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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Demand Drives Post-Holiday Buying

Nov 26, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 26, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains futures are higher as there is talk of demand improvement. China may be back looking for soybeans while disruptions in wheat supplies around the world are keeping markets supported. Farmer movement is expected to be limited for the next few weeks. Weather conditions in South America become more and more important in the upcoming weeks. Argentina has more rain in the forecast with already less than desirable planting conditions. As of Thursday, Argentina corn planting was 59% complete compared to 70% done last year and 73% average. Soybean planting was 47% done compared to 56% last year and 44% average. Wheat harvesting was 18% done compared to 22% last year at this time. We should be getting another wheat conditions report from the USDA this afternoon. Most traders are expecting lower good to excellent percentage. Forecasts for US hard red winter wheat have a dry biased weather pattern which will prevail through the next two weeks. Virtually no rain or snow will fall in western crop areas and the few rain showers that occur in the east will be too light and brief to have a meaningful impact on the region’s soil moisture. December options expired on Friday with 1215 745 calls being abandoned and 415 puts were exercised when the futures closed at 745 ½. The EU is confident that Greece will get its next tranche of money to prevent near term bankruptcy. Spain elections over the weekend may hamper Madrid’s ability to push through fiscal austerity. The US "fiscal cliff" talks will influence headlines in the week ahead. Livestock futures finished strong on Friday in anticipation of post-thanksgiving pickup in beef and pork demand. Choice beef was up 1.44 and select down .20. Pork cutout value was up .22 on Friday. Look for steady higher opening in livestock at 9:05. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +6 3/4
Jan Beans   +6 3/4
Dec Wheat   +6
Dec Cattle Steady-Higher
Dec Hogs    Steady-Higher
Dec Dlr     +.00
Dec S+P     -5.50
Jan Crude   -.46
Dec Gold    -3.50
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Allendale Advanced Charts
March Corn found support at the $7.14 level. This is the new level of support that must be broken in order to negate the latest recovery attempt. On the upside, I have $7.75 as the level of resistance that must be broken to negate the sideways range and assume a new bull market is under way…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, known simply as PMI, showed a reading of 50.4 in November. That was up from October’s 49.5. Not only was this higher than the previous month but a reading over 50.0 are seen as economic growth. This is the first time in 13 months of a positive number.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
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