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February 2012 Archive for Grain Hedge

RSS By: Brock Schimbeno, AgWeb.com

Grain Hedge is a self-directed discount brokerage that saves farmers money when trading in the futures and options market. For $7 commissions per side producers can execute their marketing strategy with authority, any time the markets trade.

Soybeans Gap Lower to Start the Overnight Session

Feb 29, 2012

The grains have backed off across the board from their close of the day session. We are now looking at corn down 3¾, soybeans down 8 and Chicago wheat down 6½ to start the night session.

Take a look at a 5-minute May soybean chart. We gapped lower to open the night session after the RSI reached 78 today following several weeks of gains. Want to watch these markets trade live even during the night session? Take a demo of the Firetip platform this evening and get started!

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5minbean

trading matrix

GrainHedgelogo                                                                                   

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

 

27 Period RSI Reaches 77 For May Soybeans

Feb 29, 2012

Here about an hour into the day session we are looking at a mix trade across the grains. Corn is down 2 3/4, soybeans up 2 3/4, and when down 6 in KC and 5 in Chicago.

Soybeans have been leading the charge higher in recent weeks, and looking at the 27 period RSI on the May contract it has reached 77 today. Technicians look at 70 being oversold territory, so there have to be a lot of spec traders out there looking for a correction to the recent trend. China was back in the old crop soybean market this morning, purchasing 175,000 tonnes soybeans for 2011/2012 delivery.

Outside markets look relatively calm today, and from the screen capture below you can see that both oil and gold are selling off slightly for March delivery. If you want to get these markets live in your home today, take a demo of the Firetip trading platform!

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GrainHedgelogo                                                                                           

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Soybeans Lead Charge Higher, Watch 1300 Today

Feb 28, 2012

GrainTV watched the markets open this morning with beans backing off their highs from the overnight. At the time of this post we see March beans at 1300 1/2, and it will be important to watch the close. This morning Brock and Logan look at soybean technicals, Brazil production projections, and drought conditions across the northern plains with a snow storm on the horizon. Tune in for the full report!

Want to watch the grains trade live and place your own trades? Take a demo of Firetip today!

GrainHedgelogo                                                                                           

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

 

GrainTV AM Report 02/28/12

Feb 28, 2012

March Soybeans are the big story from the overnight session, up 7 and closing at 1300 3/4. Here are the stories we are watching today as we move towards the market open. Want to watch these markets trade live? Take a demo of Firetip today!

GrainHedgelogo                                                                                           

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Soybeans Hit Fresh 5-Month High

Feb 27, 2012

Today, we saw May soybeans hit a fresh 5-month high after breaking through resistance in the 1290 area.  The chart below taken from our Firetip trading platform shows this new high as we finished the day above 1300.  Soybeans have had quite a run-up lately which calls to our attention the Relative Strength Index (RSI).  This indicator is found on the bottom of this chart and is one of the many indicators producers can follow using the Firetip software.  When RSI reaches the 70 level the market is said to be overbought.  As of this writing, May Soybeans are currently at a 64.1 on the RSI chart.  A correction could be in the near future as this contract becomes over bought.  The 1300 area will likely prove to be a battleground and a psychological barrier for traders to overcome.  If you would like to follow this contract in your home or office, give one of our brokers a call at 877-472-4607 or sign up for a demo below.

Soybeans broken resistance

GrainHedgelogo                                                                   FTbutton                         

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Have A Mixed Week, Soybeans Take Ground

Feb 24, 2012

On the weekly wrap-up edition of GrainTV Brock and Cody discuss weekly export figures, announcements from the USDA Outlook Forum, and weekly price action. Tune in for the full report!

Soybeans Picking Up Ground

Feb 24, 2012

The export sales report this morning confirmed recent strength in the soybean market, with 1,159,400 MT of soybeans reported for Feb 10-16. The Chinese were a large purchaser of old crop soybeans, purchasing 521,100 MT during a visit by Vice President Xi Jinping to Iowa.

At the time of this post we see DEC 12 corn down 7 while NOV 12 beans are up 1 cent. In recent weeks the ratio between these contracts has exploded, with new crop soybeans now trading at 2.3 times that of new crop corn. The trade is looking at 2.4 as an area where soybeans will be very competitive for many farmers to plant, especially those facing corn-on-corn decisions.

If you want to chart this ratio yourself, take a demo of Firetip today!

spreadchart

button(4)                                                                                         

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

 

 

Corn/Soybean Spread Widens--Keep an Eye on Acreage Report

Feb 23, 2012

This morning Cody and Logan discuss export sales reported by the Foreign Ag Service, the soybean / corn spread, and chart landscape on the dollar index. Tune in for the full report!

GrainHedgelogo                                                                                          

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Old Crop/New Crop Corn Spread Meeting Resistance

Feb 22, 2012

There has been a lot of talk surrounding the old crop/new crop spread in corn. Currently, the spread between July and December futures is sitting at 79 3/4 to the July side.  Below is a chart of this spread taken from our Firetip trading software. As you can see, we are sitting right below the 80 cent mark after being as high as 127 cents in late August.  The spread is meeting resistance around the 80 cent mark as this level has been tested several times in the last few months.  We could see this spread widen into planting season and through the summer.  If you would like to track the old crop/new crop relationship in your own home or office, simply take a demo by clicking the button below or give us a call at 877-472-4607.

July Dec corn spread 

 

GrainHedgelogo                                                                  FTbutton                         

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE

Corn, Wheat Trade Lower in Early Action

Feb 21, 2012

At the time of this post we see corn down 14, soybeans unchanged, and Chicago wheat down 17. The Foreign Ag Service reported some sales this morning of corn and soybeans, but that doesn't look to be lending much support to grain prices in the early going. Tune in to this morning's GrainTV for a full report!

GrainHedgelogo                    

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

GrainTV AM Report 02/21/12

Feb 21, 2012

Greece got their bailout this morning, and at the moment the dollar index is down 1/3 of a percent. Grains were mixed and we are seeing gold up and crude oil down slightly in the overnight session.

GrainHedgelogo                    

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

China Buys More Beans, Beans Gaining Ground Vs. Corn

Feb 17, 2012

Logan and Cody break down price action from the grain market this week. We saw corn up 7, soybeans up 28 3/4, and Chicago wheat down 6 1/4 on the week. The big news was a large quantity of soybeans sold to China for 2012/2013 delivery. Tune in for the full report!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Macros Positive, Grain Mixed

Feb 16, 2012

The equity markets have taken center stage this week as several key indexes have reached multiyear highs.  The Dow is up 102.85 as of the close Thursday settling at 12,904.08.  Oil has risen due to Middle East instability and is up $3.29 a barrel to close today at $102.28.  Gold has found some buyers climbing $7.40 an ounce to end trade today at $1,730.  The dollar index has benefited from Greece debt uncertainties, which has pressured commodities.  The grains are mixed so far this week.

Corn has fought a two-sided battle this week but is ultimately up 4 ½ cents to finish trade at $6.36 ¼ on the March contract.  Demand concerns stemming from large ethanol stocks and feed competition from wheat sent the market to multi-week lows before turning around Thursday.  Today, better than expected export sales sent the market higher and were reported as 1,005,900 MT, which is up 44.9% from last week.  South American weather remains a concern.

Soybeans have been the leader to the upside as Chinese demand prospects were heightened after visits from some top tier officials.  The oilseed is up 29 ¼ cents to settle at $12.58 ¼ on the March contract.  Soybeans are trying to buy acres this spring and the ratio between new crop soybeans and new crop corn is the highest it’s been since July.  South American production remains a concern for the market.  Export sales were disappointing at 436,700 MT, which is down 27.6% from last week.

Wheat has been the weakest of the grains losing 2 cents on the March CBOT contract to finish trade today at $6.28.  There continues to be a large supply of wheat on the world market and more recently Australia revised their production estimates higher.  Despite a stronger dollar index, U.S. wheat is the most competitive in the marketplace evidenced by two sales to Egypt.  Export sales were reported as 420,400 MT, which is down 40.6% from last week.

The Dow and other indices have reached multiyear highs which have gathered many traders’ attentions.  Grains have been mixed this week with corn and soybeans rallying, while wheat has fallen slightly.  Demand and weather concerns have been a mainstay over the last several weeks.  Looking ahead, traders and producers will focus on planting intentions and the South American harvest.

GrainHedgelogo                                                                  FTbutton                           

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Exports for Corn/Soybeans Paint Different Demand Picture

Feb 16, 2012

On this morning's GrainTV Brock and Cody look at the weekly export sales report, techinicals, and the dollar index. Tune in for the full report!

GrainHedgelogo                                                                  

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Soybeans Stay Positive, Corn / Wheat Trade Lower

Feb 14, 2012

This morning fundamentals are supporting soybean futures, at the time of this post we see March Soybeans up 3 3/4 to 12 55 3/4 as the rest of the grains trade lower. Brock and Logan discuss South American weather, technicals, and export sales data on this morning's GrainTV

Soybeans Show Strength Overnight

Feb 14, 2012

This morning Brock broke down what to look for in today's grain trade. Euro-zone concerns persist, and we see news out of Australia that their wheat crop may be larger than projected.

March Soybeans Making a Run at 1250

Feb 13, 2012

At the time of this post we see March soybeans up 20 3/4 cents to 1249 3/4. The size column here is showing about 490 sell orders sitting at 1250. This isn't much upside resistance, but it will be important to watch the close if we do penetrate 1250 today. Find us on twitter, @GrainTV, to get live market updates sent to your phone as the markets trade!

Want to get the platform you see below on your home computer? Take a demo today!

beansAT

GrainHedgelogoFTbutton                                                                   

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains End the Week Down -- Cash Market Remains Red-Hot

Feb 10, 2012

Grains ended the week down across the board. This afternoon on "GrainTV," Brock and Logan discuss the cash market, export sales and the weather outlook for both the Black Sea and South America.

GrainHedgelogo                                                                                         

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Sell Off after USDA Reports

Feb 09, 2012

 

The grain markets fell after the most recent USDA reports were published today.  The Dow, however, is up 28.23 points to close Thursday at 12,890.46 after Greece’s debt issues were resolved for the time being.  Oil followed on increased demand prospects adding $1.99 a barrel to close at $99.72 today.  Gold has met resistance in the $1,750 area ultimately ending trade at $1,731.90 Thursday, up $3.60 an ounce this week.  The dollar index has fallen modestly as the Euro has rallied.  The grains have been hurt the most.

Corn had choppy, sideways trade for most of the week in anticipation of the USDA reports to be released today.  After the release, corn moved to its highest point in several weeks only to sell off into the close.  Overall, the grain is down 7 ½ cents for the week settling at $6.37 on the March contract today.  Export projections were increased 50 million bushels, while ending stocks were lowered by 45 million bushels.  Weekly export sales were reported as 694,100 MT, which is down 23.9% from last week.

Soybeans like corn were fairly quiet this week, but Thursday changed that pattern.  The oilseed traded in a wide 25 cent range after the report was released.  Little was changed in the reports leaving the market searching for a direction.  Chinese demand prospects are providing underlying fundamental support, though exports are far behind the pace needed to meet the USDA projections.  Export sales this week were reported as 603,200 MT, which is up 95.6% from last week.

Wheat received the biggest surprise in the reports Thursday as ending stocks were reduced by an unanticipated 25 million bushels.  However, global ending stocks were revised higher to an all-time record.  This revision sent the grain down sharply and for the week is off 14 ¾ cents to $6.46 on the March CBOT contract.  Export projections were raised 25 million bushels due to better than anticipated sales to date.  For the week, export sales were report as 707,900 MT, which is up 36.4% from last week.

The most recent fundamental news was released this morning and the grain markets rose only to fall sharply later.  A mid-session reversal came sending the markets ultimately lower on the day and for the week.  The outside markets have been mostly positive this week as debt concerns in Greece have subsided for the time being.  Producers and traders will now begin to focus on this summer’s crop and the Planting Intentions report to be released on March 30th.

 

GrainHedgelogo                                                                  FTbutton                           

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Have Mixed Reaction To USDA WASDE Report

Feb 09, 2012

At the time of this post we see a mixed trade as the market digests the figures from this morning's WASDE report. The report was neutral to slightly bullish for most grains, tune in for Cody and Logan's take on where the trade is headed from here!

GrainHedgelogo

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

USDA WASDE Ending Stocks: Beans Unchanged, Supportive for Corn / Wheat?

Feb 09, 2012

This morning's WASDE report figures just came out and we took a minute to break down ending stocks figures.

100 Day MA Holds, Sideways Trade Moving Towards Thursday

Feb 07, 2012

The grains are trading mostly unchanged this morning, at the time of this post we see corn down 2 1/2, soybeans down 1 1/4, and Chicago wheat down 1. We have really seen volume taper off in the last three trade sessions as traders wait to see the data from Thursday's WASDE report. We are looking for a neutral to bullish report, but the January 12 report confirmed that it is anybody’s guess.

From a technical standpoint, we have completed a near 100% retracement of the sell-off on January 12th, and we see the 100 day moving average providing support in the last several trade sessions. These technical levels won't stand in the way of a bearish report tomorrow, but they are interesting to look at as we move towards planting.

If you are interested in the live quotes, charting, and order entry the Firetip platform provides, take a demo today!

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C2Hchart

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

COT Report Shows Funds Heavy On Corn Spreads

Feb 03, 2012

This afternoon's COT Report showed managed money heavily invested in corn spreads, with nearly double the positions of both the "swap dealer" and "other reportable" portion. You can see from the chart below that spread trading among the funds has increased two-fold since August, and this week's COT report showed they are adding on new spread positions at an increasing rate.

Intra-commodity spreads, especially the old crop / new crop corn spread seem to be a hot topic right now, so it is not surprising to see this explosion in fund spreading. With this large quantity of managed money spreads in the market, traders should keep in mind what will happen to these spreads when funds "un-wind" their positions.

If you are a producer who would like to chart or trade these spreads using live quotes in your home today, take a demo of the Firetip trading platform!

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2 3COT

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

 

Mixed Trade to Begin February

Feb 02, 2012

 

It’s Ground Hog Day, the day when Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his den and gives his prediction on when winter will end.  He saw his shadow, so only 6 weeks of winter remain.  The equity and commodity markets have started out mixed to begin February, however.  The Dow is up 46.62 points to 12,707.08 after choppy, mostly sideways trade for the week.  Oil is off $2.99 a barrel to settle at $96.64 today.  Gold is up another $24.80 an ounce to $1,762.20 as the dollar index has risen slightly.  The agricultural commodities were mixed as well.

Corn is up 1 ¼ cents to finish trade today at $6.43 on the March contract.  The market is searching for a direction after much needed rain hit South America and technical resistance areas have proven tough to get over.  Not much fundamentally has changed leading to the choppy trade.  Export sales again exceeded expectations at 912,000 MT, which is off 4.8% from last week.

Soybeans are down 2 cents for the week to end trade Thursday at $12.17 on the March contract.  A large sell-off Monday was followed by two days of rallying as weather concerns in South America have subsided for the time being.  Despite recent strength in this market, underlying fundamentals remain weak.  Evidence of this weakness comes from subpar exports.  Export sales again missed their target and were reported as 308,400 MT, which is down 33.9% from last week.

Wheat has been the leader to the upside over the last couple of weeks with this week being no different.  The grain is up 15 ½ cents on the CBOT March contract to settle at $6.62 ¾ today.  Concerns surrounding Russian and Black Sea wheat exports have stemmed from a bitterly cold front hitting the winter wheat growing regions.  Adding to this concern is the possibility of an export ban or export levies to be imposed on wheat leaving the region.  Both factors have yet to be fully realized by the market.  Export sales were routine again at 518,900 MT, which is down 14.2% from last week.

The markets have done little to start the month of February, but the good news so far is that there is only 6 weeks of winter left according to Punxsutawney Phil.  Weather concerns have moved from South America to the Black Sea region in Europe.  Wheat has been the leader to the upside while corn and soybeans have followed.  With only a few weeks left in winter, producers and traders are looking forward to planting and the important Planting Intentions report due out on March 30th.

 

GrainHedgelogo                                                                  FTbutton                           

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Dollar Index Finding a Bottom?

Feb 01, 2012

Today we take a look at the Dollar Index following two weeks of selling. This has certainly helped grains rebound after the January 12th USDA WASDE report, and the relative strength of the Dollar will impact export sales as we move toward planting.

Technical Landscape

On January 19th we broke below support that was established back in early October. Since this move, the Dollar index has traded lower 5 of 9 trade days, with the biggest moves being to the downside. In the last three trade sessions we have deviated from this new downward trend, and the dollar index looks to be settling into a range between 78.5 and 79.5 that we traded during November.

You can see from the RSI on this chart that this contract is still not oversold. At the time of this post the RSI is at 39, and technical traders look for a move below 30 before considering a contract to be in over-sold territory.

These technical levels won't be able to stop any big news out of the Euro-zone, but they can be useful when thinking about near-term price action. If you would like to get the Firetip platform shown below in your home today, click the red button below to start your demo!

FTbutton

D2H

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

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