The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.
It would be interesting to know how many old crop soybeans are left to sell. Most everybody Ive talked to sold when they were 12, 13, and almost fourteen dollars last year when prices were higher. Than when market reached 10 and eleven this year most sold out. I think the crop size last year might be a little bit overstated. The yield reports last year just werent there. Just an opinion.
The problem is that a lot of producers are holding a very small amount of old crop soybeans as "lottery tickets". What price does it take to get those soybeans to move? My guess is that most of those farmers never sell those bushels.
I think producers are looking at last years contract prices and were still a long ways from those prices. We have fundamentals in old crop where I think they feel prices should reach last years JTune contract prices. Coffee shop talk I get ridiculed for having a few left. Why didnt you sell more last year when you could contract for 13 and 14 dollars. Ive tried to explain to them weve all done this before. But I also tried to explain to them the fundamentals and supply demand should dictate the highest prices weve ever seen in history. If were already price rationing. I think all farmers holding beans feel last years prices should be attainable this spring for old crop soys.