The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Grain Gap Lower in the Overnight
Jul 21, 2014
This morning all the grains are trading lower as ideal weather during pollination weighs heavily on the market. September corn is trading down 6 cents, September wheat is down 3 ¾ cents and August soybeans is trading 4 ¾ cents lower.
This afternoon’s crop progress report should show unchanged conditions ratings and nearly 50% of the corn and soybean crop entering the reproductive phases. Weather looks to remain very favorable for the remainder of the week with NOAA and private analysts both expecting cool temperatures across much of the grain belt. Showers should be light and intermixed, continuing to support soil moisture.
The longer term outlook remains favorable, with the 8-14 day forecast from Planalytics projecting below average temperatures and above average precipitation for the majority of the grain belt. This is confirmation of NOAA’s projections from last week for a cool, wet, August for the U.S. grain belt.
New crop soybeans are now 6 cents away from the low printed at $10.65 per bushel following the last USDA supply and demand report. Since then new crop soybeans rallied to $11.18 ¾ last Thursday, helped to its high on Thursday by the Malaysian airlines incident over eastern Ukraine. The geopolitical event was used as a selling opportunity after the initial reaction sent soybean prices higher. Keep a close watch on new crop soybeans around $10.65 which should act as a strong support level during today’s trade.
Over the weekend France and Germany both received precipitation that stopped fieldwork during harvest. The moisture throughout Europe during harvest has caused quality concerns for the wheat in that region. This is has been an ongoing story this year for European wheat and the U.S markets are unlikely to respond to it in any kind of meaningful way.
On the demand side this morning we have some action. Export sales of 135,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to unknown destinations for new crop delivery and 120,000 metric tons of old crop soybeans to China. On the global front, Turkey’s state grain agency issued an international tender to import 165,000 metric tons of milling wheat and 65,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.