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October 2012 Archive for Grain Hedge

RSS By: Brock Schimbeno, AgWeb.com

Grain Hedge is a self-directed discount brokerage that saves farmers money when trading in the futures and options market. For $7 commissions per side producers can execute their marketing strategy with authority, any time the markets trade.

Grains Rally, SA Gets More Rain, Delayed Report Schedule

Oct 31, 2012

Grains are picking up steam with corn, soybeans, and wheat all picking up double digit gains at the time of this post. Continued concerns over Chinese production, South American planting progress, and a reported sale of 25,000 metric tons of soybean oil to China for 12/13 have all been supporting the soy complex this morning. Not a lot of fundamentals drivers out this morning, due to Hurricane Sandy we have seen delays in both EIA Ethanol Numbers and the weekly Export Sales Report. Below is a table showing reports coming down the pipe this week.

Thursday 11/01 EIA Ethanol Numbers
ADP Unemployment
Friday 11/02 Export Sales Report
Non-Farm Payrolls
Unemployment


grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Evening Grain Report - 10/30/12

Oct 30, 2012

EGR1030

Screencapture from 5:02 PM Central Time

Equity futures are drifting higher this evening with expectations for both the NYSE and NASDAQ to be open for business tomorrow. The grain market will stay focused on South American planting progress for the remainder of the week, with continuing issues lending support to the corn and soy markets. Technically we are looking for the 100 day moving average to provide resistance to the January soybean contract and support to the December corn contract. Overall, many traders are looking for a sideways market into the November 9 USDA reports but don't be surprised by big moves, especially with next Tuesday's US Elections.

We normally get EIA ethanol production numbers on Wednesday, but those have been delayed untill later in the week due to Hurricane Sandy. Want to watch these markets and place your own trades for $7 commissions per side during the night session? Click Here to take a demo and get started tonight!

GHSidebyside

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR FULL RISK DISCLOSURE.

 

Grains Bounce Off Technical Support

Oct 30, 2012

Grains are trading higher in Chicago, at the time of this post up 7 cents on DEC corn, 13 1/4 cents on NOV soybeans, and down 1-3 cents on Wheat. Keep in mind tomorrow is FIRST NOTICE day for the November soybean contract so it is time to start rolling to a more deferred month. Hurricane Sandy continues to dominate headlines and keep a lid on volume in the grain market. NYSE is closed once again today, and we have news that Wednesday's EIA ethanol numbers will be delayed. Expect trading to open tomorrow on both NYSE and NASDAQ.

South America remains extremely wet as producers struggle to get corn and soybeans planted. Today Oilworld voiced concern over South American soybean production expectations in light of the slow pace of planting. Piling on the bullish news for soybeans was the Chinese Ag Minister pegging their soybean crop at just 9.8 MMT, nearly 3 MMT lower than the USDA's expectations.

Wheat continues to trade at the low side of its recent range, with the 100 day moving average sitting at 854 on the December contract. A similar situation is shaping up with corn now trading against the 100 day moving average which sits at 735.

Tune in to GrainTV for a complete breakdown of today's action! (double-click for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

As Sandy Closes Markets, Grains Trade Lower

Oct 29, 2012

News of NYSE equity markets closed today have dominated headlines, with grains, meats, metals, and crude oil all remaining open. Volume has been very light today, and the time of this post we see soybeans leading grains lower -- Down 31 cents on the November contract. This morning Brock and Logan discuss the market closures and expectations for South American weather.

(double-click for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

GrainTV Weekly Analysis and Cash Market Insights

Oct 26, 2012

Cody and Logan review changing conditions in South America and the domestic cash market.

(double-click for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Weak Corn Demand Continues to Pressure Market

Oct 25, 2012

First, ethanol use of corn is running behind the seasonal pace to meet current USDA expectations. Our models are indicating that if the current use of corn for ethanol continues we will fall about 125 million bushels short of current USDA projections. Feed demand is another area of concern as the Cattle on Feed report from last week showed significantly lower placement figures than last year at the same time. Export sales for corn and soybeans were disappointing this week coming in below expectations. Wheat was the lone bright spot as far as exports were concerned, exceeding expectations.

Demand Analysis on Today's GrainTV

grain hedge topper

Despite weak sales this week, corn and beans are still ahead of pace to meet current USDA projections mostly due to pre-sales from last year, but have slowed drastically over the last several weeks. It is interesting however; that corn export inspections (the amount actually being shipped) is lagging behind the pace needed to meet current estimates. Bottom line is that demand destruction has taken place for corn at these price levels and prices need to move lower to spur more robust demand.

Technically speaking, for soybeans the November contract is meeting heavy resistance in the $15.65 to $15.70 area on the daily chart. Providing resistance is the 100- day moving average and in the area is the bottom of the range that was traded in July and August. It will most likely take a weather development from South America or stronger outside markets to push past this level with conviction. In the short term, the upside potential is rather limited for soybeans.

Looking ahead to Friday, we get the options expiration for November contracts and the third quarter gross domestic product figures will be released at 7:30 AM central time.


THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Trade Lower--What Are Fundamentals Indicating?

Oct 25, 2012

This morning we discuss reported USDA Export Sales and our outlook for the corn and soybean market.

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Where Are Ethanol Numbers / Export Sales Pushing Corn Prices?

Oct 24, 2012

This morning we look at today's EIA Ethanol numbers and forward to tomorrow's Export Sales Report!

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Eurozone Pressures Market Lower across the Board...Buy the Dip?

Oct 23, 2012

This morning we discuss our outlook on the November soybean contract, crop progress, and what is coming down the line this week for the grain market.

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Basis Firms In Cash Market as Harvest Comes to an End

Oct 22, 2012

This morning on GrainTV we discuss South American precip and a budding rally in soybeans.

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Fundamentals Remained Mixed With Friday's Reports

Oct 19, 2012

Brock and Logan talk Informa numbers, production estimates out of South America, and if producers should look at pricing some of the 2013/14 crop.

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Rally -- Can Ethanol/Export Numbers Support This Corn Market?

Oct 18, 2012

This morning Brock and Logan discuss USDA Export Sales and the pace of ethanol production as grains pick up ground.

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Dollar Continues Lower -- Grains Wait For Fundamentals

Oct 17, 2012

Cody and Logan look at the dollar index, ethanol numbers, and how these are going to impact corn demand.

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Mixed Trade Across The Grains As Harvest Pace Comes Under Pressure

Oct 16, 2012

Brock and Logan discuss crop progress, South American soil moisture, and expectations for this corn market.

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Continue Lower -- Soybean Fundamentals Remain Strong

Oct 15, 2012

Brock and Logan discuss this morning's NOPA numbers, export inspections, and technicals on this November soybean contract.

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Sharp Selling in Chicago--Cash Market Remains Strong

Oct 12, 2012

Brock and Logan discuss export sales one day after the big October USDA report. Corn and beans both dissapointed the market, and we now see futures selling off sharply. Where are we headed and what is the cash market telling us

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

What Should Producers Take Away From USDA Report Numbers?

Oct 11, 2012

Cody and Logan breakdown the numbers from this morning's USDA Report and give their take on what these numbers, and today's price action, are telling us.

(double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

USDA Report Analysis

Oct 11, 2012

The Numbers:

Production
Corn: 10.706 billion bushel vs 10.601 expected
Soybeans: 2.86 billion bushel vs 2.764 expected

Yield
Corn: 122 BPA vs 122.88 expected
Soybeans: 37.8 BPA vs 37 expected

Ending Stocks
Corn: 619 million bushel vs 648 expected
Soybeans: 130 million bushel vs 134 expected

Other Important Numbers
Soybeans exports for 12/13 raised by 210 million bushel
1.1 million acres added to 12/13 soybean harvested acreage

Breakdown:
Once again we saw a wide range printed in the first 20 minutes of trading (picture below) before the market settled into a trade range. At the time of this post we see corn up 25 cents, soybeans up 30 cents, and wheat trailing - up 9 in Chicago and 11 in Kansas City.

Ending stocks for soybeans came in 2% below market expectations while corn was 4% lower than market expectations. We saw dramatic revisions to projected soybean export sales (1.1 million bushel higher) and projected corn export sales (1 million bushel lower) which reflects the sluggish pace for corn in recent weeks and a soybean export market that remains red hot.

Bulls are looking for a substantial harvested acreage revision in coming reports, where as the bears are looking at this report as providing little bullish news and this rally being pushed by short covering.

Want the platform you see below in your home or office? Click the image to sign up for a no-obligation trial that will let you experience live quotes for yourself.

beans

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Crop Conditions, Analyst Expectations Drive Soybeans Lower

Oct 10, 2012

Brock and Cody look at Crop Progress and Conditions. Today's analysts also review the estimates for tomorrow's reports. Soybeans are examined from a technical standpoint too. Tune in for the full breakdown! (double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Move Higher -- What To Expect Out Of FSU And South America on Thursday

Oct 09, 2012

Brock and Logan look at international production figures as we approach Thursday USDA report. Tune in for the full breakdown! (double-click video for full screen)

grain hedge topper 

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

USDA Report Expectations

Oct 08, 2012

Thursday's USDA Reports
Supply and Demand & Crop Production
Released at 7:30 AM Central Time

Below are analyst expectations for production and ending stocks coming into the report, and how this compared to the USDA's September projections. Brock and Logan discuss these numbers in detail on this morning's GrainTV.

grain hedge topper

Production

Corn Soybeans
Range 9.960-11.194 2.630-2.903
Avg. Analyst Guess 10.601 2.759
USDA September 10.727 2.634
*Billion Bushels
Ending Stocks Corn Soybeans
Range 454-815 98-203
Avg. Analyst Guess 648 134
USDA September 733 115
*Million Bushels

 

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Soybeans Continue Higher Even as Private Analysts Look for Larger 2012 Crop

Oct 05, 2012

Brock and Logan discuss Lanworth and Informa numbers released this morning, weekend weather, and where this soybean market might be headed. Have a great weekend.

(double-click for fullscreen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Export Sales Push Soybeans Higher; Bulls Returning to This Market?

Oct 04, 2012

Cody and Logan discuss this morning's export sales, ethanol data, and where this soybean market is headed!

(double-click for fullscreen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Soybeans Finding a Bottom at $15/bu.?

Oct 03, 2012

This morning Brock and Logan look at FC Stone yield estimates and the November soybean chart from a technical aspect.

(double-click for fullscreen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Continue Lower as Harvest Pace Picks Up

Oct 02, 2012

Brock and Logan discuss crop progress and look at technical levels that should provide support to this collapsing soybean market.

(double-click for fullscreen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Corn Holds On as Wheat and Beans Move Sharply Lower

Oct 01, 2012

This morning Cody and Logan discuss sharp selling in the wheat and soybean market and where this market might be headed. Tune in for the full report!

(double-click for fullscreen)

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

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