PFA Pioneer Blog
Market "zeroing-in" on crop size
Nov 02, 2011
Pro Farmer Extra
- From the Editors of Pro Farmer newsletter
Market "zeroing in" on crop size
Nov. 2, 2011
After a long, stressful and way-to-eventful growing season, most of the U.S. corn and soybean crops have been harvested. As USDA's NASS is collecting data for the Nov. 9 Crop Production Report, more than 90% of the U.S. corn crop has been harvested along with more than 95% of the U.S. soybean crop. That's enough progress to basically call next week's corn and soybean yield estimates the "final" estimates. Or... at least it should be...
Initial expectations on the 2011 corn crop yield ahead of the November Crop Production Report put the yield at about 148 - 150 bu. per acre; soybean yield at about 41.8 - 42.3 bu. per acre. That means yield expectations are very similar to Pro Farmer's Aug. 26 yield estimates of 147.9 bu. per acre on corn and 41.8 bu. per acre on soybeans. We mention that only to stress the 2011 harvest season was "good." Some winds in the northeast Corn Belt knocked some corn to the ground, but it was generally a good harvest season and growers were able to harvest what was in the field. Thankfully, the harvest season was not long, stressful or way-to-eventful!
The reason we said the November corn and soybean crop estimates should be close to the "final" estimates is simple. The crop estimates could change in January based on the Dec. 1 Grain Stocks tally. The supply-side of the market is "driven" by grain stocks... and "backed out" to production... which then leads to a final "total supply" for the 2011-12 marketing year. So... while we should know the size of the corn crop next week, the unfortunately reality is the estimate could change again after the next Grain Stocks Report. Lets hope NASS's bushel-counting doesn't ignite the kind of market reaction in January as it has over the last several quarters.
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