March Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/9/09
Dec 09, 2009
This report was sent to subscribers on 12/8/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/9/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.
March Corn
After the close on 12/9/09: My resistance was 3.90 1/2, just .01 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 3.79, .00 1/2 from the actual low.
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3.97 1/2 200 Day moving average
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3.90 1/2
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--------------3.84 1/2 Pivot
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3.78 1/2 Support
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3.71 XX Stops Below
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Trend
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5 day chart....….…. Down
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Daily chart ……….Sideways
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Weekly chart …….. Down
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Monthly chart ….... Down $3.97 is the 200 day ma
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ATR 11 1/4 Extremely Oversold 6%
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Green uptrend line is resistance now, downtrend line near $3.70 is now support.
March Corn for 12/9/09
I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".
In my daily numbers on Tuesday my resistance was $.01 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.01 1/2 from the actual low.
Grains: Spot on corn numbers, as well as spot on resistance and helpful support in soybeans.
Corn is still extremely oversold technically even though they were firm on Tuesday. Crude oil corrected 12% coming $10 off their highs, gold retracing the $100 (I was looking for) or 8% from their high, maybe stemming from the dollar showing bottoming action on the chart. This is not helpful for the bulls. I will admit that soybeans seem to defy gravity, and I can make a case for the bulls but not at this price level. To me, the fact that the SF/SH is 8 cents tells me that the high price has produced the farmer selling to fill the pipeline and thus so the basis has weakened. Corn has been in a carry charge for this entire year, with only brief times the spread would narrow a few cents. This could induce more farmers selling of soybeans next year, and get the carry for corn.
Trade is taking off 50 million bushels of corn exports on the report Thursday and adding 40 million bushels of usage for soybeans. This is not the final report and even then (January 2010) it is already expected to be updated once or twice thereafter because of this historic late harvest. I am thinking that the export sales report that comes out every Thursday could be as important this week as the USDA supply/demand report.
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Howard Tyllas
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Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.
