Many were caught off guard today!
Jan 12, 2010
The bulls said they were going to get their positions evened out before the report, but the increase in open interest over the last two weeks suggests they have been steadily buying corn. Today’s report has now caught even the most hardened bull off guard. Not only do we have better stocks in both corn and soybeans; but we have experienced stronger than expected yields for an overall increase in supply. The haymaker, however, was the big surprise reduction in planted wheat acres, down in excess of 6.3 million acres. This acreage is essentially going to go directly into corn and soybean production. Short-term the question will be how low the bulls will allow prices to go before getting out. We could easily see a 3- to 5-week period of extremely negative bearish tone for the corn and soybean complex.
Feed buyers and any speculative bulls waiting for opportunities to buy inventory prior to the normal seasonal bounce into spring should focus on getting something done by the early part of February. Bottomline: If an excessively oversold situation develops in late January to early February, take it and do not wait until mid-February.
We will go into more depth in our online advisory service but overall the bears are going to feed on the bulls’ carcass for much of the next two months. It’s going to take a surge in the outside markets plus a solid concern about weather to get prices back to levels seen yesterday!
I encourage everyone to get their market plan written down now for the 2010 and 2011 crops. Only by knowing where you want to get to, does one have any hope of accomplishing their objectives. If you are need help, call us at (800) 832-1488 [Rowland & Laura] or at (877) 898-4324 [Bob].
Bob’s Upcoming Speaking Engagements: Periodically go to www.utterbackmarketing.com and click on “Upcoming Seminars.”
January 2010: Orlando, FL ... New Bern, NC … Louisville, KY … Indianapolis, IN.
February 2010: Louisville, KY … Anaheim, CA.
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.