July Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 6/16/10
Jun 17, 2010
This report was sent to subscribers on 6/15/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 6/16/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.
After the close on 6/16/10: My resistance was 9.61 3/4, the exact actual high, and the pivot acted as support and was 9.46, .03 from the actual low
Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?
Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base
We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".
Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas
Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers
9.70 near Downtrend Line Resistance
9.30 1/2 XX
9.20 XX Key Support at bracket line
5 day chart... Up from last week same day
Daily chart …. Sideways
Weekly chart …Sideways
Monthly chart Sideways $9.78 1/2 is the 200 DMA
ATR 16 1/2 Balanced 65%
I continue to say "Key support is at the bracket line at 9.20. Last 3 week's high is resistance". "Bulls will be trying to recapture the long term uptrend line, and then they will want to retest the downtrend line resistance. I added the steep downtrend line that coupled with the uptrend line will make $9.52 pivotal".
The crisscross of trend lines is pivotal for Wednesday.
July Soybeans for 6/16/10:
In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .03 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .02 1/2 from the actual low.
Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player.
Grains: Spot on grain numbers! Bulls had to be disappointed in the performance of soybeans, and as far as the chart is concerned it closed right on support of the crisscross of trend lines. They are up in the night session which is slightly encouraging. Corn has not been able to get the buy stops above $3.55 which was a little hard to for me to believe when soybeans had good gains. Since I think we are trading sideways for the remainder of this week, they still have a chance to do so and maybe test $3.61, if they did get there I would want to sell and risk no more than $.04.
Bottom line is the same as before, we are not going anywhere the next week or two, we should trade maybe $.10 or $.15 higher and lower from here in corn and $.20 higher and lower from here in soybeans. I prefer to take the sell signals at resistances, and not take the buy signals.
July Soybeans for 6/15/10:
Grains: Spot on grain numbers all off less than $.01. I did not like the fact that July corn could not even get the buy stops above $3.55 let alone close above it. As I write corn is down $.02 which is not a good sign considering my pivot today is $3.52 and we are just below there as I write. (1 day trial did not get the numbers sent before part 1.)
The feel at this time of the year no matter the price is that the "what if" is always on a grain traders mind. That truly is in play but I want to remind you once again, the weather has already and continues to add on or take off "premium" day by day or week by week. The premium being the last price is trading at corn's (and grains) value and has added extra value for the possibility for a shortfall. Maybe corn would be worth $.20 less if we got through pollination without shortfall, and maybe another $.20 lower if the crop looks above average. Then we will play the early frost game, and then it will be a guessing game until we find the actual yield and production.
You can read from the market reporters about the PRC, Canadian weather, or the fact that with Monday's weekly crop production ratings for corn was the best in 76 years, but for me, I will trade these markets strictly by the chart, and let the fundamentals and "what if" be a bias at best. Depending on the chart location, I will adjust my type of trade from day trade to swing trade. You can see when the market is near a longer term resistance I want to sell to take profits if long, or a place to initiate a sell to go short. The opposite when at a longer term support where I would want to buy. Older subscribers know how I use the charts for location, and how I use the daily numbers on the days I want to day trade, or on the day when I want to enter or exit a swing or long term trade.
Bottom Line: I am bearish soybeans and corn and want to sell rallies when at resistance. I do not want to take the buy signals unless at bracket line supports, and then for only a $.10 or $.15 correction as I have said in the past. I am looking at only swing trades for small gains but would keep a small longer term short position.
July Soybeans for 6/14/10:
Grains: Spot on corn numbers, and not helpful soybean numbers unless you used the 1/2 way rule which was spot on both sides. I liked the way grains finished the week in the plus column, and corn closing near their high, although they could not hurdle my first resistance.
I have the exact same thoughts as I said in yesterday's comments. I would still like to sell resistance levels in soybeans and corn. Funds continue to liquidate their long positions in grains by about 70,000 contracts across the 3 grain markets in the week ending 6/8/10, even though Fund allocation had inflows of $3 billion in the month of May, mostly into precious metals. If we do get adverse weather on the horizon, I expect sidelined money to come quickly back into the shark frenzy of the "what if" crowd.
Producers: Just to give you an idea of what December 2011 corn is going for if you wanted to hedge protecting from $4 to $3, getting your corn back at $5, for a cost of $.11 1/2 plus 4 cents in commissions. This means you have locked in $3.84 1/2 for your corn, and you no longer care what the market does between $3 and $5 until you get the crop out of the ground. Whatever you make or lose from the $3.84 1/2 in your hedge account, is offset by the grain in the bin. If above $5 you get your crop back, and below $3 you have no protection. At any time you can get bullish or bearish or adjust your position. The producers that have been with me since last year before planting know well of the opportunities using options, and how they can improve your original hedge price, and at the same time able to have a good deal of protection to the downside. Having the right to unlimited upside and at the same time being fully protected from $3.84 1/2 to $3 is worth the $.15 1/2 price tag. This strategy also provides a known margin requirement at the time of the hedge and cannot increase no matter how high they market can rally or go down.
Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with.
Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and Natural Gas and Cattle
My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.
Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.
HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,
HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.
$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly
HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00
HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly
Feel free to email with any comments or question you: firstname.lastname@example.org
May Your Next Trade Be The Best
Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.