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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

WASDE - 475 October 9, 2009

Oct 09, 2009



45 minutes prior to the opening: I would call the opening mixed maybe better in soybeans and corn, mixed to lower in wheat.


WASDE - 475      October 9, 2009


OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are
projected at 7.7 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month as
larger supplies are only partly offset by increased exports. 
Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 96.1 million tons,
up 0.3 million from last month as higher soybean,
sunflower seed, and canola production more than offset lower
peanut and cottonseed production.  Soybean production is
forecast at a record 3.250 billion bushels, up 5 million from last
month based on higher yields.  The soybean yield is projected
at 42.4 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushels from the previous
estimate.  Total soybean supplies are forecast up 32 million
bushels due to increased crop production and beginning
stocks.  Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to 1.305
billion due to increased supplies, lower prices, and increased
global import demand, mainly for China.  Soybean ending
stocks are projected at 230 million bushels, up 10 million from
last month.

Prices for soybeans and soybean meal are projected lower for
2009/10.  The U.S. season-average soybean price range is
projected at $8.00 to $10.00 per bushel, down 10 cents on both
ends of the range.  The soybean meal price is projected at
$245 to $305 per short ton, down 5 dollars on both ends of the
range.  The soybean oil price range is projected at 32 to 36
cents per pound, unchanged from last month.

Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 425.4
million tons, up 2.6 million from last month.  Increased soybean
and rapeseed production are only partly offset by lower peanut
and cottonseed production.  Global soybean production is
projected higher with increases for the United States,
Argentina, and Paraguay only partly offset by lower production
for China.  Argentina soybean production is raised 1.5 million
tons to 52.5 million due to increased area as producers shift to
soybeans from other crops including corn and sunflower seed. 
China soybean production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 14.5
million due to lower harvested area as producers shifted more
area to corn.  Global rapeseed production is projected higher
mainly on increases for Canada and EU-27.  Production in
Canada is projected at 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million based
on the most recent survey from Statistics Canada.  EU-27
rapeseed production is projected at a record 20.6 million tons,
up 0.6 million.  Global peanut and cottonseed production are
reduced mainly due to lower estimates for both crops for China.
 Other changes include lower sunflower seed production for
Argentina, higher sunflower seed production for EU-27, and
higher cottonseed production for India.

Global oilseed stocks for 2009/10 are raised 4.5 million tons to
66.0 million.  Soybeans account for most of the change, with
increases projected for the United States, Brazil, Argentina,
and China.  Rapeseed stocks for Canada and EU-27 are also
increased.  China soybean imports are raised for 2008/09 and
2009/10 to 40.7 million and 39.5 million tons, respectively.

 

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected
121 million bushels higher this month as increased production
and lower expected use more than offset a 10-million-bushel
reduction in carryin.  Production is raised 36 million bushels
based on the Small Grains 2009 Summary report.  Feed and
residual use is lowered 45 million bushels on lower-than-
expected disappearance during the June-August quarter as
indicated by the September 1 stocks.  Exports are projected 50
million bushels lower as larger supplies in major export
competitors reduce prospects for U.S. wheat shipments.  If
realized, 2009/10 ending stocks would be a 9-year high at 864
million bushels.  The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm
price is projected lower at $4.55 to $5.15 per bushel compared
with $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel last month. 

Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 2.2 million tons
higher as a 4.4-million-ton increase in world production more
than offsets a 2.2-million-ton reduction in beginning stocks.
Foreign production is raised 3.4 million tons with increases in
several major exporting countries.  Production is raised 2.0
million tons for Canada as favorably dry, warm September
weather extended the Prairie growing season by as much as 3
weeks boosting yields for this year’s delayed crop.  Russia
production is increased 1.0 million tons based on higher
reported spring wheat yields, particularly in Siberia.  Production
is raised 0.6 million tons for EU-27 with increases reported for
Poland and Hungary.  Production is increased 0.5 million tons
each for Algeria, Australia, and Kazakhstan.  September rains
were favorable for flowering and heading wheat in Australia’s
western and southern growing areas where higher yields are
expected to more than offset losses from sustained dryness
and heat in eastern growing areas. 

Lower expected production in Brazil and Chile partly offsets
rising output elsewhere.  Brazil production is lowered 1.0 million
tons as continued heavy, late-season rains reduce prospects
for yields and quality.  Chile production is lowered 0.5 million
tons on lower reported area.  A number of small, mostly
offsetting, production changes are made in Sub-Saharan
African countries.

Global wheat trade for 2009/10 is projected higher with much of
the increase reflecting higher projected imports by Brazil and
exports by Canada.  Brazil imports are raised 1.0 million tons. 
Smaller import increases are also made for Bangladesh, Chile,
Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia.  Partly offsetting is a 0.4-million-ton
reduction in imports for Algeria.  Exports are raised 1.5 million
tons for Canada.  Exports also are raised 0.5 million tons each
for Kazakhstan and Ukraine, and 0.4 million tons for Mexico. 
These increases more than offset the 1.4-million-ton reduction
for the United States.  Global consumption is raised 2.1 million
tons with higher expected wheat feeding in China, EU-27,
Brazil, and Russia; and higher food, seed, and industrial use in
Canada, Algeria, and Iran more than offsetting lower feed and
residual use in the United States and Ukraine.  Global ending
stocks are nearly unchanged at 186.7 million tons, up just 0.1
million from last month.

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are
projected higher this month as increased corn and barley
production and higher sorghum beginning stocks more than
offset lower corn carryin and reduced sorghum production. 
September 1 corn stocks, as reported in the September 30
Grain Stocks report, reduced 2009/10 corn beginning stocks as
higher corn use for ethanol, sweeteners, starch, and exports
boosted June-August use.  Corn production for 2009/10 is
forecast 63 million bushels higher with a 2.3-bushel-per-acre
yield increase more than offsetting a 700,000 acre reduction in
harvested area.  Total corn supplies are projected 42 million
bushels higher.

Total U.S. corn use for 2009/10 is increased 5 million bushels. 
Feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels higher
reflecting the higher forecast yield and crop.  Food, seed, and
industrial use is also projected higher, up 5 million bushels, on
higher expected use for sweeteners with tight sugar supplies. 
Offsetting most of the increase in domestic use is a 50-million-
bushel reduction in projected exports.  Increased supplies of
feed grains in Canada and larger world wheat supplies are
expected to increase competition for U.S. corn exports.  Corn
ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 37 million bushels
higher and just below the revised estimate for the 2008/09
marketing year.  The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm
price projection is unchanged at $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel.

Sorghum supplies for 2009/10 are projected 12 million bushels
lower as reduced production more than offsets higher
beginning stocks.  Production is forecast 26 million bushels
lower with reduced area and yields.  Beginning stocks are
estimated 15 million bushels higher based on the September 1
stocks.  Barley supplies for 2009/10 are raised 21 million
bushels based on higher estimated production from the Small
Grains 2009 Summary report.  With a 10-million-bushel
reduction in feed and residual as indicated by the September 1
stocks, ending stocks are projected at a 5-year high, up 31
million bushels from last month.  Projected 2009/10 farm prices
for sorghum, barley, and oats are all unchanged this month;
however, the barley and oats ranges are narrowed.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are increased 4.7
million tons, mostly reflecting higher corn beginning stocks and
increased barley output.  Global corn beginning stocks are
raised 2.2 million tons with upward revisions to 2008/09
production for Brazil and South Africa, and higher reported
stocks for Canada.  Barley production is raised 4.4 million tons
with higher output in Russia, Algeria, EU-27, the United States,
Canada, and Australia.  Global corn production for 2009/10 is
lowered 1.5 million tons with reductions for China, Russia, and
a number of smaller countries only partly offset by increases for
the United States, EU-27, Ukraine, Canada, and several Sub-
Saharan African countries.  China corn production is lowered
5.0 million tons on confirmation that unusual heat and dryness
during late July and early August severely hampered corn
pollination in the western growing areas of the northeast. 
Increased harvested area for China partly offsets this month’s
yield reduction.

World coarse grain imports and exports are both projected
lower for 2009/10 mostly reflecting reduced prospects for U.S.
corn exports, down 1.3 million tons, and lower expected corn
imports by Canada, down 1.5 million tons.  Other mostly
offsetting corn trade changes include lower imports for Chile
and higher imports for Colombia.  Reduced barley exports for
EU-27 are partly offset by an increase for Russia.  Global
coarse grain feeding is raised 3.5 million tons as higher corn
feed and residual use for the United States, China, Brazil, EU-
27, Mexico, Ukraine, and Colombia are only partly offset by
reductions for Canada and Chile.  Barley feeding is raised for
Russia, Algeria, Ukraine, Australia, and Canada.  Global
coarse grain ending stocks are nearly unchanged from last
month as a 2.9-million-ton reduction in corn stocks is more than
offset by a 3.3-million-ton increase in barley stocks.  Global
barley ending stocks are projected at a 5-year high.

RICE:  U.S. rice production in 2009/10 is forecast at 220.6
million cwt, 1 percent above last month due entirely to an
increase in yield.  Average yield is estimated at 7,115 pounds
per acre, up 64 pounds from last month.  Harvested area is
unchanged at 3.10 million acres.  Long-grain production is
forecast at 154.2 million cwt, 1 percent above last month, while
combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at
66.4 million cwt, also up 1 percent.  The total rice export
projection at 96 million cwt is unchanged from a month ago;
however, exports of long-grain are raised 1.0 million, and
combined medium- and short-grain exports are lowered by 1.0
million.  Total rice ending stocks are projected at 46.6 million
cwt, 5 percent above last month.

The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.00 to
$14.00 per cwt, down 65 cents per cwt on both ends of the
range.  The long-grain season-average farm price range is
projected at $11.75 to $12.75 per cwt, down $1.15 per cwt on
each end of the range.  The combined medium- and short-grain
farm price range is projected at $17.50 to $18.50 per cwt, up
$1.25 per cwt on each end.  Large exportable supplies of long-
grain rice among the major Asian exporters, particularly
Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan, will pressure prices, while
tighter global supplies of medium-grain rice will help to support
prices.

Projected global 2009/10 rice production is nearly unchanged
from a month ago; however, there are a number of offsetting
changes.  Production projections are lowered for Bangladesh,
Colombia, the Philippines; but raised for the United States,
China, and a number of Sub-Saharan African countries.  The
2009/10 Bangladesh rice crop is projected at 30.0 million tons,
down 1.0 million from last month.  China’s rice crop is raised
900 thousand tons to 136.0 million, the largest crop since
1999/00. Global exports are projected at 29.8 million tons, up
nearly 0.5 million largely due to an increase for Vietnam. 
Global consumption is up slightly from a month ago with levels
raised for China and a number of countries in Sub-Saharan
Africa; and lowered for Bangladesh, and Indonesia.  Global
ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 85.9 million tons, up
1.0 million from last month, but down 4.8 million from 2008/09.


SUGAR:  Projected 2009/10 U.S. sugar supply is decreased
8,000 short tons, raw value, from last month.  Imports of
specialty sugar, announced in September along with the
2009/10 tariff rate quota, nearly offset lower beginning stocks. 
Projected Louisiana sugar production is unchanged. Despite an
increase in forecast total sugarcane production in Louisiana,
assumed higher use of sugarcane for seed and lower sugar
recovery from sugarcane  are offsetting.

Estimated 2008/09 U.S. sugar supply is reduced 97,000 tons
from last month, based on preliminary full-year data.  Sugar
production is lowered 63,000 tons, mainly due to lower beet
sugar production.  Imports are decreased 34,000 tons as lower
imports under the tariff rate quota more than offset higher other
imports.  On the use side, deliveries for non-food uses are
lowered 14,000 tons based on the pace through August.

Projected 2009/10 Mexico sugar supply is decreased 120,000
metric tons, raw value, from last month.  Production is lowered
100,000 tons in line with producer projections in Mexico. 
Beginning stocks are lowered 20,000 tons, as Mexico=s exports
in 2008/09 were higher than expected.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Total U.S. meat
production for 2009 is raised as higher pork production more
than offsets lower beef and turkey production.  Pork production
is raised mainly due to higher third-quarter slaughter and
significantly higher weights due to favorable summer weather.
The beef production forecast is reduced on lower expected cow
slaughter.  The turkey production forecast is reduced on slightly
lower third-quarter output.  Broiler production is unchanged. 

Meat production forecasts for 2010 are lowered from last month
as higher beef production due to larger feedlot placements in
2009 is more than offset by lower pork and turkey production. 
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on September
25, indicated producers plan to farrow fewer sows during the
remainder of 2009 and into 2010, which, coupled with fewer
imports of hogs from Canada results in a lower production
forecast.  Turkey hatchery data indicates a slower expansion in
production during 2010.  The broiler production forecast is
unchanged from last month.

Red meat and poultry export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are
mostly unchanged from last month. Turkey exports are raised
for 2009.  Import forecasts for beef for both 2009 and 2010 are
reduced reflecting lower expected beef supplies in Oceania. 
Pork import forecasts are raised slightly for 2009.

Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, broilers, and turkeys are
lowered for fourth-quarter 2009.  Weak demand and large
supplies of meat continue to pressure prices.  Prices are
expected to remain under pressure into next year and 2010
forecasts are reduced from last month.  The egg price forecast
is unchanged for fourth-quarter 2009 and throughout 2010.

The milk production forecast is raised for 2009 and 2010 as
milk per cow is forecast higher and the rate of decline in cow
inventories is lowered in 2010.  Import forecasts are raised as
butterfat and cheese imports are stronger than expected. 
Stronger world dairy prices and a weak U.S. dollar are
expected to increase export demand for U.S. dairy products. 
The commercial fat basis export forecast is raised for 2010,
and on a skim-solids basis, commercial exports are raised for
both 2009 and 2010.  Net removals reflect adjustments in CCC
and Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) activities for nonfat
dry milk (NDM), butter, and cheese.  Firmer domestic and
export demands are expected to support prices for cheese,
whey, and NDM.  However, butter prices are forecast lower as
supplies remain large.  Class III prices for 2009 and 2010 are
raised from last month and Class IV prices are raised for 2009.
 The all milk price is forecast at $12.35 to $12.45 per cwt for
2009 and $14.70 to $15.60 for 2010.

COTTON:  The 2009/10 U.S. cotton forecasts include lower
production and offtake compared with last month.  Beginning
stocks are raised marginally to reflect the U.S. Census
Bureau’s final estimate of 2008/09 ending stocks.  Production is
lowered 3.3 percent to 13.0 million.  Texas accounts for most of
the decline; production in the Mississippi Delta states is
reduced 85,000 bales.  Domestic mill use also is lowered,
reflecting the continued sluggish pace of U.S. textile exports. 
Exports of cotton remain unchanged at 10.5 million bales. 
Ending stocks are reduced 200,000 bales to 5.4 million.  The
forecast for the marketing-year average price received by
producers is reduced 2 cents per pound at the top of the range
to 49 to 57 cents.

The world 2009/10 cotton forecasts mainly include small
adjustments, with the most significant changes occurring in the
China balance sheet.  World beginning stocks are raised 1.0
million bales, reflecting higher stocks in China resulting from an
upward revision in 2008/09 production.  A reduction of 1.0
million bales in China’s 2009-crop production forecast more
than offsets the higher beginning stocks; adverse harvest
weather is reported to have affected yield prospects in the
Yangtze region.  Lower production estimated for China, the
United States, and Uzbekistan is partially offset by increases
for India and Argentina.  World consumption, trade, and ending
stocks are virtually unchanged.

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