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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

November Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 9/7/12

Sep 09, 2012

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This report was sent to subscribers on 9/6/12 3:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 9/7/12.

November Soybeans

After the close recap on 9/7/12: My pivot acted as resistance and was 17.52 1/2, .00 1/2 from the actual high, and my support was 17.25 1/4, .01 from the actual low.

All charts and numbers for 9/10/12 have already been sent to subscribers at 7:30 pm.

November Soybeans

17.94 ¾ All Time High
17.89 2012 Contract High
17.69 ¾
-----------17.52 ½ Pivot
17.35 ¼
17.25 ¼
17.16 ½ Use the same numbers as used on 9/6/12
5 day chart... Down from last week same day
Daily chart .... Up
Weekly chart ... Up
Monthly chart ....Up 13.58 is the 200 DMA
ATR 34 Balanced 52%

For 9/7/12: I still say "Last week's low is support near the uptrend line, this week's high resists".

In my daily November soybean numbers on Thursday my pivot acted as resistance and was .01 ¼ from the actual high, my support was .00 ¼ (EXACT in open outcry) from the actual low.

9/7/12:

Grains: Not too much to say that I have not already said, and my thinking we are going to trade sideways in the parameters I outlined have held to be true. Informa comes out today and after today that will have been factored into the last trade price. My focus is on the report, not the guesses what the report will say.

I still say "Unless I see numbers that justify new highs, I want to sell resistances, but will be a willing buyer at significant supports. I want to risk $.06 in corn and $.08 on soybeans using a stop to protect any idea".

9/6/12:

Grains: Soybeans started the week making an all time high, and a day later we have closed lower for the week. Key support is the uptrend line that comes in at $17, and a close below there spells trouble for the bulls. FC Stone came out with numbers after the close and their corn guess is 121.4 BPA with production of 10.607 billion bushels. Soybeans were pegged at 36.7 BPA with production of 2.739 billion bushels.

Corn had its worst close in 3 weeks, and it looks like it is trying to hang around $8 going into the report that the bulls hope will take it higher. My producers continue to hear calls for $10 corn and $20 soybeans from media outlets, brokers, "research firms", and other bulls, and this always troubles me when perspectives are one sided. Even if they get it right and there is less production, which does not guarantee higher prices unless the shortfall is significant. Also, nothing stops the market from going down significantly before the market starts the next leg up, and what bull wants to lose $1 or more and defend their trade idea. In January 1980 I traded gold on the exchange floor in the trading pit when it went to a high of $850, and then it went and traded below $300 an ounce for a few years in the 1990's. It was not until recent years that it came back to $850 before more than doubling that price. What grain bull wants to wait 2 or 3 months in corrective mode before we start to claw back their own money, and maybe need to wait until next year? Not a trader! Maybe an investor, but even investors need a line in the sand, because without some sort of risk protection, you will be only 1 idea away from bankruptcy.

You have until Tuesday to adjust your position before the report on Wednesday, to allow for a limit move either way. Use the time to... SUBSCRIBE NOW!

I called for the highs to be in now, and corn has not made a new high, but soybeans have. I certainly continue that opinion for corn, and I would also say the same for soybeans too even with the record high this week. Unless I see numbers that justify new highs, I want to sell resistances, but will be a willing buyer at significant supports. I want to risk $.06 in corn and $.08 on soybeans using a stop to protect any idea.

9/5/12:

Grains: Grains continue to sell off before the close giving up a big chunk of gains, which is one reason I prefer to take the sell signals for day trades. Soybeans keep making new highs which is a sign rationing might still be taking place; corn has already accomplished that with its sideways pattern. Corn is indeed on hold until more information on production is known, but I view the chart and fundamentals as having more risk to the downside versus more gains to the upside. $8.40 proved to be strong resistance and I would need a new high over $8.49 in order for me to get bullish, I would rather get bullish at a chart support as $7.40 or $6.75.

FC Stone comes out with numbers on Wednesday and Informa on Friday, and hopefully they will push the market to a support or resistance level worth risking $.06 in corn and $.08 in soybeans. Report is on the 12th not on Monday the 10th, so you have a couple of extra days to adjust your position going into that report.

1 producer started his 2013 hedge buying the December 2013 ... (Subscribe now!) I really like the spread and think it is cheap considering what you get.

I continue to prefer taking the sell signals but would day trade without bias and risk $.06 in corn and $.08 in soybeans.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The markets covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, and S&P's.

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Howard Tyllas

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Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com
http://www.futuresflight.com/

Tel. 1-312-823-9189

Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.


 

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