $9.20 and downtrend line resistance at $9.70. The uptrend line near $9.46 is pivotal.

July Soybeans for 5/28/10: 

In my daily numbers on Thursday; my resistance was .01 1/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .00 1/4 from the actual low.

Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player.  

Grains: Spot on soybean numbers and corn resistance, corn support was accurate. Now that corn is extremely overbought and soybeans overbought, a pullback is in order going into the 3 day holiday weekend. Tonight grains are a little softer as I write. Not much happened this week as far as price is concerned, and I look for a normal trading day today. Strong corn sales but not soybeans or wheat lent support on Thursday.

I do not care what the PRC buys this year if the weather continues its path to record yields that would more than offset the purchases. I am sure grain traders will be watching weather forecasts when we begin trading on Monday night, and the bears will be watching for the northern Midwest for rain, and the rain in parts of the south. Nothing has changed in my fundamental thoughts, in 2 or 3 weeks the bears will be showing their claws if ideal weather persists. Until then the market should continue in a sideways trading pattern.

July Soybeans for 5/27/10: 

Grains: Spot on and accurate grain numbers. More sideways trade and position adjusting going into the 3 day holiday weekend. Corn is a little softer tonight as I write, and my thoughts remain the same thinking the next 2 weeks will see corn trade in a range $.15 above or below the current price. Same thoughts in soybeans with $9.55 and $9.70 being resistance, and $9.20 and $9 should be good support in July soybeans.

You can spin the fundamentals to your liking,  I told you clearly what fundamentals I look at, why I think the fundamentals are bearish, the what is now, and the what if's if any happen. I told you I am more concerned how a market reacts to the news than the news itself. 

July Soybeans for 5/26/10: 

Grains: Spot on soybean and corn numbers! Soybeans are nearing bracket line support at extremely oversold conditions which bodes well for a corrective bounce soon. Market is firm in the night session trade as I write. Corn had its rally and now is seeing a pullback, and since the market is balanced, it could go either way today, and corn is up tonight.

The market is still faced with uncertainty about what production will be this year, but the next 2 weeks the bears could not ask for better weather. For now, funds and producers are able to wait it out and they are counting on the fact of the odds in their favor for some type of weather concern to get a rally during the growing season. When they do start selling it will not be speculative and have the need to buy back, but rather it will be to liquidate speculative positions and producers selling grain to empty bins and receiving cash. This should cap rallies and aggravate selloffs.  

My thoughts are the same as before, corn should go sideways, and soybeans are trending lower and warrant selling rallies.

July Soybeans for 5/25/10: 

Grains: Spot on soybean numbers and corn resistance, support was not in play. You had all day to sell against the pivot as they traded at $3.72 most of the day. I would have swing traded it overnight looking for a retest of $3.59 support. I would have risked 3 1/4 cents to make 13 if right.

Tonight the market reacts to the bearish crop production report and is shaving a few cents off of soybeans and corn. I have the same bearish thoughts as always. Funds hold 49% of the soybean open interest (total contracts) and 42% of the corn. I can only think of their positions like betting a long shot of the chance of poor weather with odds of $1 higher in soybeans and $.50 in corn if they are right (unless a major yield shortfall) and they probably are defending the $3.53 level in July corn and $8.80 in July soybeans as a line in the sand for risk tolerance. I think the odds should be at least double what I see as being offered for their trade idea, and at this time I consider the upside a "sucker bet" and would use a known risk strategy to sell as they rally this year.

Bears like me will wait about 3 more weeks from now with a good forecast before serious selling will be on my cards. Before then I will continue to want to sell at a resistance for a day trade, keep short swing positions at these levels and look to take profits at support levels. My continuing commentary has been spot on looking for a sideways trading affair with the same parameters I have had for weeks if not months. As a trader of grains for decades, this was not hard to predict based on the timetable that Mother Nature gives us for a growing season. Knowing how the market breathes, with supply my main focus for how I approach the growing season, and the endless year after year crop scares that but only a few years turn in a shortfall in expected production that alters price. I am fully aware of the January "Final USDA Report" can be a game changer, and when it is the market discovers the next price level quickly. March, May and June can be game changers too. But my focus on supply I have learned is the gas pedal on rallies. When you have burdensome supplies the production shortfall rallies are limited and like having your foot to the floor on a Hugo, but when supplies are less than adequate and the same production disappears, it is more like when I put my corvette in second gear and doing zero to 60 in 4 seconds flat (stock out of the factory).

Bottom line was always the same as now, I use the chart for trade location, and the numbers are the street address when I am close. The fact of gaining experience on the fundamentals for use in direction is one thing, the mere fact that you gain experience from looking at the charts and practice through trading the discipline it takes to execute whatever your approach, money management, or time frame is more valuable.

Results for 5/24/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .02 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .02 1/2 from actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .00 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .04 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.27 from the actual high; my support was 0.47 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 8.00 from the actual high; my support was 2.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 0.90 from the actual high; my support was 0.20 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .09 from the actual high; my support was .11 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 9 from the actual high; my support was 13 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .043 from the actual high; my support was .034 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .10 actual high; my support was .50 from the actual low. 

July Soybeans for 5/24/10: 

Grains: Accurate grain numbers. More sales to the PRC is the only thing I can see fundamentally that was supportive, and technically corn posted gains of $.06, wheat $.00 1/2, and soybeans lost $.12 1/2 on the week.

Corn is in the middle of their 2 month trade range between the bracket lines. July soybeans are $1.18 lower than when they started 2010 and the bears look to test the bracket line support at $9.20 next. Any rally in soybeans on the heels of corn should be capped at $9.70. Corn needs to close above $3.87 1/2 in order to turn the chart friendly. They held their lows once again at the bracket line support (another example of why I use bracket line support) and have $.15 either way (up or down) to get to a bracket line.

Same fundamentals as last week that I consider bearish except for the PRC factor which is impossible to predict. Funds positions are basically in a holding pattern awaiting further clues as the rest of us. Ag markets held up well last week considering the good weather and outside markets that probably held grains from doing better.

Bottom Line this week is as I said in my comments for Friday, corn having a good day on Friday could embolden the bulls to mount a charge to test the $3.85 level, and if they do that they could drag soybeans to test $9.70. I want to trade the numbers without bias for day trading, and I want to sell corn and soybeans at the resistance levels.

July Soybeans for 5/21/10: 

I will be back in Chicago this Saturday, and then I will return to a timelier schedule. I will try and get part 1 out on Friday for this Monday 5/24/10.

Grains: Spot on soybean and corn numbers. Another day of bullish fundamentals did little to ‘float the boat" until late in the open outcry session when prices recovered to post small gains. I feel the same as I did yesterday, "market reporters" such as commission house salesmen, and analysts continue to spin the "bullish side" of the story, while I concentrate that we could get a 166 to 170 bushel per acre corn yield this year which would certainly cause grain prices to work much lower from here if realized.

I am not saying that we cannot work a little higher; I just do not want to bet on that, instead I want to wait patiently and see if I could add to a short position on a rally near a resistance level. I feel since the bulls cannot ignore the bearish fundamentals, any rally will be short lived. Today the bulls put another wrong tilt on the forecasted 90 degree temperatures forecasted for the Midwest, saying it is a precursor for possible hot dry weather moving forward. That might be true but it is still a "what if" not a "what is". The "what is" for me when I look at this forecast is just what the Doctor ordered. We NEED this weather next week considering the cool wet conditions that has slowed development.

Whatever the fundamental picture is and the current why the market moves up or down is always secondary to my charts and my numbers. While the bulls spin the cup ½ full, I consider it ½ empty.

Technicians might look at the lower prices for the run and a higher close as a key reversal, but I know better and know that all it means is that it should follow through the next day. (As I pointed out recently on 3 markets with the same signal in which in fact they all continued the direction for at least the next day) What the bulls need is a significant up day on Friday to embolden them and throw a caution flag to the shorts.

I want to day trade from the short side when possible, and continue a longer term short position that takes profits at supports on some of it and look to re-sell on a $.10 rally in corn or $.20 rally in soybeans.

Producers in the US and S. America I think are making a mistake by not selling what they have grown. I was told that most hedging services are telling their producers this week to finish selling the 2009 crop, are they joking? I recommended that ALL your crop be fully hedged by the January 2010 USDA report, and warned all un-hedged positions have more to lose than gain. I also wrote in my daily newsletter many times, a way to have your upside using options instead of futures to "own" some upside if they rally, risking only a minimum amount if wrong, instead of the huge losses they would have seen with futures or "cash" from un-hedged grain. Even if corn was $.30 higher from here and soybeans $.50 higher from here, you would be deeply underwater from where you could have hedged, and worse than that it is still un-hedged and you are faced with the same question, where am I going to hedge? The same option strategy I recommended for producers could have been used by speculators who wanted the downside, or the upside if bullish, both having a known risk and reward, and known margin if any.

Even if corn and soybeans were $.20 higher or more right now than in January, was it really worth the money if you had to wait until now to earn that? What do you think, the farmers of both countries who did not sell are using hedge strategies that allow for the upside but protect from the downside? I think not. I have little respect for almost all services I have seen, the pure "I think grain prices will be ...... and hedge 20% of your crop here, and % there, and more there, but when the market goes down instead, it is the farmer who loses money, not them. These archaic strategies were made for markets when I first started trading grains, but do not come close to the flexibility options strategies provide. I think the main reason they shy away from using options is the lack of knowledge on how to use them and not have them use you. Most of my producers have learned more from me than what any of their previous services representatives know about options. I always thought that hedge services had someone calling the shots with somewhat the experience I have, but it does not appear to be anyone who does. Even an 8 year old can tell you who they think will win a game or which way grain prices will go, and you think they have a 50/50% chance because it can only result in 1 or the other, but the casino's and bookmakers will tell you they do not.

In my mind unsold grain held by producers is bearish, I cannot see the reason for US farmers to be outright long unsold grain, but at least the farmers in S. America are waiting for the currency to devalue soon and therefore holding onto a dollar denominated commodity.

July Soybeans for 5/20/10: 

Grains: Spot on corn numbers and soybean resistance, soybean support was accurate. Every fundamental that was supportive did nothing in the "real world" of price discovery on Wednesday, while my daily numbers could care less in what drives the market. Another disappointing day for the bulls and a good day for a trader like me who wants to sell resistance for a day trade. Funds look like they are playing poker with nothing in their hands, but have most of the money on the table and want to bluff. They really would like to get some cards to play with (adverse weather or new PRC purchases) and as long as there are more cards to be dealt (more time to pollination) they continue to bluff with a losing hand.

I continue my same thoughts about this market as I have been saying for months about the fundamentals I have in play. I have been following the fundamentals in grains for 34 years, and I rely on my own thoughts, I have seen the rest of the analysts since the beginning, and how many can say that they are still around today, or today's analyst who might be 34 years old let alone trading that long. Fundamentals and trading are 2 separate things; numbers are my power, not knowledge of fundamentals even though I consider myself an expert analyst. My experience has taught me well about the changing world of trading since the funds came into power, and the one thing that is consistent and the foundation for my trading, has always been in the numbers and not the news or fundamentals. I feel I have conveyed this to you since I started my service. The fundamentals are drivers of direction at best. It is like playing poker, "a mind game", but when the bets are made and it is time to show what you got, the settlement price is always the real price no matter what you think it should be.

It looks the same as yesterday and before; the market is going nowhere and marking time. I want to sell rallies rather than buy breaks

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

June Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 5/27/10

May 27, 2010


This report was sent to subscribers on 5/26/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/27/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

June Cattle

After the close on 5/27/10: My resistance was 91.72, the exact actual high, and my support was 190.02FG, just .50 (2 ticks) from the actual low

Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base

We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

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 Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers


92.17                          near Bracket Line Resistance                       

91.72                       

--------------90.87       Pivot 

90.02 FG

89.32

      

Trend                       88.60  is the 200 day MA   

5 day chart....…      Down (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Up              

Weekly chart ……. Up                       ATR 1.27

Monthly chart....     Sideways            Oversold 32%


June Cattle (elec.) for 5/27/10: 

I still say "Bracket line is now resistance, 89.70 is near term support; real support is at the support bracket line (green)".

Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.               

In my daily numbers on Wednesday; my resistance was .12 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .22 from the actual low.            

Cattle: Spot on resistance and accurate support. Selling the resistance was a good trade idea that would have been profitable for a day trade, and swing traders could now lower their buy stop to 91.22 to protect. We are close to initiating the trade again today that I feel is still in play.

June Cattle (elec.) for 5/26/10: 

Cattle: Spot on resistance and helpful support. Bears are in control and I want to sell near the bracket line that once again acts as resistance. I could see selling against the gap that was left from Monday's close at 91.12 if aggressive risking no more than .40, but for a longer term trade looking for a retest of the bracket line support of 87.00, I would use a buy stop at 92.45.

June Cattle (elec.) for 5/25/10: 

Cattle: Spot on resistance and not helpful support off .50. As long as we are below the bracket line (which is now resistance) I want to play the short side.

Results for 5/24/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .02 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .02 1/2 from actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .00 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .04 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.27 from the actual high; my support was 0.47 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 8.00 from the actual high; my support was 2.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 0.90 from the actual high; my support was 0.20 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .09 from the actual high; my support was .11 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 9 from the actual high; my support was 13 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .043 from the actual high; my support was .034 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .10 actual high; my support was .50 from the actual low. 

June Cattle (elec.) for 5/24/10: 

Cattle: Spot on support number and helpful resistance at best. Open outcry chart provides a cleaner look to the chart and the chart I use in price discovery. I wanted to sell resistance risking only .40 which would have worked well using the bracket line, but my resistance numbers was off .57 and not close enough to sell. I want to play the short side when below the bracket line of 92.10, and play the long side this week when above.

June Cattle (elec.) for 5/21/10: 

Cattle: Spot on resistance and helpful support. Bulls spit the bit and lost control of the market in the near term. They need to recapture the bracket line to regain control. I want to sell resistance and use a buy stop to protect not risking more than .40.

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

July Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 5/25/10

May 25, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 5/24/10 6:20 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/25/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

July Soybeans

As of 9:55am Chicago time on 5/25/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 1070.00, .50 (2 ticks) from the actual high, and my support was 1036.25, just .50 (2 ticks) from the actual low

Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base

We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

 Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers

                        
9.55                          
-------------9.42 1/2        Pivot
9.30                               Support
 
Use the same numbers as used on 5 / 21 & 24 /10
Trend                  
5 day chart...      Sideways from last week same day                                                
Daily chart   …. Sideways                   
Weekly chart …Sideways           
Monthly chart   Sideways $9.82 1/4 is the 200 DMA
ATR 14 1/2        Oversold 21%

                        
9.55                          
-------------9.42 1/2        Pivot
9.30                               Support
 
Use the same numbers as used on 5 / 21 & 24 /10
Trend                  
5 day chart...      Sideways from last week same day                                                
Daily chart   …. Sideways                   
Weekly chart …Sideways           
Monthly chart   Sideways $9.82 1/4 is the 200 DMA
ATR 14 1/2        Oversold 21%
I continue to say "Uptrend line (green) acts as resistance now. Bears target the bracket line support now". Crisscross of the up and downtrend lines near $9.46 should provide resistance. On Friday it did just that.

Using desktop chart again, eliminating lines not in play.

 July Soybeans for 5/25/10: 

In my daily numbers on Monday; my resistance was .02 1/2 from the actual high; and my pivot acted as support and was .02 1/2 from the actual low.

Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player.  

Grains: Spot on soybean numbers and corn resistance, support was not in play. You had all day to sell against the pivot as they traded at $3.72 most of the day. I would have swing traded it overnight looking for a retest of $3.59 support. I would have risked 3 1/4 cents to make 13 if right.

Tonight the market reacts to the bearish crop production report and is shaving a few cents off of soybeans and corn. I have the same bearish thoughts as always. Funds hold 49% of the soybean open interest (total contracts) and 42% of the corn. I can only think of their positions like betting a long shot of the chance of poor weather with odds of $1 higher in soybeans and $.50 in corn if they are right (unless a major yield shortfall) and they probably are defending the $3.53 level in July corn and $8.80 in July soybeans as a line in the sand for risk tolerance. I think the odds should be at least double what I see as being offered for their trade idea, and at this time I consider the upside a "sucker bet" and would use a known risk strategy to sell as they rally this year.

Bears like me will wait about 3 more weeks from now with a good forecast before serious selling will be on my cards. Before then I will continue to want to sell at a resistance for a day trade, keep short swing positions at these levels and look to take profits at support levels. My continuing commentary has been spot on looking for a sideways trading affair with the same parameters I have had for weeks if not months. As a trader of grains for decades, this was not hard to predict based on the timetable that Mother Nature gives us for a growing season. Knowing how the market breathes, with supply my main focus for how I approach the growing season, and the endless year after year crop scares that but only a few years turn in a shortfall in expected production that alters price. I am fully aware of the January "Final USDA Report" can be a game changer, and when it is the market discovers the next price level quickly. March, May and June can be game changers too. But my focus on supply I have learned is the gas pedal on rallies. When you have burdensome supplies the production shortfall rallies are limited and like having your foot to the floor on a Hugo, but when supplies are less than adequate and the same production disappears, it is more like when I put my corvette in second gear and doing zero to 60 in 4 seconds flat (stock out of the factory).

Bottom line was always the same as now, I use the chart for trade location, and the numbers are the street address when I am close. The fact of gaining experience on the fundamentals for use in direction is one thing, the mere fact that you gain experience from looking at the charts and practice through trading the discipline it takes to execute whatever your approach, money management, or time frame is more valuable.

Results for 5/24/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .02 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .02 1/2 from actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .00 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .04 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.27 from the actual high; my support was 0.47 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 8.00 from the actual high; my support was 2.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 0.90 from the actual high; my support was 0.20 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .09 from the actual high; my support was .11 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 9 from the actual high; my support was 13 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .043 from the actual high; my support was .034 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .10 actual high; my support was .50 from the actual low. 

July Soybeans for 5/24/10: 

Grains: Accurate grain numbers. More sales to the PRC is the only thing I can see fundamentally that was supportive, and technically corn posted gains of $.06, wheat $.00 1/2, and soybeans lost $.12 1/2 on the week.

Corn is in the middle of their 2 month trade range between the bracket lines. July soybeans are $1.18 lower than when they started 2010 and the bears look to test the bracket line support at $9.20 next. Any rally in soybeans on the heels of corn should be capped at $9.70. Corn needs to close above $3.87 1/2 in order to turn the chart friendly. They held their lows once again at the bracket line support (another example of why I use bracket line support) and have $.15 either way (up or down) to get to a bracket line.

Same fundamentals as last week that I consider bearish except for the PRC factor which is impossible to predict. Funds positions are basically in a holding pattern awaiting further clues as the rest of us. Ag markets held up well last week considering the good weather and outside markets that probably held grains from doing better.

Bottom Line this week is as I said in my comments for Friday, corn having a good day on Friday could embolden the bulls to mount a charge to test the $3.85 level, and if they do that they could drag soybeans to test $9.70. I want to trade the numbers without bias for day trading, and I want to sell corn and soybeans at the resistance levels.

July Soybeans for 5/21/10: 

I will be back in Chicago this Saturday, and then I will return to a timelier schedule. I will try and get part 1 out on Friday for this Monday 5/24/10.

Grains: Spot on soybean and corn numbers. Another day of bullish fundamentals did little to ‘float the boat" until late in the open outcry session when prices recovered to post small gains. I feel the same as I did yesterday, "market reporters" such as commission house salesmen, and analysts continue to spin the "bullish side" of the story, while I concentrate that we could get a 166 to 170 bushel per acre corn yield this year which would certainly cause grain prices to work much lower from here if realized.

I am not saying that we cannot work a little higher; I just do not want to bet on that, instead I want to wait patiently and see if I could add to a short position on a rally near a resistance level. I feel since the bulls cannot ignore the bearish fundamentals, any rally will be short lived. Today the bulls put another wrong tilt on the forecasted 90 degree temperatures forecasted for the Midwest, saying it is a precursor for possible hot dry weather moving forward. That might be true but it is still a "what if" not a "what is". The "what is" for me when I look at this forecast is just what the Doctor ordered. We NEED this weather next week considering the cool wet conditions that has slowed development.

Whatever the fundamental picture is and the current why the market moves up or down is always secondary to my charts and my numbers. While the bulls spin the cup ½ full, I consider it ½ empty.

Technicians might look at the lower prices for the run and a higher close as a key reversal, but I know better and know that all it means is that it should follow through the next day. (As I pointed out recently on 3 markets with the same signal in which in fact they all continued the direction for at least the next day) What the bulls need is a significant up day on Friday to embolden them and throw a caution flag to the shorts.

I want to day trade from the short side when possible, and continue a longer term short position that takes profits at supports on some of it and look to re-sell on a $.10 rally in corn or $.20 rally in soybeans.

Producers in the US and S. America I think are making a mistake by not selling what they have grown. I was told that most hedging services are telling their producers this week to finish selling the 2009 crop, are they joking? I recommended that ALL your crop be fully hedged by the January 2010 USDA report, and warned all un-hedged positions have more to lose than gain. I also wrote in my daily newsletter many times, a way to have your upside using options instead of futures to "own" some upside if they rally, risking only a minimum amount if wrong, instead of the huge losses they would have seen with futures or "cash" from un-hedged grain. Even if corn was $.30 higher from here and soybeans $.50 higher from here, you would be deeply underwater from where you could have hedged, and worse than that it is still un-hedged and you are faced with the same question, where am I going to hedge? The same option strategy I recommended for producers could have been used by speculators who wanted the downside, or the upside if bullish, both having a known risk and reward, and known margin if any.

Even if corn and soybeans were $.20 higher or more right now than in January, was it really worth the money if you had to wait until now to earn that? What do you think, the farmers of both countries who did not sell are using hedge strategies that allow for the upside but protect from the downside? I think not. I have little respect for almost all services I have seen, the pure "I think grain prices will be ...... and hedge 20% of your crop here, and % there, and more there, but when the market goes down instead, it is the farmer who loses money, not them. These archaic strategies were made for markets when I first started trading grains, but do not come close to the flexibility options strategies provide. I think the main reason they shy away from using options is the lack of knowledge on how to use them and not have them use you. Most of my producers have learned more from me than what any of their previous services representatives know about options. I always thought that hedge services had someone calling the shots with somewhat the experience I have, but it does not appear to be anyone who does. Even an 8 year old can tell you who they think will win a game or which way grain prices will go, and you think they have a 50/50% chance because it can only result in 1 or the other, but the casino's and bookmakers will tell you they do not.

In my mind unsold grain held by producers is bearish, I cannot see the reason for US farmers to be outright long unsold grain, but at least the farmers in S. America are waiting for the currency to devalue soon and therefore holding onto a dollar denominated commodity.

July Soybeans for 5/19/10:

  Grains: Spot on corn numbers and helpful soybean numbers. After the beating corn has taken, the $.03 ¾ they recouped did not impress me. The funds are getting entrenched in defending their long position, and if they fail it could get bloody. Nobody can predict where grain prices will be in 2 months, so I look at grain trading as I have for 34 years. At this time of the year all long term bets I make are based on the "what is" now, and the "what if and what could be" if yields are huge or have a shortfall. The shorter term such as "swing trading" where I risk $.05 or $.10 to make $.10 to $.30 is much more predictable, but the mode that I excel in is day trading because of my accurate numbers, and the first 13 years I was a corn and soybean floor trader mainly spreading, scalping (trying to make $.01 to $.05 and could be a buyer and seller many times in a few minutes) using my numbers, and having a core position when at bracket line or trend lines.

I want to continue to have a bearish long term stance, and if I was trading that time frame I would have an options position that reflects selling, and in the near term I would continue to sell call spreads that will make money even if the market does go a little higher. I like to sell rallies at resistance and only risk a small amount using a buy stop to protect. You know that when near support and in oversold conditions I like to take profits and look to sell again, I do not like to press the extremes for further gains.

July Soybeans for 5/18/10:

  Grains: Perfect (exact) soybean numbers and spot on corn numbers. Now we are in extremely oversold conditions and would think at least early today, commodities in general are ripe for "Turnaround Tuesday". I do not want to think the price decline was because of the grain market alone, the bulls must be concerned with the strength of the dollar, plunging crude oil prices, and weakness in global equities. You know I really do not care why.

Monday's crop progress report was a little friendly but meaningless in my eyes seeing as how we are forecasting open weather the next 2 weeks. There is no concern with the weather to worry about any upside event, and unless the PRC steps up and start buying the next few weeks, the bulls will need to be serious about holding their position. In the near term, if July corn takes out the recent low, liquidation by the funds could get ugly.

I want to continue to play it from the short side and would like to sell at resistance today.

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

July Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 5/17/10

May 17, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 5/16/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/18/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

July Soybeans

After the close on 5/17/10: My resistance was 9.55, the Exact actual high, and my support was 9.37 1/2, the Exact actual low.

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9.76                    

9.68                          near steep downtrend line

-------------9.55        Pivot

9.42                     

9.37 1/2 FG                     

  

Trend                 

5 day chart...      Down from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   …. Sideways                   

Weekly chart …Sideways           

Monthly chart   Sideways $9.84 1/4 the 200 DMA

ATR 15 1/2        Oversold 11%


I am using my laptop and the charts I have are in my desktop, so I needed to create new charts. This is how I would draw this (and all charts in this edition) if I was looking at it for the first time.

Notice how the steep downtrend line was perfect resistance on Wednesday, and how well the uptrend line held on Friday

 July Soybeans for 5/17/10: 

In my daily numbers on Friday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .01 1/2 from the actual high; and my support was .02 from the actual low.               

Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player.

Grains: Spot on grains numbers! "I care more about how a market reacts to the news rather than the news itself". So how did it react? Bullish corn report, huge export corn sales to the PRC, slow PRC planting and a new high in China for corn prices, resulted in a loss of $.09 for July corn, $.06 ½ in July soybeans, and July wheat $.33 ½. "Actions speak louder than words". Even though it is hard to sell grains, it is even harder for me to consider buying except to take profits from shorts.

I do not even want to consider reading what the "market reporters" or commission houses have to say because for the most part I think they are a day late and a dollar short. I care what I think, and what I think I have clearly said since last year, "grains will be in deep trouble if we get the crop that, as far as this writing, looks to be a big one". I have been saying for months that the market will trade in a sideways to lower pattern, mostly because of the "what if's" of the growing season, and will erode as we see stable weather. And the market will respond to a threat of adversity, which is not in the cards for now, weather the next two weeks shows improvement. I have been saying that it is easier to take $.10 to $.15 out of corn than wait for the $.30 move. I have always liked a short (sell) long term position, but have advised you to never press bracket line supports and take profits and look to resell on a corrective bounce. Yes, if they break through the bracket line I would miss maybe $.10, but how many times did I cover at support and sell at $.10 or more higher. My approach has nothing to do with the grain markets; I would do the same thing if this was a dog food chart, or any other market that is chartable.

If you want me to think about the fundamentals of outside markets, the bulls find no comfort in my being spot on in the dollar calling for it to be strong for 2010, and with crude oil on the verge of testing $70 now that equities worldwide is pulling back, these factors are not friendly to grains and will help in their price destruction going forward.

Markets are oversold and could see corrective upside action, but I would still not bet on the upside but would rather sell the rallies. I want to keep in mind that 2004 posted a record corn yield with US corn stocks swelling from 0.958 billion bushels on 9/04 to 2.1 billion on 9/05-an 11 year high. I think the bulls have their work cut out trying to rally, and I think we will erode further by the end of May.

Results for 5/14/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .01 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .02 from actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .02 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/2 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.13 from the actual high; my support was 0.08 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 1.75 from the actual high; my support was 2.25 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was .50 from the actual high; my support was 2.70 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .29 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance and my support were never in play with the sharply higher gap open. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .093 from the actual high; my support was .037 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .10 actual high; my support was .87 from the actual low. 

July Soybeans for 5/14/10: 

My wife and I will be leaving today to see our daughter graduate again, this time getting her second Master's degree, and she has already been accepted to a PhD program, we are so proud of her. I will be going for 8 days but I will continue to do my daily numbers service as well as conduct my brokerage business. Only some of my producers have June option contracts on and will need to get out by next Friday and sell cash and make delivery, or roll to the July, September, or December option contract depending on storability and marketing plan.

We are hoping that July corn will be above $3.70 or $3.80 so they can be long their cash corn and not have a sell until $4 or higher. They have protection from there ($3.70 or $3.80) if the market goes down so they will not lose money, but in most cases they have $.20 or $.30 more profit potential than their hedged price. This is what this strategy does, protects to the downside, and gives room for more profits if they can go higher. If the market next Friday settles at let's say $3.88, they can "roll" and now buy a July put spread like the $3.90/350 put spread, and sell a $4.20 or higher call to pay for it. In doing so they will have locked in the now higher price (and profit). (Speculators should not do this without the crop, or realize that the call they sell has unlimited upside potential and will need to be margined like a futures contract. No matter what, it can never be worse that if you sold a futures contract)

Lastly, I will try and do part 1 for Monday on Friday night, and will try and do part 2 on Saturday either in the late afternoon or evening.

Grains: Spot on soybean support and the rest of the grain numbers were accurate. We have covered the fundamentals but I want you to keep in mind, this as with most reports have facts in there that one analyst or another and traders would be skeptical about. That is even more reason that I accepted my mindset of "who cares what the fundamentals are when I find myself sometimes long and then short at 10 different times in the trading day", and would usually go home without a position no matter what I thought the market would do the next day. I was a 95% floor trader and 5% swing trader. Off floor when I went upstairs in 2000 and traded the "screen" I made the adjustment from the floor but was the same as on the floor, 95% and 5%. 2 years ago I traded a fund account using options with a known risk only strategy, and then last year mostly day traded and had some longer term trades, but the bottom line since my first day trading was the approach I use today. Just took a few years to hone until options came along, then I discovered a better way to manage time and risk, and get odds with my option knowledge instead of giving up the odds.

With that being said, I think no different than what I have been saying for quite awhile, I think corn will be trading no more than $.15 up or down from here for the next 4 weeks, and if weather is favorable, eroding prices from there. I really do not care about the fundamentals, I have laid out the directional bias they give me, but I could be wrong or the reported facts and it makes no difference to me, I trace charts and numbers, not fundamentals. Do you really care about the reason you are right, I just care about being right the market, even if it is for all the wrong reasons. Soybeans are having trouble recouping the downtrend lines just $.10 above where we are now. If they can do that, I can see July soybeans getting back to $9.90 at best, and in the near term the long term uptrend line should support near $9.40.

 July Soybeans for 5/13/10: 

Grains: Spot on corn and accurate soybean numbers. Export sales of 300,000 tonnes of corn to the PRC sent the market higher which it should have; closing closer to the lows was something it should not have. Huge volume overnight of nearly 50,000 contracts (started to get active when EU opened) and with Thursday's action after the sales figure, everyone who wanted to buy already had previously done so and the sales figures was already priced into the market. July corn closed only $.06 1/4 higher for the week on Wednesday, and that is after a friendly USDA report and great sales figures. Remember, I have said countless times and this is another example of "I care more about how the market reacts to the news than the news itself". Yes, if I thought like the bulls I would have reason to be long, but "reason" (fundamentals) is only good for direction at best, and very little to do with price discovery.

Price discovery is 1. The process to discover what the high and low for the day will be, 2. What the bigger picture longer term and wider parameters are, 3. Find chart formations such as trend lines and bracket lines to discover levels of support and resistance, 4. And defines locations for trade entries and exits (no matter to take a profit or loss). Fundamentals will do nothing for me to discover what the price will be today or in the future, my charts is what I rely on totally for that, and it has worked for me since day one 34 years ago.

I have always thought about it that way, and also have thought that the news is just a piece of the puzzle. I look at it this way, in the case of corn this week, if it had not been for the report and sales, corn would have been lower for the week, and if the report was bearish and sales were poor, the market would have plunged. If I was just a fundamentalist I would always be exposed to losses that could get out of control, and I would have little idea when to exit my thoughts especially if nothing changed.

As far as fundamentals, I have laid out my bearish stance. Even the bulls must consider the price outcome if the bearish factors come to be. Failure for May corn to close above the $3.78 level that I have said in my chart comments for weeks is bearish and no surprise to me. I have said for years in this service that "I do not care what brings the market to a chart location; I just want to exploit it". When corn was trading the first 1/2 hour on Wednesday near my long term resistance that if broken would become support, it presented an opportunity to sell risking only a few cents if it did not hold, for a good reward if for a day trade, and we will see if it can offer another 12 cents to the downside for a swing trade.

Soybeans ended their rally exactly at the steep downtrend line on Wednesday. Third time at the line gave it more strength to resist than any other time at the line. Soybeans managed only $.27 1/2 correction from the low last week trying to recover from the $.70 loss since 4/26/10. Bears in grain markets might have to wait another 4 weeks before getting aggressive, at least that is what time I need to see our crop potential and if the PRC is done buying.

July Soybeans for 5/12/10: 

Grains: Spot on corn numbers and accurate soybean numbers. The bottom line no matter what the fundamentals in the report said, is already priced into the market now!

Soybean oil stocks went up sharply (200 million pound increase) and pressured soybeans, corn usage was interesting to see them increase with more ethanol and feed use, and less than record global course grain stocks. More downside should be seen for soybeans and corn should be underpinned until PRC and US production is more certain.

I am amazed that so many analysts consider that the USDA is getting ahead of themselves raising corn yields this year to be 163.5 bushels per acre (BPA) versus their February report of 160.5 BPA, and I consider that bearish. At this time I would be surprised if we do not come in at least with a 165 BPA and if Mother Nature cooperates, we could get 170 BPA! When I take the extra 1.5 BPA by 89 million acres, that adds another 135 million bushels, and if their ethanol use and feed is estimated too high as I think, this will add even more. That would put it near a 2 billion bushel carryover.  If 170 we would add another 450 million bushels and that would be "game over" (bulls checkmated by the bears).

No matter what the fundamentals of supply and demand are, everything for me goes back to my charts for price discovery, and my numbers to pinpoint the destinations for the day. I thought the markets acted well to the report, but tonight they are content to hover around settlements. For now I want to day trade without bias, but keeping in mind my bearish bias. The parameters I have laid out the last month continue to be in play.  

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

USDA WASDE Report 5/11/10:

May 11, 2010



USDA WASDE Report 5/11/10:

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OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 99.1 million tons, up less than 1 percent from 2009/10.  Soybean production is projected at 3.3 billion bushels, down 49 million from the record crop produced in 2009 as increased planted and harvested area are more than offset by lower yields.  Harvested area is projected at a record 77.1 million acres based on an average harvested-to-planted ratio. Soybean yields are projected at a trend level of 42.9 bushels per acre, down 1.1 bushels from the 2009 record.  Soybean supplies are projected at 3.5 billion bushels, unchanged from 2009/10 as larger beginning stocks offset lower production.  Soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are unchanged at 190 million bushels as increased exports and crush projections are offset by reduced residual.

Soybean crush for 2010/11 is projected to decline 5 percent.  Sharply lower U.S. soybean meal exports are only partly offset by a small increase in domestic soybean meal use.  U.S. export prospects are reduced due to increased export competition from Argentina and India.  Domestic soybean oil consumption is projected to increase 3 percent as biodiesel production gains more than offset reduced food use.  Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 2.9 billion pounds, up 700 million from 2009/10.  A rebound in South American supplies from last year=s drought-reduced levels is projected to limit U.S. soybean exports to 1.35 billion bushels in 2010/11, down from a record 1.455 billion in 2009/10.  Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 365 million bushels, up 175 million from the projection for 2009/10.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.00 to $9.50 per bushel compared with $9.50 per bushel in 2009/10.  Soybean meal prices are forecast at $230 to $270 per short ton compared with $295 per ton for 2009/10.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 34 to 38 cents per pound compared with 36 cents for 2009/10.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at a record 440 million tons, up 2.2 million from 2009/10. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 340.9 million tons, up 2 million.  Global soybean production is projected to decrease 3 percent to 250.1 million tons.  The Argentina crop is projected at 50 million tons, down 4 million from 2009/10 crop based on reduced harvested area and trend yields.  Soybean area is projected lower as producers are expected to increase grain and sunflower seed plantings.  The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 65 million tons, down 3 million from 2009/10.  A small increase in harvested area is more than offset by lower yields following record yields set for the 2009/10 crop.  China soybean production is projected at 15.2 million tons, up 0.7 million from 2009/10 due to higher area and yields.  Global production of high-oil content seeds (sunflower seed and rapeseed) is projected to increase 5 percent from 2009/10, mostly due to increased harvested area.  Despite only small gains in global oilseed production, 2010/11 oilseed supplies are up 4 percent as beginning stocks are 19 million tons higher than a year ago.  Most of the increase is for soybeans in South America. 

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 4.6 percent in 2010/11.  Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 8.4 percent in China, accounting for 44 percent of global protein consumption gains.  Global soybean exports are projected at 87.9 million tons, up 2.5 million from 2009/10.  China soybean imports are projected at 49 million tons, accounting for more than half of world soybean trade.  Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 4.5 percent in 2010/11, led by increases for China and India.

WHEAT:  The 2010/11 outlook for U.S. wheat is for larger supplies as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production.  Beginning stocks are up 45 percent from 2009/10 and the highest in a decade more than offsetting a forecast 8 percent reduction in this year’s crop.  Total production is projected at 2,043 million bushels, down 173 million from last year.  The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 4 percent, but higher yields in Oklahoma, Texas, and a number of the soft red winter wheat states partly offset an 8 percent decline in expected winter wheat harvested area.  Spring wheat production is also expected lower as a return to trend yields from last year’s record levels lowers production prospects.  Durum and other spring wheat production is projected at 585 million bushels, down 16 percent from 2009/10, based on 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios and state yield trends for 1985-2008.  U.S. wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected at 3,103 million bushels, up 4 percent from the current year and the largest since 2000/01.

Total U.S. wheat use for 2010/11 is projected up 3 percent with higher expected domestic use and exports.  Food use is projected at 940 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from 2009/10 as flour extraction rates are expected to return to historical averages from their high levels during the past 2 years.  Feed and residual use is projected at 190 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from the 2009/10 projection as the larger carryin, particularly for soft red winter wheat, raises feed use prospects.  Exports are projected at 900 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from the current year as large, early season supplies and lower prices improve U.S. competitiveness.  Despite higher expected use, U.S. ending stocks are projected at nearly 1 billion bushels and the highest since 1987/88.  The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel, compared with the 2009/10 projection of $4.90 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected 2 percent higher with larger year-to-year beginning stocks more than offsetting lower expected production.  Global 2010/11 wheat production is projected at 672.2 million tons, down 1 percent from 2009/10 and the third largest production on record if realized.  Larger projected production in EU-27, South America, and the Middle East is more than offset by expected declines in FSU-12, North Africa, South Asia, China, Canada, and Australia. 

Global wheat trade is expected to rise slightly for 2010/11 with world exports up 2 percent from 2009/10 at 129.2 million tons.  Higher year-to-year exports for Argentina and EU-27 more than offset lower exports for Ukraine, Australia, and Canada.  Export prospects for Russia are unchanged for 2010/11 as larger Middle East crops and rising domestic wheat feeding limit export expansion for Russian wheat.  Global wheat consumption is projected up 2 percent for 2010/11 with larger global supplies supporting growth in demand.  World wheat feeding is projected 3 percent higher with much of the year-to-year increase from rising feeding in FSU-12.  Global stocks are projected at 198.1 million tons, up 4.7 million from 2009/10; however, China stocks are projected up 8.3 million tons leaving stocks in the rest of the world down from the current year projection.

 

COARSE GRAINS:  The 2010/11 outlook for U.S. feed grains is for larger supplies with higher beginning stocks and production; however, rising use is expected to limit the growth in ending stocks. Corn production for 2010/11 is projected at 13.4 billion bushels, up 260 million from 2009/10 as a 2.3-million-acre increase in intended plantings more than offsets a projected decline in yield from last year’s record.  Based on the rapid pace of 2010 planting as reported in Crop Progress, the 2010/11 yield is projected at 163.5 bushels per acre, 2.7 bushels above the 1990-09 trend.  Corn supplies are projected at a record 15.1 billion bushels, 325 million higher than in 2009/10. 

Total U.S. corn use for 2010/11 is projected up 2 percent from the current year with higher expected food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use and exports more than offsetting a decline in projected feed and residual use.  FSI use is projected 4 percent higher with a 200-million-bushel increase in corn used for ethanol accounting for most of the increase.  Corn ethanol use, projected at 4.6 billion bushels, is supported by rising Federal biofuels mandates and strong blending incentives that continue to boost ethanol usage.  Exports are projected up 3 percent with larger supplies and lower prices, but rising foreign feed grain supplies, mostly corn, limit export growth in 2010/11.  Domestic corn feed and residual use is projected down slightly with a slow recovery in animal numbers and increased use of distiller’s grains.  U.S. corn ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected up 5 percent to 1.8 billion bushels.  The season-average farm price is projected at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel compared with the 2009/10 forecast of $3.50 to $3.70 per bushel.

Changes to the 2009/10 corn balance sheet include higher FSI use and exports, which are partly offset by lower expected feed and residual use and lower production with downward revisions to harvested area and yields for North Dakota and South Dakota.  FSI is revised back to 1997/98 to better reflect net exports of sweeteners and starch as indicated by U.S. Bureau of Census data.  These changes raise FSI slightly and lower feed and residual use offsetting amounts.  The largest changes are in the most recent years when foreign demand for U.S. corn sweeteners has been strongest.  Feed and residual use for 2009/10 is lowered 75 million bushels, in part, reflecting increased availability of distiller's grains with a 100-million-bushel increase in projected corn use for ethanol.  Exports are raised 50 million bushels based on recent strength in sales and shipments.  These changes combine with the 21-million-bushel reduction in 2009/10 production to lower ending stocks 161 million bushels. 

Global coarse grain production for 2010/11 is projected at a record 1,129.8 million tons, up 2 percent from 2009/10.  Most of the 27.4-million-ton increase in coarse grains production results from higher projected foreign corn production, up 19.9 million tons from 2009/10.  Higher expected foreign corn area and rising yields combine with higher U.S. area to boost global corn production to a record 835.0 million tons, up 26.5 million from 2009/10.  Corn production is projected higher year-to-year for China, Mexico, India, Russia, EU-27, Ukraine, and Canada.  Corn production is expected to be lower in Brazil and South Africa.  World coarse grain trade is higher for 2010/11 mostly reflecting rising projected corn imports and exports.  Global corn consumption is projected to be record high at 827.9 million tons, up 19.0 million from 2009/10, with nearly three-quarters of the increase in foreign markets.  World corn ending stocks are projected at 154.2 million tons, up 7.2 million from 2009/10 and the highest since 2000/01.  With stocks for China projected up 6.9 million tons, other country changes year-to-year are mostly offsetting.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2010/11 is down 3.3 percent from 2009/10.  Lower beginning stocks and imports more than offset higher production.  Higher beet sugar production reflects a return to trend yields, while cane sugar production is increased for Florida and Texas.  Imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) reflect the minimum of U.S. commitments to import raw and refined sugar and projected shortfall.  The Secretary of Agriculture will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date.  Imports from Mexico are nearly unchanged.  Total use is unchanged.

Mexico=s 2010/11 sugar supply is up 1.7 percent with higher stocks and production more than offsetting lower imports.  Production is projected to increase, as yields rebound to trend levels.  Imports reflect mainly U.S. exports.  Domestic sugar consumption is down slightly, due to higher use of corn-based sweeteners, and exports are up slightly.  Ending stocks increase moderately.

For 2009/10 U.S. sugar, increased supplies nearly offset increased use, compared with a month earlier.  Imports are increased under the TRQ and due to expectations for increased high-duty imports.  Sugar deliveries are increased to reflect the recent strong pace to date.

 LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Total U.S. meat production for 2011 is projected to be slightly higher than 2010 as increased pork and poultry production more than offset declines in beef production.  Beef production for 2011 declines on tighter supplies of cattle.  Declining cow inventories and calf crops over the past several years, coupled with expected lower imports of cattle during 2011 will result in a smaller pool of cattle available for slaughter.  Pork production for 2011 is expected to increase as improved returns encourage increased sows farrowing and carcass weights are heavier.  Both broiler and turkey production for 2011 are forecast higher as producers respond to improved returns.  Egg production is forecast higher as production gradually builds upon the measured expansion currently underway.

The total meat production forecast for 2010 is reduced from last month as lower red meat production more than offsets higher broiler and turkey production.  Forecast beef production is reduced as slightly higher cattle slaughter is offset by expected lighter cattle weights.  The pork production forecast is reduced as supplies of hogs for slaughter are tighter than expected.  Broiler production is raised as improved returns are expected to encourage increased hatchery activity.  The turkey production forecast for the first half of the year is raised based on the most recent slaughter data.

Despite an improved world economy, U.S. beef exports for 2011 are expected to be lower as U.S. production declines and more competitor beef becomes available.  Pork and broiler exports are expected to benefit from an improved global economic climate and increased U.S. production.  Beef imports are expected to be higher for 2011 as U.S. cow slaughter declines in response to lower cow inventories.  Pork imports are forecast higher with relatively strong U.S. pork demand.

The 2010 red meat export forecast is little changed from last month with fractionally higher beef exports reflecting the pace of trade to date.  Pork exports are unchanged.  Beef imports are forecast lower as competitor supplies of beef are tight and global beef demand is improving with the economic recovery.  Broiler exports are forecast lower than last month on weaker shipments to several markets.For 2011, cattle prices are forecast to rise as demand improves and production declines.  Hog prices are forecast lower due to increased production.  Broiler and egg prices are also forecast higher on demand strength carried over from 2010.  Turkey prices will be slightly lower in 2011.Cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts for 2010 are raised from last month as demand improves and supplies are tight.  However, turkey and egg price forecasts are reduced.

COTTON:  The 2010/11 U.S. cotton projections include higher supplies offset by higher exports relative to last season, resulting in marginally lower ending stocks.  Production is projected at 16.7 million bales, which is based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings, combined with 7-percent abandonment and a yield of 815 pounds per harvested acre.  Projected abandonment is reduced from the 10-year average of 11 percent due to unusually favorable soil moisture in Texas.  Domestic mill use is projected at 3.3 million bales, a marginal reduction from 2009/10.  Exports are projected to rise 1.5 million bales from 2009/10 to 13.5 million, as foreign demand is expected to outpace supply.  Ending stocks are projected at 3.0 million bales, the lowest since 1995/96.  The projected range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is 60 to 74 cents per pound.

World cotton production is projected to rise nearly 11 million bales in 2010/11, but supplies will increase less than 1 percent from last season owing to sharply lower beginning stocks.  Production is expected to rise in nearly all cotton-producing countries, with the United States, India, Brazil, and Pakistan accounting for about 70 percent of the increase.  World consumption is projected to rise 2.8 percent, supported by economic recovery while at the same time constrained by limited supplies.  An increase in China’s imports to 11.5 million bales is boosting world trade.  With a slight increase in production and declining stocks, China will need to rely on imports to sustain a projected 3 percent increase in consumption.  World ending stocks are projected to decline 2.6 million bales to 50.1 million.  The stocks-to-consumption ratio of 42 percent is the lowest since 1994/95.

Revisions to the 2009/10 balance sheets show higher beginning stocks, higher production, and lower consumption, resulting in an increase of 1.8 million bales in world ending stocks.  China accounts for most of the increase, due to higher production and imports.  China’s production is raised 1.0 million bales based on reported higher production for Xinjiang; imports are raised 500,000 bales reflecting activity to date.  Consumption is reduced for Pakistan, Turkey, and the United States, but is raised for India and Vietnam.  U.S. 2009/10 production is raised 38,000 bales consistent with NASS’s final production estimate.  The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is lowered 1 cent on the upper end of the range. 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any

 

June Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 5/6/10

May 06, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 5/5/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/6/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

June Cattle

After the close on 5/6/10: My resistance was 97.20, just .15 from the actual high, and my support was 94.80, .30 from the actual low.

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June Cattle (elec.) for 5/6/10: 

Same story now as before when I said "Top channel line doing its job for now acting as resistance. Bears target bottom channel line; bulls will try and test the top channel line once again".   

I say again on Wednesday "Tuesday provided all of the above! Double top now at $96.30. Top channel line once again did its job, as well as the bottom channel line support".

Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.              

In my daily numbers on Wednesday; my resistance was .20 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .42 from the actual low.

 Cattle: Accurate resistance and helpful support. The top channel line was spot on and once again shows you why I use these lines. Even though the market made a new high, it pulled back after jabbing just above it. If I attempted to sell at that line today, I would not risk more than .50 and would stand aside and not trade the market the rest of the day. I cannot buy this because of the location, but on the other hand I do not want to see how wrong I can be if I sell, because the next strong resistance is about 4 cents higher at the gap of 100.95 on the weekly chart. The only way I would be long if fundamentally (which I know little about) I was to think we could go a lot higher, I would use options with a known risk strategy no matter if I was long or short. It is not because of the cattle market, it is because of THIS type of CHART.           

June Cattle (elec.) for 5/5/10: 

Cattle: Spot on support and helpful resistance. Bulls continue to be in control and target the top channel line again now at 97.00. I cannot buy at this chart location but I would try a sell at resistance with a buy stop risking no more than .50 if wrong (does not hold).

June Cattle (elec.) for 5/4/10:

  Cattle: Spot on support and helpful resistance at best. Bulls had held the uptrend line for days and it was time to turn up the heat on the bears that could not close below that line. Buying above the pivot proved to be a low risk trade with nice reward. That is the foundation of my approach to becoming a casino and not the player. The trend lines, bracket lines, gaps and such are what provides me the "odds are in favor of the casino" because those things put the odds in my favor. When they hold they reward nicely, and when wrong (they do not hold) you do not lose much. Everyone should have a "line in the sand" to work with, no matter how you get that number (price).    

New subscribers should read all commentary because my mindset applies to all markets. Also, a chart is a chart, and you can learn from nine charts at once, instead of waiting for your market to present that line, or formation. This way you will know what to expect when your market sees that setup you observed in another market. This will speed up your learning speed of how I use my charts and how I derive my numbers.

Results for 5/3/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .03 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 1/2 from actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .02 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.40 from the actual high; my support was 0.13 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 6.00 from the actual high; my support was 1.00 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 5.90 from the actual high; my support was 5.40 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .14 from the actual high; my support was .39 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 5 from the actual high; my support was 2 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .025 from the actual high; my support was .005 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .45 actual high; my support was .07 from the actual low. 

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

May Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 5/3/10

May 03, 2010


This report was sent to subscribers on 5/1/10 11:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/3/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

May Soybeans

After the close on 5/3/10: My resistance was 9.95 1/4, .03 1/4 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 9.86, .03 1/2 from the actual low.

More Results for 5/3/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .03 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 1/2 from actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .02 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.40 from the actual high; my support was 0.13 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 6.00 from the actual high; my support was 1.00 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 5.90 from the actual high; my support was 5.40 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .14 from the actual high; my support was .39 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 5 from the actual high; my support was 2 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .025 from the actual high; my support was .005 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .45 actual high; my support was .07 from the actual low. 

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10.09 1/2 

  9.95 1/4

-------------9.86   Pivot

  9.76 3/4 FG            also is the 200 DMA

  9.64 1/4

    Use the same numbers as used on 4/30/10

Trend               

5 day chart...      Down from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   …. Sideways                  

Weekly chart …Sideways           

Monthly chart   Sideways $9.77 1/2 the 200 DMA

ATR 14 1/2        Oversold 37%



Bulls need to recapture the uptrend line near $10.01 to regain control of the market, and then needs to close over last Monday's high to continue the rally. The bears fell $.00 3/4 short from filling the gap at $9.76 3/4 which is supportive.       

In my daily numbers on Friday; my resistance was .03 actual high; and my pivot acted as support and was .03 from the actual low.              

May Soybeans for 5/3/10: 

200 day moving average at $9.77 1/2 near the gap at $9.76 3/4 is key support now.

I said "We are now at resistance levels so my bias becomes to sell at resistance".

Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player.

Grains: Spot on numbers for corn less than $.01 from both support and resistance, and soybeans off $.03 on both sides. You can look at the bigger picture fundamentals like the dollar being 5% stronger than it was at the start of this year, or the equities markets that reflects economic growth, the CRB almost unchanged for the year, and crude oil near their high for the year. What good do the outside fundamentals do for price discovery in the grain markets especially when so many offset each other? If fundamentals are what I want to focus on, than I want to concentrate on the market I trade instead of looking at outside markets fundamentals for help.

The fundamentals the grain market will focus on this week are the same as last week, PRC buying which are the bull's best friend and the bear's nightmare, second only to adverse weather which is the bear's worst nightmare. PRC is the wildcard that is impossible to forecast beyond their actions. Weather is much more predictable in the short run, but farther out in time it can change quickly. Export sales will be closely watched, as well as farmer sales here and in S. America.

It will be interesting to see if there is fund buying that we have come to expect the first 3 days of a new month. I cannot see soybeans rallying too much from here especially with last week's poor performance, even with the corn and wheat gains. Maybe corn caught the crude oil strength or maybe it was time for more unwinding of the long soybean short corn spreads. Corn started last week strongly but by Tuesday the market was testing this year's low, and by Thursday we made a new high for the month.  

The market feels strong but I will not get excited because the options give no clue that the market has any real potential to go that much higher. This could change, but option premium (the cost of the right to be long or short) will have to increase to show potential for an extended move up or down.

I want to continue day trading, and want to position trade from the short side whenever possible.   

May Soybeans for 4/30/10: 

Grains: Spot on soybean numbers, spot on corn support and helpful resistance. Uncertainty about PRC corn stocks and demand propelled corn to new highs for the run but could not keep the majority of its gains. Soybeans were strong but nowhere near this week's high and could not close above the uptrend line. Firm tone in the grains as I write this in the night session on very light contract volume.

I do not want to dissect the fundamentals because it will do absolutely nothing for price discovery not only for today, but in the near term. What the fundamentals will project is price direction. We know the major fundamental bar none is what the crop production will be. If we produce a huge crop, the market will respond to the downside and as the production estimates get bigger the market will go down, but if the opposite happens we will start pricing in the shortfall and as the shortfall estimates increase, the market will respond with further rallies. The second most important fundamental is true demand by end users, and asset allocation by investment funds. They do not need the fundamentals to move the market higher; they just need to buy more than what is willing to be sold.

My time frame is day trading, and whatever makes the market move up or down is truly unimportant to me, the numbers for the day is my guide to what the market offers for the current day. I do want to continue to take swing trades (more than 1 day) from the sell side at a place on the chart (longer term chart resistance, not just resistance for the day) to initiate with little risk if the resistance does not hold, and have a good reward when it does.

For me, Thursday's action was a failure by the bulls to advance the market, and that there were willing sellers who will not be buying their shorts back, and they are the producers. Some of my producers were using Thursday's rally to take more off the table and hedged some unsold corn. As I have talked about and noted for a long time is the fact that for whatever the reason, the market must close above $3.78 to turn the chart friendly, but even then it will be like swimming upstream every inch of the way up. Only a weather event could get corn above the price before the January USDA Final report which was a game changer.

Nothing has changed for me. I am more a willing seller of corn than soybeans, and I have no problem taking a sell in the May corn using a buy stop at $3.71. I want to trade the sell side only and I want to use my numbers for trade location. The market did close higher and the bulls have momentum behind them. Keep in mind that May soybeans on Monday made a new high for the move and closed lower for the day, a bearish signal. On Thursday May soybeans closed $.14 1/4 cents lower for this week. How strong is that even with the bullish corn today? In the same time frame corn is now up $.07 3/4.

Am I painting the picture the way I am trying to say how I look at this abstract painting called the chart, and fundamentals? I call it abstract art because we all see the same chart but like an abstract painting we do not see the same things. In Chicago we have a Picasso sculpture in the Civic Center. As you walk around the sculpture you can see a woman's face, and then you will see a bird with not a trace of the woman. Maybe the first time it will take awhile to see the bird and woman, but after that it will be clear without struggle to clearly see the images. In a painting a trained abstract art lover could point out 10 things in a painting that I could only see 3 until pointed out. The way I perceive fundamentals is like what I pointed out in production and demand, but charts are what I have relied on for price discovery of where to buy and where to sell, and money management of becoming a casino to get the odds for whatever I do, and NEVER be emotional when trading. 

Results for 4/28/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .03 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .00 3/4 from actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .02 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.51 from the actual high; my support was .41 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 2.25 from the actual high; my support was .75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.90 from the actual high; my support was 1.00 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .48 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 3.5 from the actual high; my support was 6 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .019 from the actual high; my support was .045 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .10 actual high; my support was .20 from the actual low. 

May Soybeans for 4/29/10: 

Grains: Spot on numbers. It's all in the numbers. Bulls tried to recapture the uptrend line but failed. Bulls still are in sight of doing just that and in doing so would set up a retest of Mondays high. Bears failed to fill the gap at $9.76 3/4 and this is a failure too.

Huge supply potential versus funds, PRC demand, and weather adversity is what is keeping the market from going lower or higher in the near term. Looking at the 5 early planted years (I wrote about on 4/27/10) the average summer rally for corn is only $.10 to $.45, and soybeans $.50 to $1. Interesting to note in the last 3 years new crop soybeans (SX) posted summer rallies of $1.70 to $1.95. I do not think we will rally unless summer weather threatens, and until there is a hint of that, I would not bet on it. With good demand I realize that is 1/2 of what it takes to make a big rally, the other 1/2 is tight supplies. The market can rally on either, but when both are in play you have the strongest upside action. If indeed we have a shortfall due to adverse weather, we will have no problem taking out 2009 highs.  

On the other hand I always point out that for now the crop is in or going in the ground well, and for the most part ideal conditions. The thoughts I have about corn production is 165 to 170 BPA (bushels per acre) with the current pace and conditions, and if that becomes reality we would be looking at a corn stocks of 2.6 billion bushels and the party will be over for quite awhile.

Anyone who wants to "bet" on adverse weather can do so very cheaply, and maybe then it will free the "bull in the summer" to be able to get short more easily. By buying a December corn $4 call for $.25 and no matter how low the market goes that is the most you can lose. You have about 7 months to wait for the rally, and whenever you are convinced this is not a possibility, you can sell the call for whatever it is worth. If you just want to bet on this to occur by 6/25/10 you can buy a July $3.70 call for only $.15. Now that you are covered if the market rallies, you can at times consider selling the market and that call would be the same as a buy stop to protect.

Bottom Line: I want to continue to play from the short side when at resistance, and depending on where we are on the chart, I would take sells at the pivot too. I want to sell corn at resistance and use a $3.65 3/4 buy stop to protect risking only a few cents.

May Soybeans for 4/28/10: 

Grains: Spot on numbers! I have been solid in conveying my approach to the market, the fundamentals in grains, my "what if's and what is reality" and my mindset and strategy I use to trade that. My commentary hopefully made you think twice about buying soybeans on Tuesday, and maybe helped tighten up your sell stops to protect profits if you were long. I hopefully gave some courage to the bears when I said I wanted to take the sell signals (and still want to sell at resistance).

 Soybeans closed on the uptrend line which is pivotal today. Since I feel we are in a trading range as I have outlined before, the market can go up or down on any day and it will not surprise me. What did surprise me was the rally in soybeans to the $10 level. Even if I was a seller everyday at a sell signal, I would have still done well as a day trader. Even if I was stopped out 3 time's prior losing $.06 each time, I can get that back in 1 day being right. Not losing money while being wrong 3 out of 4 days puts me in the position of being like a casino instead of a player. You do the math when I am right 3 out of 4 times. With that being said I want to continue to sell rallies at resistances, and trade my numbers in doing so.

Corn is so bearish it has barely a pulse now, but since we are nearing a place where I want to cover shorts ($3.43 1/2), I want to sell again when the market gets $.10 higher from here. You know my mentality about selling at resistance where we were last week, risking a few cents using a buy stop just above the gap at $3.64, and now since we came down to the support level in just 2 or 3 days and being oversold now, I buy back my shorts to take profits and look for the next trade. On the trading floor I would scalp from the long side down near support at a buy signal using my numbers, but I trade a smaller contract size and do not take home overnight. Only sell signals at resistance levels will I continue to want to position trade going forward.

It has nothing to do with price, it has to do with time and where it is on the chart. As I pointed out many times before, when a price is above an uptrend line, and the market is unchanged every day, eventually it will be under the line instead as before when it was above. It was time that changed the exact price from being a buy to being a sell.

Chart note: This was one of the markets who had a higher high for the run with a lower close that I said would bode well for lower prices, May soybeans lost $.16 so that signal worked. (This was really profitable in all 3 markets that had this signal on Tuesday)

May Soybeans for 4/27/10: 

Grains: Accurate corn numbers and helpful soybean numbers at best. Again you will see and read market reporters and brokers who tell you what they think, and they take the price action and pin the fundamentals that fit. I on the other hand do not see anything different today, Friday, last week, or even before that. I just see what I have been saying for weeks, the fundamentals are bearish, and speculators are betting on weather that as time ticks on with the forecasts from the past coming true, the bulls have less ground to stand on. Of course we are in the early stages of production, and there is not a person that will not tell you that at some time in the next 4 months, something will happen to produce a summer rally. I say that is why you will see summer erosion in prices until something, even a forecast, changes the bearish scenario. This is what I have been saying for a long time. 

I can see why corn was up a little on Monday, and it was up $.04 1/2 20 minutes before the close (hard for me to believe) but corn bulls realized they were causing no chart damage while soybeans was having trouble staying above the pivot and wheat was getting hammered since a fund sold 4000 contracts 30 minutes into the session.

The situation remains the same. Funds, speculators, and farmers are long, fundamentals are bearish. The "tug of war" in corn price stays between $3.43 1/2 and the gap at $3.64 as I said yesterday, and it looks like since they failed to fill the gap, the market is taking the elevator down to ground level $3.43 1/2. PRC is the main help and hope for the funds and bulls. They can buy or not buy, when and at what price they want to. Soybeans defy gravity with good PRC demand and the least supply of all the grains.

Corn is 50% planted now versus the 5 year average of 22%, but what really stands out to me is that IL 73% and IA 68% are normally 28% and 23% using the last 5 year averages. Throw in IN at 68% vs. 14% average, and that adds up to the major producing states are off to a possible record start. Statistics show 1994, 00, 04, 05, and 06 when planted 63% or more by mid May, 1994 and 2004 posted record yields and the others had average trend yields. Look at last year, they drowned the crop, the sun was hard to find, and it was a cool summer with some areas getting an early frost and what happened? Record soybean and corn yields. So we can get record production as recent history has shown with early planting, and cool wet summers can do the same as witnessed last year. This tells me that you cannot ignore the seeds and equipment being used, and as long as weather cooperates, we will see more record yields as time goes on, and this year looks to be a year that will produce an unimagined record yield. Couple that with the fact that in those 5 years we planted early, we averaged gains in acreage planted of around 1.3 million acres from what was expected on the March report to the June report.

The key to my thinking is ideal weather that is the "what is" and the thing I want you to realize is the moment I get a hint that adverse weather might be on its way, I get off my bearish bias and would be a more willing buyer at good chart locations. I have no use for keeping an opinion that becomes even 1 day old. Even if I make a lot of money on the downside, that does not mean I should continue that bias if the chart tells me different or a fundamental comes into play that was not there yesterday.

It would not surprise me to trade in the corn trading range I outlined, and soybeans I feel will be hard pressed to add to the recent gains. I am of no help to speculators who are bullish, because I would rather be short than long. I have no problem day trading from the buy side, but even day trading I prefer the short side. PRC buying can continue and the need for a good US soybean crop is essential to continue my bearish bias. Early planted corn could have switched some soybeans to corn acreage, but nothing that changes the soybean balance sheet by more than 25 to 40 million bushels, but we could add 100 to 300 million more corn bushels. If we get the yield I am thinking as of this date could add 500 million more bushels, and that would equate to $2.50 to $3 corn as I have said before. If I was bullish I could rely on adverse weather to come into play, get an early freeze, and we will test $4.50 on the way to $6 by harvest.

On Monday all December call and put option prices went down, they took "premium" out of the market and that means less volatile market to come, which tells me it is bearish. Although it is natural to take premium out of options with a lot of time, because options decay in time and when the market is near unchanged is when you see this. 

Options will show you the "odds" for whatever price you think. If you think that corn will rally or break from Monday's close of $3.59 1/2, it would cost you $.18 or less to have the right to be long or short July corn from $3.60 until June 25th. For $.32 you can be long December corn at $3.80 (no different from a futures contract on expiration) until 11/26/10 for $.32 and that will cover any "pipedream" (at least with the forecasts now) you have about adverse weather.

Bottom Line: Same as before, sell rallies and play from the short side in corn but I would buy support to cover shorts or to take a buy for a day trade only. I want to take sell signals only in soybeans and ignore the buy signals. Soybeans enjoy a bull chart, corn the opposite with its bear.

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?  

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn,  March crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, April gold, and March natural Gas and April cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Lebanon, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

June Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 5/3/10

May 03, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 5/1/10 11:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/3/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

June Cattle 

After the close on 5/3/10: My resistance was 95.25, .45 from the actual high, and my pivot also acted as support and was 94.00, .07 from the actual low

More Results for 5/3/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .03 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 1/2 from actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .02 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.40 from the actual high; my support was 0.13 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 6.00 from the actual high; my support was 1.00 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 5.90 from the actual high; my support was 5.40 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .14 from the actual high; my support was .39 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 5 from the actual high; my support was 2 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .025 from the actual high; my support was .005 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .45 actual high; my support was .07 from the actual low. 

Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base

We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

 Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers


96.30                        Double Top

95.25    

--------------94.00     Pivot 

92.75                       

91.57 FG                       

Use the same numbers as used on 4/28, 29, & 30 /10

       

Trend                         

5 day chart....…      Down (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Up             

Weekly chart ……. Up        

Monthly chart …... Up     88.05  is the 200 day MA

ATR 1.25                 Balanced 42%    


June Cattle (elec.) for 5/3/10: 

    I said "Top channel line doing its job for now acting as resistance". Bears target bottom channel line; bulls will try and test the top channel line once again".   

    "Notice how the top uptrend channel line provided perfect resistance on (last) Monday" Notice this again on Wednesday. This is not coincidence. Uptrend line support once again.

    Tuesday provided all of the above! Double top now at $96.30. Top channel line once again did its job, as well as the bottom channel line support.

Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.               

In my daily numbers on Friday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .52 from the actual high, my pivot also acted as support was .35 from the actual low.  

Cattle: Helpful numbers. Same thoughts, same numbers. Bulls are going to try and build support on that uptrend line, but remember they closed lower last week. I would trade the numbers without bias today.    

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/30/10: 

Cattle: Accurate resistance not helpful support. Market went nowhere in a "tug of war" battle at the uptrend line. Bulls are still in control and the chart has not had any chart damage as long as above 92.00.

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/29/10: 

Cattle: Spot on numbers. Bulls trying to regain energy at the supportive bottom uptrend channel line. Unless the market closes below the bracket line (red) near 92.00, the chart remains bullish. I would take my cues from the numbers today and trade without bias.

Results for 4/28/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .03 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .00 3/4 from actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .02 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.51 from the actual high; my support was .41 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 2.25 from the actual high; my support was .75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.90 from the actual high; my support was 1.00 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .48 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 3.5 from the actual high; my support was 6 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .019 from the actual high; my support was .045 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .10 actual high; my support was .20 from the actual low

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?  

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn,  March crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, April gold, and March natural Gas and April cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Lebanon, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

June Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 4/28/10

May 03, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 4/27/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 4/28/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

June Cattle  

After the close on 4/28/10: My resistance was 94.00, just .10 from the actual high, and my support was 92.75, just .20 from the actual low.

Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base

We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers


96.30                        Double Top

95.25    

--------------94.00     Pivot 

92.75                       

91.57 FG                       

      

      

Trend                         

5 day chart....…      Down (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Up             

Weekly chart ……. Up        

Monthly chart …... Up     88.00  is the 200 day MA

ATR 1.25                 Oversold 34%    



June Cattle (elec.) for 4/28/10: 

I said "Top channel line doing its job for now acting as resistance". Bears target bottom channel line; bulls will try and test the top channel line once again".   

"Notice how the top uptrend channel line provided perfect resistance on (last) Monday" Notice this again on Wednesday. This is not coincidence.

Tuesday provided all of the above! Double top now at $96.30. Top channel line once again did its job, as well as the bottom channel line support.

Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.              

In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .10 from the actual high, my support was 1.42 from the actual low.       

Cattle: Spot on resistance but the market dropped way below my support. Notice how the 96.30 high was now reinforced by the top channel line which also acts as resistance. The failure to even jab above the old high coming so close to at least seeing if there were buy stops just above, proves the market rally was done. My numbers provided a good sell almost at the high, but the buy stop I always use just above to protect losses was never threatened. I would have covered at the first support, but bears could have easily kept and bought the uptrend line. Tuesday low supports near the uptrend line and I would use my numbers without bias to take my cues today. Bulls stay in command above the red bracket line.

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/27/10: 

Cattle: Accurate numbers. I think the same as yesterday when I said "Bullish chart continues to be rejected at the top channel line. I would trade using my numbers without bias today".

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/26/10: 

Cattle: Exact low and helpful resistance. Bullish chart continues to be rejected at the top channel line. I would trade using my numbers without bias today.

Results for 4/23/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .01 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .05 1//2 from actual low.

Corn:         My resistance was .01 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .03 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.52 from the actual high; my support was the Exact actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 3.25 from the actual high; my support was 2.50 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 4.90 from the actual high; my support was 3.20 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .32 from the actual high; my support was .08 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 14 from the actual high; my support was 2 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .049 from the actual high; my support was .033 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .32 actual high; my support was the Exact actual low. 

Cattle: Helpful numbers. Same numbers and same thoughts as yesterday.

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/23/10: 

Cattle: Helpful numbers. Same numbers and same thoughts as yesterday.

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/22/10: 

Cattle: Helpful numbers at best. Bull chart has never quit except when it gets to the top channel line. I expect that to continue. If they do make a new high for the year, that top channel line becomes support. Chart resistance above 96.30 is out of range and is the gap on the weekly chart at 100.95.

Results for 4/22/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was the Exact actual high; my support was .03 from actual low.

Corn:         My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .00 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.27 from the actual high; my support was 0.32 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 2.50 from the actual high; my support was 2.50 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.00 from the actual high; my support was 2.00 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .10 from the actual high; my support was .07 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 7 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .066 from the actual high; my support was .051 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .37 actual high; my support was .25 from the actual low. 

Results for 4/22/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was the Exact actual high; my support was .03 from actual low.

Corn:         My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .00 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.27 from the actual high; my support was 0.32 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 2.50 from the actual high; my support was 2.50 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.00 from the actual high; my support was 2.00 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .10 from the actual high; my support was .07 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 7 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .066 from the actual high; my support was .051 from the actual low. 

June Cattle (elec.) for 4/21/10:

  Cattle: Spot on numbers! I would trade the numbers without bias again today. Same thoughts, same numbers.

Results for 4/20/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .02 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 from actual low.

Corn:         My resistance was .02 from the actual high; my support was .00 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.05 from the actual high; my support was 0.09 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 1.50 from the actual high; my support was 2.50 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 7.00 from the actual high; my support was 5.80 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .25 from the actual high; my support was .12 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 12 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .025 from the actual high; my support was .020 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .07 actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low. 

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

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