This lean hog and feed commentary contains thoughts from Jeremy Knutson, a commodity broker with Hurley & Associates.
Potential market reaction to the Swine Flu “outbreak”
Initially the market should be defensive in the front months due to the perceived misconception by what I would guess will be an ill-informed public. Objectively speaking the mainstream media will report based on fear with some logic intertwined for the sake of journalistic integrity. The articles tend to give facts as that is what their business is based on, so lets hope they give the swine industry a fair shake and actually research the issue. It is all frustrating to me because the clips that are STILL shown for almost anything to do with mad cow they will show the same clip from the 1990’s in Europe with the one cow that can barely stand.
Okay I am off subject but my point is the media will help dictate market direction; initially I feel the market will be defensive because of the aforementioned fears associated with pork, but in the end if this situation becomes big enough, how many hogs will be killed to control the spread of the disease. These are all rough thoughts and opinions of mine but it is truly what I feel. I am trying to be objective and logical in thinking about situations like this and based off of what I have processed and studied we should see initial panic with selling on Monday morning, April 27th, but I think Monday and Tuesday should cover the selling in my opinion unless we do have a massive outbreak.
Obviously my opinons of this situation will change as more information is released, but from what I know and understand thus far, this is what I believe. One other note, most Doctor’s that have been in interviews haven’t made a big deal of this issue just yet meaning if you get the human form of Swine Flu you are not doomed. Wash your hands, get rest and stay home seems to be the major consensus and it was usually said with a smile. I have created some links to the CDC with more information and they are listed below.
CDC - Health Advisory - Official release from CDC
CDC - Swine Flu Investigation - Updated number of human swine flu cases in the U.S.
CDC - Swine Flu in Pigs & People - informational brochure
CDC - Swine Flu and You - What is swine flu?
CDC - Key Facts about Swine Influenza (Swine Flu)
Hurley and Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability, marketing strategy, and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to past performance.
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