EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 2-27-2012
Feb 27, 2012
Soybeans led the way higher to start the weak with old crop settling above the 200 day moving average for the first time since September of last year. March beans finished 14 ¾ cents higher at $12.93 ¾, March corn 3 ¾ higher at $6.44 ½, and March wheat 4 ¾ cents higher at $6.45 ¾.
Old crop beans have been the upside leader lately as South American production concerns still are dictating trade. We can see this in the weekly Commitment of Traders report which shows the "managed money" decreasing net longs in corn, increasing their shorts in wheat, and increasing their longs in soybeans, soyoil, and soymeal. Today we actually made it back to the 50% retracement for soybeans. The 62.5% retracement level is approximately $13.34 which may be the next major target the market tries to reach before we find more resistance. I have included a chart of March beans which shows these targets.
There are 2 days left in February to set the Spring Federal Crop Insurance price levels. At this point we really can’t see much of a change in these prices as they are pretty much set at approx $5.67 ½ for corn and $12.53 for soybeans.
The next USDA Supply and Demand report will be released next Friday, March 9th. The report that could show the most surprises is the March Planting Intention Report on March 30th. Now that we are back to a corn-bean ratio of 2.30 (new crop) we could see some of those acres start to move back to soybeans
Please contact an EHedger broker to get a second opinion on your marketing plan using our proprietary Farm Marketing Software. Have a great week!!!
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