Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for March 23, 2017.
Grain markets are mostly steady with soybeans holding consolidation support levels. Outside markets are showing a back and fill attitude as crude oil, the US Dollar and stock indices are a bit higher.
Weekly export sales report will be released at 7:30 am. Trade estimates are: corn 900,000 to 1,200,000 tonnes, wheat 250,000 to 450,000 tonnes, soybeans 350,000 to 550,000 tonnes, soymeal 150,000 to 350,000 and soyoil 0 to 30,000 tonnes.
The newswire survey deadline for analysts to submit estimates for USDA's March 31 reports is on Friday. Expect average estimates to be released later Friday or on Monday. The general trade expectation is -3 to -4 million out of corn acres and 4 to 6 million for soybean planted acres.
USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks report will be released on Friday March 31st at 11:00 am.
World Weather Inc. suggests the two-week outlook for Mato Grosso into Goias will continue to see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Fieldwork will be slowed by the rain, meanwhile, soil moisture will be increased and that will help to ensure favorable soil conditions for the second season corn crop.
FC Stone estimates corn acreage at 91.6 million acres and soybeans at 87.3 million acres.
Ethanol Production last week was 1.044 million barrels per day. That was slightly off the 1.045 from the previous week. Historically one could expect a drop in production into April. Today’s number was 4.9% over last year. Year to date pace is 5.0% over last year. USDA’s goal in corn for ethanol is a 3.4% increase.
Macro traders are eagerly waiting to see if House Speaker Ryan has the votes to approve his Obamacare repeal-and-replace bill at the planned vote today.
March 1 Cattle on Feed Report will be released Friday at 2:00 pm. Trade estimates are: On Feed 101.1%, Placed 98.9%, and Marketed 103.3% of a year ago.
Brazil meat exports have been almost completely halted due to the so-called Weak Flesh probe into allegations meat inspectors were bribed to clear the sale and export of adulterated meat.
Some of China's largest food suppliers have pulled Brazilian beef and poultry from their shelves in the first concrete sign that a deepening scandal over Brazil's meat processing industry is hitting business in its top export market. (Reuters)
Cold storage data showed beef supplies dropped by 36 million pounds which is the largest drawdown for February in 12 years.
Fed Cattle Exchange auction seen top trade at $136.50.
April futures pushed limit up during the auction yesterday then setback on profit taking. The premium of cash to futures is providing a reason for the funds and public to take long positions. The high on Wednesday tested the high made on January 4, 2016 in the April contract. Next resistance level should be $125.70.
Pork supplies in cold storage increased by 11 million pounds when the normal increase for February is 39 million pounds.
April lean hog futures were supported by firm cash markets and strong performance in cattle. Lean hog futures remain in a trading range between $66.00 and $72.82 for over a month. Look for an accelerated move in the direction of the breakout when this range is broken.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down 1.93 and select up .39. The CME Feeder Index is 130.02. Pork cutout value is down 1.92.
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